Evaluation of surveillance and sample collection methods to document freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in cattle populations

Chriél, Mariann; Salman, Mo; Wagner, Bruce A.

doi:10.2460/ajvr.2005.66.2149

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(8 reference statements)

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“…The effect of season has modified surveillance strategies for infectious diseases. In Denmark, for example, it has been recommended that sampling for infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) occurs primarily during the winter months of the year (Chriel et al., 2005).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the comparison of the sensitivity of the currently targeted surveillance system for classical swine fever (CSF) in Denmark with that of a simulated non‐targeted system identified that the current system was twice as sensitive compared with the simulated, non‐targeted system (Martin et al., 2007a). In another Danish example, the sensitivity of the current surveillance programme for infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) was compared with three other surveillance scenarios targeting specific geographical areas and risk periods (Chriel et al., 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Bayesian Zero‐Inflated Predictive Modelling of Herd‐Level Salmonella Prevalence for Risk‐Based Surveillance

Benschop

Spencer

Alban

et al. 2010

Zoonoses and Public Health

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Impacts• Implementing reduction strategies for surveillance systems that were developed to protect public health is challenging. The apparently contradictory requirements for continued consumer confidence in food supply, and cost reduction for industry need to be met.• We use zero-inflated modelling to demonstrate how targeting farms in space and by risk factors has the potential to result in more efficient ways of conducting surveillance.• This allows assessment of the factors that affect herd infection status (introduction) and those that affect the sero-prevalence in infected herds (persistence and spread). Partitioning risk factors is valuable for directing practical risk-mitigating advice. SummaryThe national control programme for Salmonella in Danish swine herds introduced in 1993 has led to a large decrease in pork-associated human cases of salmonellosis. The pork industry is increasingly focused on the cost-effectiveness of surveillance while maintaining consumer confidence in the pork food supply. Using national control programme data from 2003 and 2004, we developed a zero-inflated binomial model to predict which farms were most at risk of Salmonella. We preferentially sampled these high-risk farms using two sampling schemes based on model predictions resulting from a farm's covariate pattern and its random effect. Zero-inflated binomial modelling allows assessment of similarities and differences between factors that affect herd infection status (introduction), and those that affect the seroprevalence in infected herds (persistence and spread). Both large (producing greater than 5000 pigs per annum), and small herds (producing less than 2000 pigs per annum) were at significantly higher risk for infection and subsequent seroprevalence, when compared with medium sized herds (producing between 2000 and 5000 pigs per annum). When compared with herds being located elsewhere, being located in the south of Jutland significantly decreased the risk of herd infection, but increased the risk of a pig from an infected herd being seropositive. The model suggested that many of the herds where Salmonella was not detected were infected, but at a low prevalence. Using cost and sensitivity, we compared the results of our model based sampling schemes with those under the standard sampling scheme, based on herd size, and the recently introduced risk-based approach. Model-based results were less sensitive but show significant cost savings. Further model refinements, sampling schemes and the methods to evaluate their performance are important areas for future work, and these should continue to occur in direct consultation with Danish authorities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian Zero‐Inflated Predictive Modelling of Herd‐Level Salmonella Prevalence for Risk‐Based Surveillance

Benschop

Spencer

Alban

et al. 2010

Zoonoses and Public Health

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“…Stochastic simulation models are commonly used to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of surveillance systems (4,9,25) and evaluate the effects of different sample collection methods (31), sample sizes (7), surveillance or eradication strategies (11,36,41,42,47,49,56) and serological tests (34). The effect of different sampling collection conditions when testing for infectious bovine rhinotracheitis was evaluated with a simulation model (8,40). A simulation model was also used to determine that the sample size for an abattoir-based survey was too small to estimate a true prevalence of scrapie of 1% with an accuracy of ±0.5% (50).…”

Section: Evaluating Surveillance Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Epidemiological models have been used to estimate the probability that disease is absent in a population or herd (7,8,9,13,23,27,28,29,32,33,35,40,51). It is impossible to prove that a population is free from disease or infection without testing each and every animal in that population.…”

Section: Document the Absence Of Disease Or Infectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological models to support animal disease surveillance activities

Willeberg

Lg²,

Lind³

2011

Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE

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Epidemiological models have been used extensively as a tool in improving animal disease surveillance activities. A review of published papers identified three main groups of model applications: models for planning surveillance, models for evaluating the performance of surveillance systems and models for interpreting surveillance data as part of ongoing control or eradication programmes. Two Danish examples are outlined. The first illustrates how models were used in documenting country freedom from disease (trichinellosis) and the second demonstrates how models were of assistance in predicting the risk of future cases, detected and undetected, of a waning infection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Both studies were successful in advancing European policy changes to reduce the cost of surveillance to appropriate levels given the magnitude of the respective hazards.

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Characterization of three commercial ELISA kits for detection of BOHV-1 gE specific antibodies in serum and milk samples and applicability of bulk milk for determination of herd status

Tignon

Baere

Hanon

et al. 2017

Journal of Virological Methods

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Evaluation of surveillance and sample collection methods to document freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis in cattle populations

Cited by 5 publications

References 8 publications

Bayesian Zero‐Inflated Predictive Modelling of Herd‐Level Salmonella Prevalence for Risk‐Based Surveillance

Bayesian Zero‐Inflated Predictive Modelling of Herd‐Level Salmonella Prevalence for Risk‐Based Surveillance

Epidemiological models to support animal disease surveillance activities

Characterization of three commercial ELISA kits for detection of BOHV-1 gE specific antibodies in serum and milk samples and applicability of bulk milk for determination of herd status

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