Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment

Abstract

Urban flood hazard model needs rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolutions for flood hazard analysis to better simulate flood dynamics in complex urban environments. However, in many developing countries, such high-quality data are scarce. Data that exist are also spatially biased toward airports and urban areas in general, where these locations may not represent flood-prone areas. One way to gain insight into the rainfall data and its spatial patterns is through numerical weather prediction models. As their performance improves, these might serve as alternative rainfall data sources for producing optimal design storms required for flood hazard modeling in data-scarce areas. To gain such insight, we developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) design storms based on the spatial distribution of high-intensity rainfall events simulated at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Firstly, three known storm events (i.e., 25 June 2012, 13 April 2016, and 16 April 2016) that caused the flood hazard in the study area are simulated using the WRF model. Secondly, the potential gridcell events that are able to trigger the localized flood hazard in the catchment are selected and translated to the WRF design storm form using a quantile expression. Finally, three different WRF design storms per event are constructed: Lower, median, and upper quantiles. The results are compared with the design storms of 2- and 10-year return periods constructed based on the alternating-block method to evaluate differences from a flood hazard assessment point of view. The method is tested in the case of Kampala city, Uganda. The comparison of the design storms indicates that the WRF model design storms properties are in good agreement with the alternating-block design storms. Mainly, the differences between the produced flood characteristics (e.g., hydrographs and the number of flood gird cells) when using WRF lower quantiles (WRFLs) versus 2-year and WRF upper quantiles (WRFUs) versus 10-year alternating-block storms are very minimal. The calculated aggregated performance statistics (F scores) for the simulated flood extent of WRF design storms benchmarked with the alternating-block storms also produced a higher score of 0.9 for both WRF lower quantiles versus 2-year and WRF upper quantile versus 10-year alternating-block storm. The result suggested that the WRF design storms can be considered an added value for flood hazard assessment as they are closer to real systems causing rainfall. However, more research is needed on which area can be considered as a representative area in the catchment. The result has practical application for flood risk assessment, which is the core of integrated flood management.

Spatial and temporal scaling of sub-daily extreme rainfall for data sparse places

“…6 Online archives of the Daily Monitor and New Vision were also cross-checked with printed matter but yielded no further reports of flooding. Additionally, some severe flash flood episodes (such as 25 June 2012 and 13 April 2016) captured by our media search are independently corroborated by other studies (Umer et al 2021(Umer et al , 2022.…”

Performance of Hourly Rainfall Simulations using WRF Meteorological Model for Calculation of Streamflow to Ta Trach Reservoir During 2020 Flood Season

“…Mô hình WRF được thiết kế với lưới đủ rộng để có thể nắm bắt được các quá trình hoàn lưu quy mô lớn ảnh hưởng tới Việt Nam, các miền con được thu hẹp miền lưới sao cho bao trọn khu vực nghiên cứu. Một số sơ đồ tham số hóa chính được tham khảo và lựa chọn từ các nghiên cứu quốc tế và trong nước sử dụng mô hình WRF trong mô phỏng, dự báo trường khí tượng như: Sơ đồ bức xạ sóng dài RRTM, bức xạ sóng ngắn Dudhia, sơ đồ bề mặt Noah và sơ đồ mây đối lưu Kain-Fritsch [3,5,6,8,18].…”

Potensi Penurunan Debit Banjir di Sungai Sepaku Akibat Pembangunan Bendungan Sepaku Semoi

“…Nilai intensitas curah hujan tersebut kemudian diubah menjadi Alternating Block Method agar didapatkan hidrograf curah hujan dalam model HEC-HMS. Alternating Block Method merupakan metode yang digunakan untuk memodelkan fluktuasi dalam pola hujan dan aliran sungai selama periode analisis, memungkinkan untuk prediksi yang lebih baik dalam analsisis hidrologi (Umer et al, 2022). Alternating Block Method dianalisis dengan persamaan sebagai berikut.…”