Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi‐arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate

Mirgol, Behnam; Nazari, Meisam; Etedali, Hadi Ramezani; Zamanian, Kazem

doi:10.1002/met.2009

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…To investigate the experienced drought incidents and their association with the water storage and the lake's water level variations over the LUB, two traditional drought indicators of scPDSI and SPEI are used in this study. Although the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is overwhelmingly utilized through the majority of drought evaluation studies, the authors ignored using it over the LUB because it was suggested that SPEI outperforms SPI in the LUB (Mirgol et al, 2021). It can be justified based on the fact that the LUB is more affected by increasing temperature and ET impacts rather than precipitation variations themselves (Mirgol et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model‐coupled GRACE‐based analysis of hydrological dynamics of drying Lake Urmia and its basin

Khorrami

Ali

Sahin

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

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Lake Urmia basin (LUB), in northwestern Iran, is under the influence of extreme degradation due to a number of natural and anthropogenic factors. The existence of the Lake is critical for the microclimate of the region as well as the quality of human life and wildlife, which necessitates an up-to-date and holistic analysis of its hydrological dynamics. In this premise, satellite-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) received from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission was coupled with hydrometeorological modelling and assessment tools to analyse the hydrological status of the lake and its basin. As a new gap-filling approach, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) (STL) decomposition technique was proposed in this study to reconstruct the missing TWS data.Integrating satellite precipitation data with the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) and WaterGAP model outputs, the hydrological status of the lake was investigated. The STL-based TWS turned out to concord well with the simulated TWS from the CLSM indicating the acceptable performance of the proposed technique.The findings revealed that the LUB had undergone an alarming hydrological situation from 2003 to 2021 with a total loss of 10 and 7:56 km 3 from its TWS and groundwater storage (GWS), respectively. The water level time series also indicated that the water level of the lake had diminished with an annual rate of À70 AE 21 cm=year corresponding to a total water level depletion of about 13:35 AE 3:9 m during the 2003-2021 period. The GRACE-derived TWS and GWS also agreed well with the CLSM simulations. Assessment of the extreme events of the LUB suggested that the basin suffered from a severe dry event in 2008 resulting in the depletion of its water storage and water level. It was also found that from 2003 onward, a critical hydrological setting had dominated the LUB with a negative hydrological balance of À0:96 km 3 .

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model‐coupled GRACE‐based analysis of hydrological dynamics of drying Lake Urmia and its basin

Khorrami

Ali

Sahin

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

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show abstract

“…However, despite what we might expect, the most intense droughts were detected with SPI. Although most research refers to the greater capacity of SPEI to identify droughts [92,93,94] there is no common agreement regarding the severity detected. In some studies in semi-arid regions higher intensities were detected with SPI [94,95,96], whilst in others a higher severity was always identified with SPEI [97].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Potential Ompact of Climate Change on Climatic Droughts, Snow Dynamics and the Correlation between Them

Hidalgo¹,

Lara²,

Pulido-Velázquez³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Climate change is expected to increase the occurrence of droughts with the hydrology in alpine systems being largely determined by snow dynamics. In this paper we propose a methodology to assess the impact of climate change on both meteorological and hydrological droughts taking into account the dynamics of the snow cover area (SCA). We will also analyse the correlation between these types of droughts. We have generated ensembles of local climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCMs) representative of potential future conditions. We have considered several sources of uncertainty: different historical climate databases, simulations obtained with several RCMs, and some statistical downscaling techniques. We then used a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to generate multiple climatic series preserving the characteristics of the ensemble scenario. These were simulated within a cellular automata (CA) model to generate multiple SCA future series. They were used to calculate multiple series of meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) and a novel hydrological drought index (Standardized Snow Cover Index (SSCI)). A linear correlation analysis was applied to both types of drought to analyse how they propagate and the time delay between them. We applied the proposed methodology to the Sierra Nevada (southern Spain) where we estimated a general increase in meteorological and hydrological drought magnitude and duration for the horizon 2071-2100 under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The SCA droughts also revealed a significant increase in drought intensity. The meteorological drought propagation to SCA droughts is reflected in an immediate or short time (1 month), obtaining significant correlations in lower accumulation periods of drought indices (3 and 6 months). This will allow us to obtain information about meteorological drought from SCA deficits and vice versa.

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“…One of the very common methods for calculating SPI and SPEI is the use of software packages such as the SPEI package in R studio (Silva et al 2022;Mirgol et al 2021), which strictly follows a xed mean method. And so, the user should be cautioned on the reliability of drought intensities for years early in the record, as these will be relative to meteorological conditions of the subsequent years and not their own historical ranges.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Between Fixed and Extending Means for Quantifying Historical Drought Events

Al-Kilani

Al-Bakri

Rahbeh

2022

Preprint

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Drought analysis has become an essential task, due to the impacts of drought on global food security and all aspects of human life. However, drought monitoring does not follow a specific formula but is more a process, thus it is important to examine the details accounted by using different approaches. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the most widely used for quantifying drought, represents drought intensity for a given time window based on a long-term precipitation mean for a time series. This paper briefly discusses the use of “fixed” or “extending” means; a meteorologist or a webapp recording drought in real time and documenting values in a fixed archive may be using an extending mean, as their long-term mean may change each subsequent year. Meanwhile, someone calculating SPI for historical years may consider that the mean precipitation time series up to his current time as the long term “fixed” mean. In this paper, the 3-month SPI for Al-Mafraq in Northern Jordan was calculated for the period 2011 – 2019, once using a fixed mean, and once using an extending mean method. The results show that no considerable difference in values can be detected (mean absolute error = 2%), but different drought categories may result from the two methods, particularly in the beginning of the time series. This paper strongly suggests that all details involved in calculating drought indices should be communicated when sharing drought-related data, and some terminology should be agreed upon. This paper also presents some suggestions when considering an approach or software for drought analysis and quantifying historical drought.

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Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi‐arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate

Cited by 20 publications

References 75 publications

Model‐coupled GRACE‐based analysis of hydrological dynamics of drying Lake Urmia and its basin

Model‐coupled GRACE‐based analysis of hydrological dynamics of drying Lake Urmia and its basin

Analysis of the Potential Ompact of Climate Change on Climatic Droughts, Snow Dynamics and the Correlation between Them

Between Fixed and Extending Means for Quantifying Historical Drought Events

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