The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Systems of the Yesil River Basin in Northern Kazakhstan

Abstract

The geographical location of Kazakhstan, situated in the central part of the Eurasian continent, has played a crucial role in shaping a distinctly continental climate. This positioning has led to Kazakhstan facing a significant challenge in terms of water resource availability. The country’s water resources are highly vulnerable to the dual pressures of climate change and human activities. It is noteworthy that the Yesil River basin is the sole region within Kazakhstan’s borders where water resources are predominantly generated, while all other river basins experience substantial outflows beyond the nation’s boundaries. This research undertaking involves a comprehensive analysis of long-term climatic data collected from meteorological stations located within the confines of the Yesil basin in Northern Kazakhstan. Additionally, the study encompasses the computation of water consumption and annual runoff within this region. Historical meteorological observations spanning from 1961 to 2020 reveal notable trends. Most significantly, a 1.2 °C increase in temperature is observed during the spring season. Winters have also become relatively milder and warmer, particularly towards the end of February, where temperatures have shifted from −16.2 °C in the first 30-year period to −14.6 °C in the second period. These findings underscore the ongoing climatic changes within the region, with significant implications for the management and sustainability of water resources in Kazakhstan.

Assessment of Hydrometeorological Impacts of Climate Change on Water Bodies in Northern Kazakhstan

“…According to forecasts, due to the expected decrease in transboundary runoff, by 2030 there will be a further reduction in the republic's water resources to 87.1 km 3 , in dry years to less than 50.0 km 3 [20]. In works on the study of water resources in Northern Kazakhstan, the main focus is on the endorheic lakes of SNNP "Burabay" and the Yesil river system [24][25][26][27]. The geochemical, morphological and geochemical indicators of the remaining lakes and reservoirs have been studied very little.…”