Evaluation of olive response and adaptation strategies to climate change under semi-arid conditions

Lorite, Ignacio J.; Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Ruiz‐Ramos, Margarita; Belaj, Angjelina; Rosa, Raúl de la; León, Lorenzo; Santos, C.

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2018.04.008

Cited by 46 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Also, some studies claim that there is not a significant difference between model performance; for instance, in Alburquerque et al (2008) differences between the DM and Utah model were not found when estimating chilling requirements for cherry cultivars in Spain, or in Ruiz et al (2007) chilling requirements of the evaluated apricot cultivars were very homogeneous according to both the Utah and Dynamic models, also in Spain. Both the Utah and Dynamic models still have room for improvement in terms of accuracy as found (among other chilling models) in Luedeling (2012). In the same study, the DM was recommended for warm regions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…The projections of the chilling accumulations provided in this study have a lower uncertainty coming from simulated climate scenarios (as indicated by IQR values) than the common uncertainty levels of impact assessments (e.g. Lorite et al, 2018;Tao et al, 2018). This is probably because these chilling models are based only on temperature, and there is higher agreement in the climate change signal related to mean temperature increases than for other climate variables.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

“…In fact, in absence of significant mitigation measures, global warming is likely to reach 1.5 • C between 2030 and 2052 compared to pre-industrial annual mean global temperature levels (IPCC, 2018). In this respect, several researchers (Campoy et al, 2011;Luedeling et al, 2009aLuedeling, 2012;Gabaldón-Leal et al, 2017) have pointed out that under this warming scenario, the fulfilment of chilling requirements for some crops and varieties is likely to be compromised. To develop suitable adaptation strategies for both the short and long term, reliable projections of chilling units under different emission scenarios or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs;van Vuuren et al, 2011) are needed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impact of climate change in global chilling accumulation by using GCM climate projections was analysed in , although the coarse resolution does not allow extraction of practical recommendations for Spanish farmers. With higher resolution, Luedeling et al (2009a) performed an analysis focused on the California region, and there are some other studies in other regions of the world (see Table 3 in Luedeling, 2012), but their results are still difficult to apply for helping in decision-making in Spain. In addition, recent studies working with multi-crop model ensembles suggest that ensemble results tend to improve as the number of ensemble members increases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Rodríguez

Pérez-López²,

Sánchez

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Growing trees are quite vulnerable to cold temperatures. To minimise the effect of these cold temperatures, they stop their growth over the coldest months of the year, a state called dormancy. In particular, endodormancy requires accumulating chilling temperatures to finish this sort of dormancy. The accumulation of cool temperatures according to specific rules is called chilling accumulation, and each tree species and variety has specific chilling requirements for correct plant development. Under global warming, it is expected that the fulfilment of the chilling requirements to break dormancy in fruit trees could be compromised. In this study, the impact of climate change on the chilling accumulation over peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands was assessed. For this purpose, bias-adjusted results of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used as inputs of four different models for calculating chilling accumulation, and the results for each model were individually compared for the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods under both RCPs. These results project a generalised reduction in chilling accumulation regardless of the RCP, future period or chilling calculation model used, with higher reductions for the 2071–2100 period and the RCP8.5 scenario. The projected winter chill decrease may threaten the viability of some tree crops and varieties in some areas where the crop is currently grown, but also shows scope for varieties with lower chilling requirements. The results are relevant for planning future tree plantations under climate change, supporting adaptation of spatial distribution of tree crops and varieties in Spain.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 58%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Rodríguez

Pérez-López²,

Sánchez

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The projections of the chilling accumulations provided in this study have a lower uncertainty coming from simulated climate scenarios (as indicated by IQR values) than the common uncertainty levels of impact assessments (e.g. Lorite et al, 2018;Tao et al, 2018). This is probably because these chilling methods are based only on temperature, and there is higher agreement in the climate change signal related to mean temperature increases than for other climate variables.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Chilling accumulation in temperate fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Rodríguez¹,

Pérez-López²,

Sánchez³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Temperate fruit trees account for almost half of the worldwide fruit production, with Spain one of the largest world producers. Growing trees are quite vulnerable to cold temperatures. To minimise the effect of these cold temperatures, they stop their growth over the coldest months of the year, a state called dormancy. In particular, endodormancy, i.e. a dormancy related to the plant's inner physiological factors, requires accumulating cool temperatures to finish dormancy (be broken). The accumulation of cool temperatures according to specific rules is called chilling accumulation, and the chilling accumulation required to break dormancy is different for each tree crop and variety. There are several methods to calculate the chilling accumulation, all of them based on temperature only. Under global warming, it is expected that the fulfilment of the chilling requirements to break dormancy in temperate fruit trees could be compromised. In this study, the impact of climate change on the chilling accumulation over Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands was assessed. For this, bias-adjusted results of 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used as inputs of four different methods for calculating chilling accumulation, and the results were compared for the near and far future under both RCPs. These results project a generalised reduction in chilling accumulation regardless of the RCP, future period or chilling calculation method used, with higher reductions for the far future and the RCP8.5 scenario. The projected winter chill decrease may threaten the viability of some tree crops and varieties in some areas, but also shows scope for varieties with lower chilling requirements. The results are relevant for planning future tree plantations under climate change, supporting adaptation of spatial distribution of tree crops and varieties in Spain.

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