Abstract:This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis (R-2) data are downscaled to 36 km × 36 km by nudging only at the lateral boundaries, using gridpoint (i.e., analysis) nudging and using spectral nudging. Seven annual simulations are conducted and evaluated fo… Show more
“…The WRF configuration used for this study consists of the Single Moment-5 class microphysics scheme (Hong et al, 2004), the RRTMG radiation scheme (Mlawer et al, 1997), the Monin-Obukhov surface layer scheme (Janjic, 2003), and the NOAA Land Surface Model scheme for land surface physics (Chen et al, 2001). Sea surface temperature update, surface grid nudging (Liu et al, 2012, Bowden et al, 2012, ocean physics and topographic wind options are activated. Also, 30 the feedback option is activated, meaning that the simulation of the nested domains can influence the parent domain.…”
especially at several hundred meters height from the surface; however over the Gulf of Genoa near the surface, the anthropogenic origin is of similar importance. A general assessment of other species was performed to evaluate the robustness of the simulations for this particular domain before evaluating OA simulation schemes. It is also shown that the Cap Corse site presents important orographic complexity which makes comparison between model simulations and observations difficult. A method was designed to estimate an orographic representativeness error 5 for a list of species and yields an uncertainty of between 50-85% for primary pollutants, and around 2-10% for secondary species, for these species model to observations comparisons are only little impacted by orography.
“…The WRF configuration used for this study consists of the Single Moment-5 class microphysics scheme (Hong et al, 2004), the RRTMG radiation scheme (Mlawer et al, 1997), the Monin-Obukhov surface layer scheme (Janjic, 2003), and the NOAA Land Surface Model scheme for land surface physics (Chen et al, 2001). Sea surface temperature update, surface grid nudging (Liu et al, 2012, Bowden et al, 2012, ocean physics and topographic wind options are activated. Also, 30 the feedback option is activated, meaning that the simulation of the nested domains can influence the parent domain.…”
especially at several hundred meters height from the surface; however over the Gulf of Genoa near the surface, the anthropogenic origin is of similar importance. A general assessment of other species was performed to evaluate the robustness of the simulations for this particular domain before evaluating OA simulation schemes. It is also shown that the Cap Corse site presents important orographic complexity which makes comparison between model simulations and observations difficult. A method was designed to estimate an orographic representativeness error 5 for a list of species and yields an uncertainty of between 50-85% for primary pollutants, and around 2-10% for secondary species, for these species model to observations comparisons are only little impacted by orography.
“…Unlike for temperature and wind, nudging water vapor concentration perturbs atmospheric mass in the simulation. Previous studies using WRF have chosen to employ smaller nudging coefficients for qv versus other variables Bowden et al, 2012;Bowden et 15 al., 2013;Bullock et al, 2014). Results discussed later in this work show some benefit from doing so.…”
“…The RCP 6.0 scenario (Fujino et al, 2006) assumes a modest degree of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions such that total radiative forcing will increase over the next century before stabilizing at 6.0 W m −2 in 2100. We downscaled these GCM projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model following techniques described by Bowden et al (2012) and Otte et al (2012). We conducted WRF simulations at 36-km horizontal grid spacing over the United States, incorporating the global climate forcing at the lateral boundaries, through the interior of the domain (following Otte et al, 2012), and in the sea-surface temperatures.…”
In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1-4°C and 1-5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).Implications: Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1-5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).
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