Ex Ante Assessment of Returns on Research Investments to Address the Impact of Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4 on Global Banana Production

Abstract

The spread of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense tropical race 4 (Foc TR4), causal agent of Fusarium wilt of banana (FWB), has been projected to reach 17% of the global banana-growing area by 2040 equaling 36 million tons of production worth over US$10 billion. This potential loss has fueled (inter)national discussions about the best responses to protect production and small-scale growers’ livelihoods. As part of a multi-crop ex ante assessment of returns on research investments conducted by the CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers, and Bananas (RTB) from 2012 to 2016, four FWB research options were assessed: (i) improved exclusion, surveillance, eradication, and containment (ESEC) measures to reduce Foc TR4 spread, (ii) integrated crop and disease management (ICDM) to facilitate production of partially FWB resistant cultivars on Foc-infested soils, (iii) conventional breeding of FWB-resistant cultivars (CBRC), and (iv) genetically modified (GM) FWB-resistant cultivars (GMRC). Building on a risk index (Foc scale) predicting the initial occurrence and internal spread of Foc TR4 in 29 countries, an economic surplus (ES) model, cost-benefit analysis, and poverty impact simulations were used to assess impact under two adoption scenarios. All options yield positive net present values (NPVs) and internal rates of return (IRRs) above the standard 10% rate. For the conservative scenario with 50% reduced adoption, IRRs were still 30% for ICDM, 20% for CBRC, and 28% for GMRC. ESEC has IRRs between 11 and 14%, due to higher costs of capacity strengthening, on-going surveillance, farmer awareness campaigns, and implementation of farm biosecurity practices, which could be effective for other diseases and benefit multiple crops. The research investments would reach between 2.7 million (GMRC) and 14 million (ESEC) small-scale beneficiaries across Asia/Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America/Caribbean. The options varied in their potential to reduce poverty, with the largest poverty reduction resulting from CBRC with 850,000 and ESEC with 807,000 persons lifted out of poverty (higher adoption scenario). In the discussion, we address the data needs for more fine-grained calculations to better guide research investment decisions. Our results show the potential of public investments in concerted research addressing the spread of Foc TR4 to yield high returns and substantially slow down disease spread.

Improvements in the Resistance of the Banana Species to Fusarium Wilt: A Systematic Review of Methods and Perspectives

“…These data encourage discussions on the current status of biosafety regulations and laws on the marketing of GM products that face some challenges because of the regulation of these products in several countries [162,163]. Furthermore, their outlook indicated that investments in GM banana plantations would bring few beneficiaries, given the assumption that countries with export-oriented banana production would not adopt GM varieties because of political and consumer concerns [138]. In this sense, it seems reasonable to invest more in improvements based on crossbreeding, considering that there are sources of resistance to Fusarium wilt caused by FOC R1 and FOC TR4, which enables the selection of resistant hybrids within the progeny generated.…”

“…Using an ex-ante quantitative risk index model, Staver et al [138] showed that investments in different research areas assessed to address the threat and projected losses from FOC TR4 would provide positive returns and contribute to a reduction in poverty. Moreover, there would be superior returns in poverty reduction, especially in Africa, in the face of investments in the research areas related to the conventional improvement of cultivars resistant to Fusarium wilt, as well as in the research area related to improving exclusion and surveillance, as well as measures to eradicate or contain the disease, with 850,000 and 807,000 people lifted out of poverty in each case, respectively.…”

“…The considerable amount of data on the genetic diversity of FOC generated in recent years was primarily in response to the need to understand the population structure of the pathogen in different locations and the evolutionary mechanisms of the fungus that culminate in the emergence of new races [48,136,137]. In fact, the potential for public investment in research that addresses the dissemination of the FOC TR4 can generate high returns and substantially delay the spread of this disease [138].…”

“…Overall, in recent years, a major stimulus for the growth in studies on Fusarium wilt has been the emergence of FOC TR4 as the most devastating threat to bananas worldwide. A clear demonstration of this is the estimate that 17% of the current banana cultivation area, with an annual production of 36 million tons worth approximately US $10 billion at current prices, could be lost over the next 20 years because of Fusarium wilt, which would necessitate investment in research aimed at improving the crop in this scenario [138,143].…”

Incidence, Spatial Pattern and Temporal Progress of Fusarium Wilt of Bananas

“…Based on the disease distribution within fields and regions, hypotheses can be developed to understand the ways plant pathogens can be dispersed. The dynamics of the disease over time and information on the social and economic impact of a plant disease are key for implementing resources and efforts to guide strategies to manage plant diseases [ 41 ]. Regarding those assumptions, this work assessed the intensity, investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics, and estimated the yield and economic impact of FWB in 30 banana fields (94.6 ha) in six different production regions in Brazil.…”