Estimating worldwide benefits from improved bananas resistant to Fusarium Wilt Tropical race 4

Abstract

We assess the economic welfare implications of developing and introducing a gene‐edited banana with resistance against an emerging plant disease, Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense Tropical race 4, on global banana production. Using a model incorporating disease dynamics and diffusion of a technological solution, we find that a 5‐year delay in adoption results in discounted losses of $94 billion. Consumers always lose from delay, while the impact on producers depends on timing and severity of the disease. The results suggest that regulatory delay significantly decreases return on investment from research, and acceptance of a technological solution may depend on the distribution of benefits and costs across stakeholders.

Fusarium Tropical Race 4 in Latin America and the Caribbean: status and global research advances towards disease management

“…Undoubtedly, the use of resistant varieties is the best strategy for managing FWB. The importance of developing and adopting TR4-resistant varieties is emphasized by the fact that a delay of just five years in adopting such varieties could result in estimated losses of up to 94 billion dollars ( Silva et al., 2023 ). However, fully TR4-resistant genotypes to replace Cavendish or other susceptible commercial varieties are not yet available.…”

“…General overviews like this review and others cited in the introduction ( Pegg et al., 2019 ; Drenth and Kema, 2021 ; Silva et al., 2023 ) provide broad guidance on biosecurity measures and research options, but they may not be tailored to specific countries or territories. This lack of specificity fails to account for differences in institutional and human capacities, as well as disease epidemiology, which vary from one location to another.…”

“…Recent overview articles on the threat of plant pathogen invasion have cited the case TR4 ( Fones et al., 2020 ; Drenth and Kema, 2021 ; Ristaino et al., 2021 ) to highlight important research and biosecurity priorities to address food security and income losses. The threat that TR4 represents for the global banana sector has been addressed in recent scientific articles ( Drenth and Kema, 2021 ; Silva et al., 2023 ) and research efforts are increasing. Review articles have summarized specific aspects of TR4, such as the potential of biological control ( Bubici et al., 2019 ); epidemiology and management options ( Dita et al., 2018 ; Pegg et al., 2019 ).…”

Processes for regulating genetically modified and gene edited plants

“… 247 A modelling exercise suggests that regulatory delay can significantly reduce gains from a new technology for both society and industry. 248 This study modelled the impact of 4 scenarios compared with a ‘no adoption’ scenario: (1) Immediate adoption of gene edited solution with 100% adoption ceiling reached in 15 years; (2) Late Adoption, which incorporates a 10‐year delay but with 100% adoption ceiling reached in 15 years; (3) Late‐Modest Adoption, which incorporates a 10‐year delay but with only 40% adoption ceiling reached in 15 years; and (4) Exporter delay where major exporters do not adopt the new technology and there is a 12‐year delay. It has been estimated that without any solution to Fusarium oxysporum f.sp.…”

“…cubense Tropical race 4 compared with no adoption of a solution under moderate disease incidence (adapted from. 248 Scenario 1. Immediate adoption 2.…”