Epidemiological models to support animal disease surveillance activities

Abstract

Epidemiological models have been used extensively as a tool in improving animal disease surveillance activities. A review of published papers identified three main groups of model applications: models for planning surveillance, models for evaluating the performance of surveillance systems and models for interpreting surveillance data as part of ongoing control or eradication programmes. Two Danish examples are outlined. The first illustrates how models were used in documenting country freedom from disease (trichinellosis) and the second demonstrates how models were of assistance in predicting the risk of future cases, detected and undetected, of a waning infection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Both studies were successful in advancing European policy changes to reduce the cost of surveillance to appropriate levels given the magnitude of the respective hazards.

Role of infectious disease information system and risk assessment in control of livestock diseases in Indian perspectives: A review

“…These models quantitatively provide a representation of the transmission dynamics of animal diseases in time and/or space among individual animals and/ or animal groups (Garner et al 2011). A model therefore enables the efficacy evaluation of potential control measures and estimates the magnitude of the future, duration and topographical extent of an outbreak when the applications of specific control measures are provided (Willeberg et al 2011, Saegerman et al 2011.…”

Effective Surveillance Strategies Following A Potential Classical Swine Fever Incursion in a Remote Wild Pig Population in North-Western Australia

“…Surveillance methods can be evaluated and improved by the use of disease spread models. Such models, which incorporate important disease spread parameters, can be used to map potential outbreaks and evaluate the effectiveness of surveillance and control strategies (Willeberg et al., ). Models have been developed to simulate outbreaks of important transboundary animal diseases (TADs) − such as foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) and classical swine fever (CSF) − to assist in preparedness planning for policy formulation, decision‐making and economic impact assessments (Harvey et al., ).…”

Rabies in Ethiopia: modelling the burden and the effectiveness of control

“…In situations where ongoing disease interventions and related information are lacking, simulation models are essential tools (Willeberg et al, 2011). In the simulation models we built in Chapter 7, assumptions were used for some input parameters.…”