“…To mitigate this challenge, participatory and collaborative modeling approaches have been developed and successfully applied to inform water resources planning under uncertainty (e.g., Kwakkel et al, ; Palmer et al, ; Werick & Whipple, ). These approaches include: the incorporation of expert judgment where quantitative data is scarce (e.g., Hall et al, ), challenging and reconstructing decision‐makers' underlying heuristics (e.g., Smajgl et al, ), and evaluating the robustness of management options across multiple scenarios (e.g., Groves et al, ).…”
Systemic threats to food‐energy‐environment‐water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision‐makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social‐ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision‐Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision‐making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.
“…To mitigate this challenge, participatory and collaborative modeling approaches have been developed and successfully applied to inform water resources planning under uncertainty (e.g., Kwakkel et al, ; Palmer et al, ; Werick & Whipple, ). These approaches include: the incorporation of expert judgment where quantitative data is scarce (e.g., Hall et al, ), challenging and reconstructing decision‐makers' underlying heuristics (e.g., Smajgl et al, ), and evaluating the robustness of management options across multiple scenarios (e.g., Groves et al, ).…”
Systemic threats to food‐energy‐environment‐water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision‐makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social‐ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision‐Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision‐making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.
“…The increasing need for water supply due to population growth and increase, economic growth, increased agricultural irrigation needs, and the growing desire to provide water supply for the environment is very potential creating pressure in the water resources management system in Makassar City. This condition is exacerbated by a decrease in the potential for raw water supply caused by a variety of environmental problems, high levels of pollution to water resources, and long-term climate change (D. Groves et al, 2017). The phenomenon of wasteful water use, pipe leakage, watershed pollution, and other problems is not only due to mismanagement of water resources, but the patterns, behavior, and culture of the community (consumers) are not involved in a conservative and sustainable management system (Fischbach et al, 2017).…”
The Kota Makassar water utility serving (<em>Perusahaan Daerah Air Minum</em> - PDAM) faces a significant problem in managing water resources for their drinking water supply. The problems comprise raw water supply, the vulnerability of water quality, infrastructures, costs, and climate change uncertainty. The availability of clean water is one of the problems in the field of national defense. Because water is the main source of life in all sectors, be it agriculture or livestock. This study is aimed at assisting officials in making an adaptive and resilient decision. It involves inter-and cross-disciplinary studies within Robust Decision-Making (RDM) in water resources management planning for drinking water supply and disaster mitigation in Makassar. This research applies a qualitative approach in data analysis; reviewing strategies used by the utility management to anticipate all uncertainty, long-term strategies feasibility from simulation models, analyzing potential vulnerability scenarios, and the trade-off for an adaptive and robust decision in water resources management planning for drinking water supply in Makassar through RDM. The novelty lies in the raw water management policy that is more adaptive toward potential vulnerability and presents a variety of raw water supply alternatives in the long term. Reviews against the document of drinking water Master Plan found that the absence of harmony along with a high level of anticipation towards the threat of climate change along with their impact, as well as the threat of the raw water supply limitations due to the exogenous problems beyond the reach of human beings capacity, will result in global and long-term impact.
Traditional top-down methods for resource management ask first what future conditions will be, then identify the best action(s) to take in response to that prediction. Even when acknowledging uncertainty about the future, standard approaches ( a) characterize uncertainties probabilistically, then optimize objectives in expectation, and/or ( b) develop a small number of representative scenarios to explore variation in outcomes under different policy responses. This leaves planners vulnerable to surprise if future conditions diverge from predictions. In this review, we describe contemporary approaches to decision support that address deep uncertainty about future external forcings, system responses, and stakeholder preferences for different outcomes. Many of these methods are motivated by climate change adaptation, infra-structure planning, or natural resources management, and they provide dramatic improvements in the robustness of management strategies. We outline various methods conceptually and describe how they have been applied in a range of landmark real-world planning studies.
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