Evaluation of the WRF Model to Simulate a High-Intensity Rainfall Event over Kampala, Uganda

Umer, Yakob; Ettema, J.; Jetten, Victor; Steeneveld, G.J.; Ronda, R.J.

doi:10.3390/w13060873

Cited by 18 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…For design storm construction, we used high-intensity rainfall output of the innermost WRF domain. Compared to the observation, the performance of WRF in simulating the storms is reasonably good enough to proceed with the results for design storm construction (Umer et al 2021). Due to the patchy rainfall pattern on 25 June 2012, fewer potential grid cells were considered compared to 13 April 2016 and 16 April 2016.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For initial and boundary conditions, the ERA5 (Hersbach and Dee 2016) dataset was utilized. The model simulation and evaluation follow the MP-CP-PBL procedure introduced and discussed in (Umer et al 2021), where M.P. refers to microphysics, CP-cumulus parametrization, and PBL is the planetary boundary layer.…”

Section: Wrf Model Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…WRF model result at 1 km spatial resolution is assumed to capture the spatial variability of the extreme precipitation related to these weather Fig. 1 The workflow of this study to construct design storms from WRF simulated gridcell-rainfall events and its comparison with design storms derived based on the alternative-block method, including their application for flood hazard modeling in the case study conditions (Umer et al 2021). Therefore, a strategy to capture this spatial variability of extreme rainfall events is to consider each gridcell as a virtual rainfall station for design storm construction.…”

Section: Wrf Design Stormsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Four HIREs used for design storm construction are simulated using the optimum WRF parametrization combinations (Umer et al 2021). The simulated daily precipitation for the inner domain of WRF at 1 km spatial resolution is shown in (Fig.…”

Section: Simulated High-intensity Rainfall Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment

et al. 2022

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Urban flood hazard model needs rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolutions for flood hazard analysis to better simulate flood dynamics in complex urban environments. However, in many developing countries, such high-quality data are scarce. Data that exist are also spatially biased toward airports and urban areas in general, where these locations may not represent flood-prone areas. One way to gain insight into the rainfall data and its spatial patterns is through numerical weather prediction models. As their performance improves, these might serve as alternative rainfall data sources for producing optimal design storms required for flood hazard modeling in data-scarce areas. To gain such insight, we developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) design storms based on the spatial distribution of high-intensity rainfall events simulated at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Firstly, three known storm events (i.e., 25 June 2012, 13 April 2016, and 16 April 2016) that caused the flood hazard in the study area are simulated using the WRF model. Secondly, the potential gridcell events that are able to trigger the localized flood hazard in the catchment are selected and translated to the WRF design storm form using a quantile expression. Finally, three different WRF design storms per event are constructed: Lower, median, and upper quantiles. The results are compared with the design storms of 2- and 10-year return periods constructed based on the alternating-block method to evaluate differences from a flood hazard assessment point of view. The method is tested in the case of Kampala city, Uganda. The comparison of the design storms indicates that the WRF model design storms properties are in good agreement with the alternating-block design storms. Mainly, the differences between the produced flood characteristics (e.g., hydrographs and the number of flood gird cells) when using WRF lower quantiles (WRFLs) versus 2-year and WRF upper quantiles (WRFUs) versus 10-year alternating-block storms are very minimal. The calculated aggregated performance statistics (F scores) for the simulated flood extent of WRF design storms benchmarked with the alternating-block storms also produced a higher score of 0.9 for both WRF lower quantiles versus 2-year and WRF upper quantile versus 10-year alternating-block storm. The result suggested that the WRF design storms can be considered an added value for flood hazard assessment as they are closer to real systems causing rainfall. However, more research is needed on which area can be considered as a representative area in the catchment. The result has practical application for flood risk assessment, which is the core of integrated flood management.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Wrf Model Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Wrf Design Stormsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulated High-intensity Rainfall Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment

et al. 2022

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“…In turn, Pohl et al (2011), concluded that WRF shows the best performance when combining the KF CU scheme, using very similar settings for the other schemes (i.e., WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) MP-, Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM2) PBL-, Dudhia short wave RA, and the RRTM long wave RA scheme). Recently, Umer et al (2021) analysed the capacity of WRF in simulation high-intensity rainfall events over the Kampala catchment in Uganda. Using a high-intensity rainfall event that caused a strong local flood hazard, they tested a large variety of parameterization combinations and found that the most successful combination consists of complex microphysics such as the Morrison 2-moment scheme combined with Grell-Freitas (GF) CU-and ACM2 PBL schemes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Physics Ensemble for Northern Sub-Saharan Africa

et al. 2021

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While climate information from General Circulation Models (GCMs) are usually too coarse for climate impact modelers or decision makers from various disciplines (e.g., hydrology, agriculture), Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provide feasible solutions for downscaling GCM output to finer spatiotemporal scales. However, it is well known that the model performance depends largely on the choice of the physical parameterization schemes, but optimal configurations may vary e.g., from region to region. Besides land-surface processes, the most crucial processes to be parameterized in RCMs include radiation (RA), cumulus convection (CU), cloud microphysics (MP), and planetary boundary layer (PBL), partly with complex interactions. Before conducting long-term climate simulations, it is therefore indispensable to identify a suitable combination of physics parameterization schemes for these processes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis product ERA-Interim as lateral boundary conditions, we derived an ensemble of 16 physics parameterization runs for a larger domain in Northern sub-Saharan Africa (NSSA), northwards of the equator, using two different CU-, MP-, PBL-, and RA schemes, respectively, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the period 2006–2010 in a horizontal resolution of approximately 9 km. Based on different evaluation strategies including traditional (Taylor diagram, probability densities) and more innovative validation metrics (ensemble structure-amplitude-location (eSAL) analysis, Copula functions) and by means of different observation data for precipitation (P) and temperature (T), the impact of different physics combinations on the representation skill of P and T has been analyzed and discussed in the context of subsequent impact modeling. With the specific experimental setup, we found that the selection of the CU scheme has resulted in the highest impact with respect to the representation of P and T, followed by the RA parameterization scheme. Both, PBL and MP schemes showed much less impact. We conclude that a multi-facet evaluation can finally lead to better choices about good physics scheme combinations.

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Evaluation of Cumulus and Microphysical Parameterization Schemes of the WRF Model for Precipitation Prediction in the Paraíba do Sul River Basin, Southeastern Brazil

de Souza,

da Silva,

de Almeida

et al. 2024

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Evaluation of the WRF Model to Simulate a High-Intensity Rainfall Event over Kampala, Uganda

Cited by 18 publications

References 56 publications

Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment

Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment

A High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Physics Ensemble for Northern Sub-Saharan Africa

Evaluation of Cumulus and Microphysical Parameterization Schemes of the WRF Model for Precipitation Prediction in the Paraíba do Sul River Basin, Southeastern Brazil

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