Evaluation of the subtropical westerly jet and its effects on the projected summer rainfall over central Asia using multi‐CMIP5 models

Zhao, Yong; Yu, Xiaojing; Yao, Junqiang; Dong, Xinning

doi:10.1002/joc.5443

Cited by 35 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Some studies attempted to explore this question in terms of atmospheric circulation anomalies. Zhao et al (2018) suggested that variation in the axis of the western Asian (40°-80°E) subtropical westerly jet plays an important role in changes in summer rainfall over CA. Water vapor over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) is closely related to rainfall over CA (Mason and Goddard 2001;Oliver et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Whole SST Anomaly in the Tropical Indian Ocean on Summer rainfall Over Central Asia

Meng

Zhao

2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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The effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) on summer rainfall over central Asia (CA) are investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis circulation data, Hadley Centre SST data, and GPCC gridded precipitation data for 1971–2016. Results show that the SST anomalies over the whole tropical IO play important roles in modulating summer rainfall over southeast CA via the subtropical westerly jet. When the SSTs in the tropical IO are in positive phases, the south Asian monsoon is weakened, which reduces summer rainfall in the Indian monsoon regions corresponding to less release of latent heat. There is an anomalous anticyclone over the Indian Peninsula and an anomalous cyclone in the upper troposphere over CA, corresponding to a shift of the subtropical westerly jet farther south over CA. The southward shift of westerly jet would be responded to anomalous cyclone at 500 hPa over CA and water vapor transported into CA through two steps from the Arabian Sea, above both contribute to more summer rainfall over CA.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Whole SST Anomaly in the Tropical Indian Ocean on Summer rainfall Over Central Asia

Meng

Zhao

2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…Endris et al [37] carried out a study in Africa and projected rainfall from 2070-2099 using General Climate Model (GCMs) on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) was first divided in 3 seasons which were; Jun until September (JJS), March until May (MAM) and October until December (OND). From the analysis, OND rainfall events to be increase while MAM and OND to be decreasing on most of Africa regions.…”

Section: Statistical Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Its Impact on Rainfall

Tarmizi¹,

Rahmat²,

Karim³

et al. 2019

IJIE

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This paper reviews the climate change impact on rainfall as well as extreme events occurrences. The global extreme weather contributes to the uncertainties of the climate trend and water scarcity problems to the whole world. Thus, numerical models such as General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the response of the global climate system to the expected increment of the greenhouse gases concentrations. However, the GCM cannot be directly applied to climate change impact studies, hence downscaling is needed. A large number of downscaling methods are available but there is no universal method exists at present that performs best for all conditions, depending on the application and this remains a subject of investigation. Therefore, this paper compares the performances among statistical and dynamical downscaling models that have been applied by different researchers in various purposes. It can be concluded that the statistical downscaling has been widely used and able to provide reliable climate projected results especially for Malaysia's climate variables. This review is very significant especially to the policy maker in deciding the reliable climatic methods for the long term planning and management of water resources. Besides, the reliable projected rainfall will be very beneficial in estimating water availability and water resource policy.

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“…Several studies have evaluated the ability of models to represent the observed EAJ climatology, location, intensity, and interannual variability. It has been reported that some individual models can generally capture the spatial structure of climatological summer EAJ (Song and Zhou 2013;Du, Bao, and Xie 2017;Zhao et al 2018) and its interannual relationship to the EASR (Lu and Fu 2010). However, by analyzing the output of the Community Climate Model Version 3, Zhang and Guo (2005) found a large bias in the simulated intensity and location of the EAJ, which caused unreasonable maximum precipitation to be simulated over East Asia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement of the simulation of the summer East Asian westerly jet from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Lin

Guo

2020

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

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The East Asian westerly jet (EAJ) plays a crucial role in affecting the East Asian summer rainfall (EASR). Therefore, evaluations of EAJ simulations are vital for improving the understanding and projections of climate change in East Asia. This study evaluates the simulations of the climatology and interannual variability in the present-day summer EAJ in the CMIP6 models and compares the results with those in the CMIP5 models by analyzing the historical climate simulations of 29 CMIP5 models and 21 CMIP6 models during the period from 1986-2005. In general, the CMIP6 models capture the EAJ more realistically than the CMIP5 models. The results show that the CMIP6 models reasonably capture the spatial features of the climatological zonal wind at 200 hPa and simulate a smaller zonal wind bias along the EAJ. The locations of the EAJ's core are at the observed location in nearly all CMIP6 models but in only approximately two-thirds of the CMIP5 models. The EAJ's intensity is closer to the observed value and exhibits a smaller intermodel dispersion in the CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 models also show an improved ability to reproduce the interannual variability in the EAJ's meridional displacement and have a stronger relationship with the EASR.

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Evaluation of the subtropical westerly jet and its effects on the projected summer rainfall over central Asia using multi‐CMIP5 models

Abstract: The first two leading EOF modes of the summer zonal wind anomaly at 200 hPa over 25–55°N, 40–80°E for 1961–2004 in (a) and (b). The normalized principal component (PC) corresponding to the leading modes of EOF1 (c) and EOF2 (d).

Cited by 35 publications

References 37 publications

Effects of Whole SST Anomaly in the Tropical Indian Ocean on Summer rainfall Over Central Asia

Effects of Whole SST Anomaly in the Tropical Indian Ocean on Summer rainfall Over Central Asia

Climate Change and Its Impact on Rainfall

Improvement of the simulation of the summer East Asian westerly jet from CMIP5 to CMIP6

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