Evolutions of Asian Summer Monsoon in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 Models

Tung, Yu Shiang; Chen, Cheng Ta; Hsu, Pang‐Chi

doi:10.2151/sola.2014-018

Cited by 10 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 18 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Based on Tung et al . () and Kitoh et al . (), these results are consistent with the CMIP5 models’ overall performance in depicting the precipitation annual cycle within the EASM.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Tung

Wang

Chu

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu, produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

show abstract

“…Based on Tung et al . () and Kitoh et al . (), these results are consistent with the CMIP5 models’ overall performance in depicting the precipitation annual cycle within the EASM.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Tung

Wang

Chu

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…region better than the CMIP3 models (Jourdain et al 2013) but have a dry bias in the early rainy season (Seth et al 2013). Tung et al (2014) noted a delayed onset of the South Asian summer monsoon by CMIP models compared with observations.…”

Section: Asian Monsoon a Aogcms (1) South Asian Monsoonmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…They found that the CMIP5 models better reproduce the Asian summer monsoon domain than the CMIP3 models both for hit rate and threat score. Tung et al (2014) also noted that models that use the hybrid convective parameterization, combining bulk mass flux and CAPE closure schemes, are better than models with other convection schemes. Hsu et al (2011) and Kitoh et al (2013) assessed the GMA and GMI of each model against observations.…”

Section: Global Monsoon a Observationsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Even the best CMIP5 models cannot remedy this deficiency . Tung et al (2014) used a model-dependent precipitation threshold (i.e., a type of bias correction) to define the Asian summer monsoon domain. They found that the CMIP5 models better reproduce the Asian summer monsoon domain than the CMIP3 models both for hit rate and threat score.…”

Section: Global Monsoon a Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Asian Monsoon and its Future Change in Climate Models: A Review

Kitoh

2017

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study provides an overview of the Asian monsoon and its change as simulated by atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models and high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models, focusing on the seasonal mean circulation and precipitation climatology. After reviewing the drivers of and the elements that affect the monsoon, the ability of those climate models to reproduce the Asian monsoon is assessed. The Asian monsoon is better reproduced in the Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models than in the CMIP3 models, although biases remain. Projected future changes in the Asian monsoon at the end of the 21st century are then reviewed. Overall projections are similar for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models with increases in precipitation, albeit with weakened circulation in the South Asian summer, enhanced circulation and increased precipitation in the East Asian summer, and latitude-dependent changes in the winter monsoon circulation in East Asia. However, differences exist in the projected local changes, leading to uncertainty in projections.

show abstract

“…The present climate observation shows a steeper curve with MME (ALL), yet, it is comprised of the diffused 16 models. This may be caused by the coarse resolution and missing precipitation contributed by typhoons, Mei-Yu fronts and southwest flows of CGCMs (Stocker et al 2013;Tung et al 2014). However, the increase observation trend is higher than ALL even in the RCP45 and RCP85 experiments.…”

Section: Observed and Modeled Trendsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Evaluating Extreme Rainfall Changes over Taiwan Using a Standardized Index

Tung

Chen²,

Min

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The annual daily maximum precipitation (rx1day) is widely used to represent extreme events and is an important parameter in climate change studies. However, the climate variability in rx1day is sensitive to outliers and has difficulty representing the characteristics of large areas. We propose to use the probability index (PI), based on the cumulative density function (CDF) of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to fit and standardize the rx1day to represent extreme event records in this study. A good correlation between the area-averaged PIs of the observed stations and those of the gridded dataset can be found over Taiwan. From the past PI records, there is no distinct trend in western Taiwan before the end of the 20 th century, but a climate regime change happened during 2002 -2003. The dual change effects from both the variance and linear trend of extreme events are identified over the northeastern and southern parts of Taiwan, along with the island's central and southern regions, showing different abrupt changing trends and intensity. The PI can also be calculated using climate projection data to represent the characteristics of future extreme changes. The climate variability of PIs on the present (ALL) and future (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios were evaluated using the 16 Couple Model Intercomparison Projects Phase-5 models (CMIP5). The simulated present fluctuations in PIs are smaller than those of actual observations. In the 21 st century, the RCP8.5 scenario shows that the PI significantly increases by 10% during the first half of the century, and 14% by the end of the century.

show abstract

Evolutions of Asian Summer Monsoon in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 Models

Cited by 10 publications

References 18 publications

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

The Asian Monsoon and its Future Change in Climate Models: A Review

Evaluating Extreme Rainfall Changes over Taiwan Using a Standardized Index

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About