Evolution of Relationship Between Housing and Rental Prices and Inter-Urban Differences in China Under the Context of the Simultaneous Rental and Sales Markets Policy

Abstract

This research analyzes the relationship between housing and rental prices in 26 first-tier and second-tier cities in China before and after the policy of simultaneous rental and sales markets. The PVAR model and monthly panel data of these cities from June 2010 to December 2018 were employed. The study found that, before the policy of simultaneous rental and sales markets took effect, the housing and rental prices were relatively independent of each other, whereas the rental market in second-tier cities is affected more considerably by the sales market. After the enactment of the policy on simultaneous rental and sales markets, rental prices have a positive effect on housing prices, with this effect being more obvious in second-tier cities. The rental prices with the first-order lag have a significant negative impact on current rental price in first-tier cities. Considering the features of the housing market in different cities, the implementation of the simultaneous rental and sales markets policy needs to be more targeted and attention should be paid to preventing simultaneous irrational growth, both on the sales and rental markets.