Evaluation of Space Traffic Effects in SBUV Polar Mesospheric Cloud Data

DeLand, Matthew T.; Thomas, Gary E.

doi:10.1029/2018jd029756

Cited by 10 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(70 reference statements)

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“…Where For this comparison, we used the MIMAS run A, in which the simulations are performed with increasing concentrations of CO2 and CH4. For the comparison, we applied the same calculation method to our model data as Hervig et al (2019) did on satellite observations, namely, we used a threshold of 50 g/km 3 for integrated water content because the PMC detection threshold for SBUV is 50 g/km 3 (DeLand and Thomas, 2015Thomas, , 2019.…”

Section: Solar Cycle Response In Ice Water Content (Iwc)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenhouse gas effects on the solar cycle response of water vapour and noctilucent clouds

Vellalassery¹,

Baumgarten²,

Grygalashvyly³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. The response of water vapour (H2O) and noctilucent clouds (NLCs) to the solar cycle are studied using the Leibniz Institute for Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) model and the Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport (MIMAS) model. NLCs are sensitive to the solar cycle because their formation depends on background temperature and the H2O concentration. The solar cycle affects the H2O concentration in the upper mesosphere mainly in two ways: directly through the photolysis and, in time and place of NLCs formation, indirectly through temperature changes. We found that H2O concentration correlate positively with the temperature changes due to the solar cycle at altitudes above about 82 km, where NLCs form. The photolysis effect leads to an anti-correlation of H2O concentration and solar Lyman-α radiation, which gets even more pronounced at altitudes below ~83 km when NLCs are present. We studied the H2O response to Lyman-α variability for the period 1992 to 2018, including the two most recent solar cycles. The amplitude of Lyman-α variation decreased by about 40 % in the period 2005 to 2018 compared to the preceding solar cycle, resulting in a lower H2O response in the late period. We investigated the effect of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the H2O response throughout the solar cycle by performing model runs with and without increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The increase of methane and carbon dioxide amplify the response of water vapour to the solar variability. The solar cycle response is reduced in the late solar cycle due to a smaller amplitude of Lyman-α variability in the second period. Applying the geometry of satellite observations, we find a missing response when averaging over altitudes of 80 to 85 km, where H2O has a positive and a negative response (depending on altitude) which largely cancel out. One main finding is that during NLCs the solar cycle response of H2O strongly depends on altitude. A negative correlation between H2O and Lyman-α is found in the NLC sublimation zone below an altitude of about 83 km, but a positive response is present at the altitudes above 83 km where NLCs form.

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Section: Solar Cycle Response In Ice Water Content (Iwc)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenhouse gas effects on the solar cycle response of water vapour and noctilucent clouds

Vellalassery¹,

Baumgarten²,

Grygalashvyly³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…The variation in Figure 5 is extreme, with the daily ice mass between 0 t and 2 t. Such variability at a fixed LT motivates us to consider another source of cloud formation, so we consider here the advection of space traffic exhaust. A typical vehicle releases 100–600 tons of exhaust during a single launch (Stevens et al., 2012; DeLand & Thomas, 2019a), which is far more than shown in Figure 5 for any given day. By way of comparison with Figure 5, the response in mesospheric cloud ice mass from a space shuttle main exhaust plume in the Arctic can be 262 t/day (Stevens et al., 2005a).…”

Section: Mid‐latitude Mesospheric Cloud Frequencies: 2007–2021mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These bursts were detected primarily by an increase in PMC frequency, although the cloud brightness can also measurably increase. DeLand and Thomas (2019a) recently studied the impact of all space traffic on relative changes to PMC up to 10 days after launches and found only a limited effect for the latitude band 65°–75°N. However, they emphasized that the small number of cloud detections at more equatorward latitudes (<65°N) prevented them from evaluating the potential link to space traffic there.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northern Mid‐Latitude Mesospheric Cloud Frequencies Observed by AIM/CIPS: Interannual Variability Driven by Space Traffic

Stevens

Randall

Carstens

et al. 2022

Earth and Space Science

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Recent advances in data processing from the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument on the NASA Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere satellite allow observation of bright mesospheric clouds at mid‐latitudes (<60°). When adjusted for the evolving local time (LT) of the CIPS observations during its mission we find that the frequencies of these bright clouds in the northern hemisphere show no trend from 2007 to 2021 and no dependence on the solar cycle, although the interannual variability is extreme. Rather we investigate the possible link with propellant exhaust from orbital vehicles, typically launched at lower latitudes. By filtering the launch record equatorward of 60°N using only those launches between 23 and 10 LT, we find a strong correlation with the observed mid‐latitude mesospheric cloud frequency variability between 56° and 60°N. Meridional winds at 92 km from a meteorological analysis system reveal that these morning launches occurred at the time of maximum northward transport. Based upon this combination of high correlation between the cloud frequency and the launch record plus favorable transport conditions, it is likely that space traffic has a strong influence on the interannual variability of these bright mesospheric clouds.

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“…Case studies have shown that one burst of these space shuttle‐generated PMCs can account for roughly 10%–20% of the total ice mass observed in one season of observations over the Arctic or the Antarctic (Stevens, Englert et al., 2005a; Stevens, Meier et al., 2005b). These bursts were primarily distinguished by an increase in PMC frequency, rather than brightness (DeLand & Thomas, 2019). However, neither the total contribution of space shuttle launches to the observed numbers of PMC nor the cumulative contribution of space traffic worldwide to the historical cloud record has yet been quantified.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…. These bursts were primarily distinguished by an increase in PMC frequency, rather than brightness (DeLand & Thomas, 2019). However, neither the total contribution of space shuttle launches to the observed numbers of PMC nor the cumulative contribution of space traffic worldwide to the historical cloud record has yet been quantified.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Cloud Formation From a Localized Water Release in the Upper Mesosphere: Indication of Rapid Cooling

et al. 2021

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Polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) occur in the summer near 82 ‐85km altitude due to seasonal changes of temperature and humidity. However, water vapor and associated PMCs have also been observed associated with rocket exhaust. The effects of this rocket exhaust on the temperature of the upper mesosphere are not well understood. To investigate these effects, 220 kg of pure water was explosively released at 85 km as part of the Super Soaker sounding rocket experiment on the night of January 25–26, 2018 at Poker Flat Research Range (65°N, 147°W). A cloud formed within 18 s and was measured by a ground‐based Rayleigh lidar. The peak altitude of the cloud appeared to descend from 92 to 78 km over 3 min. Temperatures leading up to the release were between 197 and 232 K, about 50 K above the summertime water frost point when PMCs typically occur. The apparent motion of the cloud is interpreted in terms of the expansion of the explosive release. Analysis using a water vapor radiative cooling code coupled to a microphysical model indicates that the cloud formed due to the combined effects of rapid radiative cooling (∼25 K) by meter‐scale filaments of nearly pure water vapor (∼1 ppv) and an increase in the frost point temperature (from 150 to 200 K) due to the high concentration of water vapor. These results indicate that water exhaust not only acts as a reservoir for mesospheric cloud production but also actively cools the mesosphere to induce cloud formation.

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Evaluation of Space Traffic Effects in SBUV Polar Mesospheric Cloud Data

Cited by 10 publications

References 40 publications

Greenhouse gas effects on the solar cycle response of water vapour and noctilucent clouds

Greenhouse gas effects on the solar cycle response of water vapour and noctilucent clouds

Northern Mid‐Latitude Mesospheric Cloud Frequencies Observed by AIM/CIPS: Interannual Variability Driven by Space Traffic

Cloud Formation From a Localized Water Release in the Upper Mesosphere: Indication of Rapid Cooling

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