Examining effects of climate change and land use dynamic on biophysical and economic values of ecosystem services of a natural reserve region

Sannigrahi, Srikanta; Zhang, Qi; Joshi, P. K.; Sutton, Paul; Keesstra, Saskia; Roy, P. S.; Pilla, Francesco; Basu, Bidroha; Wang, Ying; Jha, Shouvik; Paul, Saikat Kumar; Sen, Shashwati

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120424

Cited by 109 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 112 publications

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“…The Markov model is constructed on the basis of stochastic process theory [ 46 ], which can predict the future status of an event, only requiring the data concerning the current time and a previous time [ 54 ]. The Markov model has advantages for predicting future land use change, because the continuous historical data are not required.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China

Chen

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Land use change has a significant impact on the structure and function of ecosystems, and the transformation of ecosystems affects the mode and efficiency of land use, which reflects a mutual interaction relationship. The prediction and simulation of future land use change can enhance the foresight of land use planning, which is of great significance to regional sustainable development. In this study, future land use changes are characterized under an ecological optimization scenario based on the grey prediction (1,1) model (GM) and a future land use simulation (FLUS) model. In addition, the ecosystem service value (ESV) of Anhui Province from 1995 to 2030 were estimated based on the revised estimation model. The results indicate the following details: (1) the FLUS model was used to simulate the land use layout of Anhui Province in 2018, where the overall accuracy of the simulation results is high, indicating that the FLUS model is applicable for simulating future land use change; (2) the spatial layout of land use types in Anhui Province is stable and the cultivated land has the highest proportion. The most significant characteristic of future land use change is that the area of cultivated land continues to decrease while the area of built-up land continues to expand; and (3) the ESV of Anhui Province is predicted to increase in the future. The regulating service is the largest ESV contributor, and water area is the land use type with the highest proportion of ESV. These findings provide reference for the formulation of sustainable development policies of the regional ecological environment.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China

Chen

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…Quantifying ecosystem services and revealing their relationships are beneficial to policy decisions and the sustainable management of ecosystem services [8][9][10][11]. Climate change and land use are considered to be two main factors affecting ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies [12][13][14]. In recent years, ecosystem services have been seriously threatened by climate change and socioeconomic development [15][16][17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Wang

Qiao

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Development of suitable ecological protection and restoration policies for sustainable management needs to assess the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on ecosystem services. The two ecological shelters and three belts (TSTB) are significant for improving ecosystem services and ensuring China’s and global ecological security. In this study, we simulated land use in 2050 and estimated the spatial distribution pattern of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil conservation from 2010 to 2050 under future climate change. The results showed that water yield, NPP, and soil conservation exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, while in terms of the temporal pattern, water yield and NPP increased, but soil conservation decreased. Water yield was mainly influenced by precipitation, NPP was affected by temperature and implementation of ecological restoration, and soil conservation was controlled by precipitation and slope. There was a strong spatial heterogeneity between trade-offs and synergies. In terms of the temporal, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and NPP. However, the relationships between water yield and soil conservation, and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs. In the process of ecological construction, it is necessary to consider the differences between overall and local trade-offs and synergies, as well as formulate sustainable ecological management policies according to local conditions. Understanding the response of ecosystem services to future climate change and land use policies can help address the challenges posed by climate change and achieve sustainable management of natural resources.

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“…Our study provides important data for reasonable protection and development of resources. Under the climate change scenario, species will move to areas similar to their current living environments [ 50 ]. Thus, adverse human interference should be banned to ensure that Sinadoxa corydalifolia will be able to migrate to suitable areas in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model

Huang

Chen

et al. 2020

Plants

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Sinadoxa corydalifolia is a perennial grass with considerable academic value as a rare species owing to habitat destruction and a narrow distribution. However, its distribution remains unclear. In this study, we predicted the distribution of Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region (the source of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River) under the context of climate change using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable distribution mainly occurred in Yushu County and Nangqian County. The suitable distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia covered 3107 km2, accounting for 0.57% of the three-river region. The mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and mean air temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) contributed the most to the distribution model for Sinadoxa corydalifolia, with a cumulative contribution of 81.4%. The highest suitability occurred when air temperature seasonality (Bio4) ranged from 6500 to 6900. The highest suitable mean air temperature of the driest quarter ranged from −5 to 0 °C. The highest suitable mean diurnal temperature (Bio2) ranged from 8.9 to 9.7 °C. In future (2041–2060) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: representative concentration pathway (RCP)26 (6171 km2) > RCP45 (6017 km2) > RCP80 (4238 km2) > RCP60 (2505 km2). In future (2061–2080) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: RCP26 (18,299 km2) > RCP60 (11,977 km2) > RCP45 (10,354 km2) > RCP80 (7539 km2). In general, the suitable distribution will increase in the future. The distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia will generally be larger under low CO2 concentrations than under high CO2 concentrations. This study will facilitate the development of appropriate conservation measures for Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region.

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Examining effects of climate change and land use dynamic on biophysical and economic values of ecosystem services of a natural reserve region

Cited by 109 publications

References 112 publications

Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China

Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model

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