Excess mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave in Porto, Portugal

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to understand the effects of the July 2006 heat wave through the use of the heat index, in mortality (all causes) and morbidity (all causes, respiratory and circulatory diseases) in general, and in people over 74 years and by gender, in Porto. In this paper, the Poisson generalized additive regression model was used to estimate the impact of apparent temperature (heat index) and daily mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave. Daily mortality, morbidity and heat index were correlated with lags of apparent temperature up to 7 days using Pearson correlation. For a 1°C increase in mean apparent temperature we observed a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 1.7-3.6 %) increase in mortality (all cause), a 1.7 % (95 % CI: 0.6-2.9 %) increase in respiratory morbidity, a 2.2 % (95 % CI: 0.4-4.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 5.4 % (95%CI: 1.1-6.6 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity, and a 7.5 % (95 % CI: 1.3-14.1 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity in women, for the entire population. For people ≥ 75 years, our results showed a 3.3 % increase (95 % CI: 1.7-5.0 %) in respiratory morbidity, a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 0.4-5.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in men, a 3.9 % (95 %CI: 1.6-6.3 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 7.0 % (95 % CI: 1.1-13.2 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and a 9.0 % (95 % CI: 0.3-18.5 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in women. The use of heat index in a Mediterranean tempered climate enabled the identification of the effects of the July 2006 heat wave in mortality due to all causes and in respiratory morbidity of the general population, as well as in respiratory morbidity of individuals with more than 74 years of age.

Effects of temperature on mortality in Hong Kong: a time series analysis

“…The fact that these effects occur within a short space of time indicates a fast-acting mechanism (Ballester et al 1997). Respiratory difficulty occurs as a result of the accumulation of heat and humidity over time (Monteiro et al 2013). Furthermore, evaporative capacity is reduced, making an organism's sudation and cooling functions less effective.…”

The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

“…In recently published studies, excess mortality has also been evaluated separately during other extreme summer heat waves in various parts of Europe: for example in 2006, it was mainly in Western Europe (Fouillet et al, 2008;Monteiro et al, 2013;Knobová et al, 2014); in 2007, mainly in Central and Southeastern Europe (Overcenco, 2010;Páldy and Bobvos, 2010;Opopol et al, 2012;Bogdanović et al, 2013;Corobov et al, 2013;Stanojević et al, 2014); and in Central Europe, most recently in 2011 and 2012 (Páldy and Bobvos, 2012).…”

The accuracy of the heat index to explain the excess of mortality and morbidity during heat waves – a case study in a mediterranean climate

“…All 21 st climate scenarios produced by several global climate models anticipate a frequency increase in the duration and intensity of the heat waves (Planton et al, 2008;Monteiro et al, 2012aMonteiro et al, , 2012bMonteiro et al, , 2012c for temperate zone and in special for Mediterranean regions like Porto (Dessai, 2002(Dessai, , 2003Díaz et al, 2002aDíaz et al, , 2002bDíaz et al, , 2006Meehl, Tebaldi, 2004;Monteiro et al, 2012c).…”

“…Having this climate projections in mind, the negative impacts in human health caused by heat waves have been highly investigated either by climatologists or public health experts (Monteiro et al, , 2012a(Monteiro et al, , 2012b(Monteiro et al, , 2012c because the human adaptation capacity to adapt to this extreme events is still considerably low. The consequences of the several heat waves that occurred after the 90's in Europe (Rooney et al, 1998;Calado et al, 2004;Grize et al, 2005;Fouillet et al, 2006;D'lppoliti et al, 2010;Monteiro et al, 2012aMonteiro et al, , 2012c, in United States (Semenza et al, 1999;Weisskopf et al, 2002) and in other places (Tan et al, 2007) in mortality and morbidity were highly investigated and all the conclusions claim for a greater concern with the need of innovative tools to anticipate the human health risks during extreme climatic episodes.…”

“…The consequences of the several heat waves that occurred after the 90's in Europe (Rooney et al, 1998;Calado et al, 2004;Grize et al, 2005;Fouillet et al, 2006;D'lppoliti et al, 2010;Monteiro et al, 2012aMonteiro et al, , 2012c, in United States (Semenza et al, 1999;Weisskopf et al, 2002) and in other places (Tan et al, 2007) in mortality and morbidity were highly investigated and all the conclusions claim for a greater concern with the need of innovative tools to anticipate the human health risks during extreme climatic episodes.…”