Evaluation of meteorological drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the High Ziz River basin, Morocco

Abstract

One of the adverse impacts of climate change is drought, and the complex nature of droughts makes them one of the most important climate hazards. Drought indices are generally used as a tool for monitoring changes in meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and economic conditions. In this study, we focused on meteorological drought events in the High Ziz river Basin, central High Atlas, Morocco. The application of drought index analysis is useful for drought assessment and to consider methods of adaptation and mitigation to deal with climate change. In order to analyze drought in the study area, we used two different approaches for addressing the change in climate and particularly in precipitation, i) to assess the climate variability and change over the year, and ii) to assess the change within the year timescale (monthly, seasonally and annually) from 1971 to 2017. In first approach, precipitation data were used in a long time scale e.g. annual and more than one-year period. For this purpose, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was considered to quantify the rainfall deficit for multiple timescales. For the second approach, trend analysis (using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test) was applied to precipitation in different time scales within the year. The results showed that the study area has no significant trend in annual rainfall, but in terms of seasonal rainfall, the magnitude of rainfall during summer revealed a positive significant trend in three stations. A significant negative and positive trend in monthly rainfall was observed only in April and August, respectively.

Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi‐arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate

“…The SPI is a simple and suitable drought analysis index for different temporal and spatial scales using precipitation data (McKee et al, 1993). To calculate the SPI index, the gamma distribution is fitted to long‐term precipitation time series and is then converted to a normal distribution (Diani et al, 2019). However, it is essential to evaluate the precipitation data in connection with the gamma distribution in advance (Guttman, 1999).…”

“…Several drought prediction indices have been recently developed, of which the most widely used is the standardized precipitation index (SPI), which functions based on precipitation amount (Diani et al, 2019; Heim, 2002; Loukas et al, 2008; McKee et al, 1993; Ujeneza & Abiodun, 2015). Although precipitation plays an undeniable role in controlling drought events, evapotranspiration is also an important determinant of drought in semi‐arid and arid regions (Hou et al, 2013; Narasimhan & Srinivasan, 2005).…”

Influence of Precipitation on Osa River Discharge in 1966-2015 Period

“…Time lags between precipitation and other elements of the hydrological cycle are then observed . Drought is a climate feature defined as a noticeable lack of water that causes damage to the environment and the economy (Spinoni et al, 2016;Diani et al, 2019). It is very important to study trends in river runoff because they represent the integration of climate variables and non-climatic factors in a specific area.…”

Unsustainability Syndrome—From Meteorological to Agricultural Drought in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions

“…The other two types of drought arise when use of water resources exceeds renewal of surface and groundwater, or when water demand outstrips supply.Many drought indices have been developed to date, such as the Palmer drought severity index [26], decile index [27], standardized precipitation index (SPI) [28], streamflow drought index (SDI) [15], and standard contribution of rainfall to runoff (SCRI) [29]. Of these, SPI and SDI have been widely used in different climate zones to monitor and assess meteorological drought [30][31][32][33][34][35][36] and hydrological drought [37][38][39][40].Although there has been considerable progress in understanding the impacts of drought in terms of engineering, economics, social science, and geography, the complex links between human and natural processes need more attention. In arid and semi-arid regions with high dependency on agriculture, these links are more complicated, as they affect the livelihoods of local people.…”

“…Many drought indices have been developed to date, such as the Palmer drought severity index [26], decile index [27], standardized precipitation index (SPI) [28], streamflow drought index (SDI) [15], and standard contribution of rainfall to runoff (SCRI) [29]. Of these, SPI and SDI have been widely used in different climate zones to monitor and assess meteorological drought [30][31][32][33][34][35][36] and hydrological drought [37][38][39][40].…”