Evaluation of Reservoir Inflows Using Semi-Distributed Hydrological Modeling Techniques: Application to the Esil and Moildy Rivers’ Catchments in Kazakhstan

Abstract

This study explores the potential application of the HBV model for simulating water inflow into the Astana reservoir in Kazakhstan. The Astana reservoir, with an area of 60.9 km2 and a capacity of 411 million m3, serves as a vital hydrotechnical structure for the regulation of long-term water resources. Positioned on the Esil River, this reservoir plays a crucial role in providing drinking water to Astana, the capital city of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This study presents a concise overview of the HBV model and includes hydrometeorological data as well as information from a digital elevation model constructed from altitude maps of the catchment areas of the Esil and Moildy rivers. To simulate the runoff from both rivers, the GAP optimization algorithm was employed. Model parameters were calibrated for the period spanning 1975 to 2020. The effectiveness of the model was evaluated using the Nash–Sutcliffe criterion, which confirms a strong correlation between the simulated runoff dynamics and observed data. This study’s outcomes reveal the efficiency of the selected optimal parameters, particularly for the 2020–2022 timeframe, during which the HBV model’s parameters were validated. Overall, the quality metrics achieved during both the calibration and validation periods are satisfactory, affirming the model’s suitability for short-term runoff forecasts, especially during flood events. Furthermore, the model proves valuable for assessing potential shifts in river runoff patterns under the influence of climate change.

Markakol Lake Level Regime as Indicator of Climate Change

“…On the one hand, increase in air temperature increases evaporation (Buis, 2022). At the same time (Zhu et al, 2022;Kumar et al, 2022;Serikbay et al, 2023), increase in the thermal background leads to increase in the melting of glaciers that feed the rivers inflowing Markakol Lake. This factor works in relation to the Markakol Lake, where there is a direct connection between rising temperatures and rising water levels.…”

The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Systems of the Yesil River Basin in Northern Kazakhstan

“…In Kazakhstan, recent studies have shed light on the tangible consequences of climate change and water scarcity [18][19][20][21]. However, investigations of this nature have been notably lacking in the northern regions of Kazakhstan [22][23][24]. Our study effectively bridges this research gap by focusing on Northern Kazakhstan, where inquiries regarding climate change and water scarcity have been conspicuously limited.…”

Climate-Driven Changes in Annual Flow Patterns: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Buktyrma River (Kazakhstan)

“…During the period 1976-2022, the average annual air temperature in Kazakhstan increased at a rate of 0.32 • C every 10 years, surpassing the global average of 0.18 • C every 10 years [2,3]. These pronounced alterations in climatic conditions have led to substantial modifications in the water regime of surface runoff in Kazakhstan's rivers [4][5][6].…”