Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China

Xie, Ping; Wu, Zhiyuan; Sang, Yan‐Fang; Gu, Haiting; Zhao, Yuxi; Singh, Vijay P.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.036

Cited by 30 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…As global climate change and human activities increase, the statistical scale of hydrological elements have changed, and the hydrological series, including precipitation and runoff, which are closely related to human production and life, have lost their original consistency. Scholars have conducted extensive and effective work in the diagnosis of water resource variation [26,27]. Xie et al proposed an approach to evaluate the significance of abrupt changes in time series at five levels: no, weak, moderate, strong, and dramatic change; and stated that human activities contributed much more than climate change to the abrupt changes in the corresponding surface water resources amount [26].…”

Section: Ordered Clustering Methods (Ocm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scholars have conducted extensive and effective work in the diagnosis of water resource variation [26,27]. Xie et al proposed an approach to evaluate the significance of abrupt changes in time series at five levels: no, weak, moderate, strong, and dramatic change; and stated that human activities contributed much more than climate change to the abrupt changes in the corresponding surface water resources amount [26]. Song et al studied the changes in the frequency of precipitation extremes and their contributions to total precipitation at different extreme percentile thresholds.…”

Section: Ordered Clustering Methods (Ocm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With the increasingly severe impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrology and water resources in river basins, non-quantitative research does not help in understanding the internal mechanism of hydrology [24]. Determining how to quantitatively distinguish the impacts of climate change and human activities on the hydrological cycle and the water resource formation process within a region has become a focus of academic research [25,26]. The lack of hydrological, soil, and vegetation data in the region cannot meet the requirements of climate and hydrological models.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Zhang

Wang

Zhou

2019

Water

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This study conducted quantitative diagnosis on the impact of climate change and human activities on drought risk. Taking the Kuye river basin (KRB) in China as the research area, we used variation point diagnosis, simulation of precipitation and runoff, drought risk assessment, and attribution quantification. The results show that: (1) the annual runoff sequence of KRB changed significantly after 1979, which was consistent with the introduction of large-scale coal mining; (2) under the same drought recurrence period, the drought duration and severity in the human activity stage were significantly worse than in the natural and simulation stages, indicating that human activities changed the drought risk in this area; and (3) human activities had little impact on drought severity in the short duration and low recurrence period, but had a greater impact in the long duration and high recurrence period. These results provide scientific guidance for the management, prevention, and resistance of drought; and guarantee sustainable economic and social development in the KRB.

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Section: Ordered Clustering Methods (Ocm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ordered Clustering Methods (Ocm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Zhang

Wang

Zhou

2019

Water

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“…The fundamental assumption of the conventional flood frequency analysis is that the annual maximum flood series (AMFS) is independent and identically distributed (iid), also known as the stationary assumption. However, this assumption has been challenged by climate change and human activities [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. Thus, the conventional stationary flood frequency analysis should be adapted to nonstationary conditions in changing environments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationary Flood Hazard Analysis in Response to Climate Change and Population Growth

Yan

et al. 2019

Water

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The predictions of flood hazard over the design life of a hydrological project are of great importance for hydrological engineering design under the changing environment. The concept of a nonstationary flood hazard has been formulated by extending the geometric distribution to account for time-varying exceedance probabilities over the design life of a project. However, to our knowledge, only time covariate is used to estimate the nonstationary flood hazard over the lifespan of a project, which lacks physical meaning and may lead to unreasonable results. In this study, we aim to strengthen the physical meaning of nonstationary flood hazard analysis by investigating the impacts of climate change and population growth. For this purpose, two physical covariates, i.e., rainfall and population, are introduced to improve the characterization of nonstationary frequency over a given design lifespan. The annual maximum flood series of Xijiang River (increasing trend) and Weihe River (decreasing trend) are chosen as illustrations, respectively. The results indicated that:(1) the explanatory power of population and rainfall is better than time covariate in the study areas;(2) the nonstationary models with physical covariates possess more appropriate statistical parameters and thus are able to provide more reasonable estimates of a nonstationary flood hazard; and (3) the confidences intervals of nonstationary design flood can be greatly reduced by employing physical covariates. Therefore, nonstationary flood design and hazard analysis with physical covariates are recommended in changing environments.

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“…River runoff has decreased consistently in the Yellow, Liao, and Songhua rivers but increased in the Pearl River because of increased precipitation in southern China and decreased precipitation in northern China combined with human activities (K. . The runoff of rivers located in northern China, in areas with arid and semiarid climates, is more sensitive to precipitation than in southern China (Xie et al, 2018). The 2.0 • C warming threshold will be exceeded under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), averaged across China, and will be around 2033 ± 15 a under RCP4.5 and 2029 ± 10 a under RCP8.5 (Chen and Zhou, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming

Liu

Wang³

et al. 2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. To quantify climate change impact and difference on basin-scale river runoff under the limiting global warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C, this study examined four river basins covering a wide hydroclimatic setting. We analyzed projected climate change in four basins, quantified climate change impact on annual and seasonal runoff based on the Soil Water Assessment Tool, and estimated the uncertainty constrained by the global circulation model (GCM) structure and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). All statistics for the two river basins (the Shiyang River, SYR, and the Chaobai River, CBR) located in northern China indicated generally warmer and wetter conditions, whereas the two river basins (the Huaihe River, HHR, and the Fujiang River, FJR) located in southern China projected less warming and were inconsistent regarding annual precipitation change. The simulated changes in annual runoff were complex; however, there was no shift in seasonal runoff pattern. The 0.5 ∘C global warming difference resulted in 0.7 and 0.6 ∘C warming in basins in northern and southern China, respectively. This led to a projected precipitation increase by about 2 % for the four basins and to a decrease in simulated annual runoff of 8 % and 1 % in the SYR and the HHR, respectively, but to an increase of 4 % in the CBR and the FJR. The uncertainty in projected annual temperature was dominated by the GCMs or the RCPs; however, that of precipitation was constrained mainly by the GCMs. The 0.5 ∘C difference decreased the uncertainty in the annual precipitation projection and the annual and monthly runoff simulation.

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Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China

Cited by 30 publications

References 40 publications

Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Nonstationary Flood Hazard Analysis in Response to Climate Change and Population Growth

Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming

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