Evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches: An analogy with medicine

Kwakkel, Jan H.; Pas, J.W.G.M. van der

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.06.003

Cited by 16 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…This study used many stochastic simulations to highlight that scenarios can have an effect, but in order to see the effect on real-life decision making, further investigation is warranted. One way to explore the effects on decision making could be through simulation gaming workshops with students, followed by workshops with decision makers, case studies of successful long-term infrastructure plans, and the creation of carefully designed pilot studies to compare these approaches, as recommended by Kwakkel and van der Pas (2011). Further exploration would also be required to understand the impact that the decision alternatives have on this analysis.…”

Section: 1029/2019wr026515mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Traditionally, model‐based assessments of different water resources decision alternatives (i.e., plans and policies) have been based on a single “expected” future (Giuliani et al, 2016; Hall & Harvey, 2009; Kwakkel & van der Pas, 2011; Morgan et al, 1990). However, this does not consider the significant uncertainties associated with drivers of change such as climate, technology, economy, and society (Döll & Romero‐Lankao, 2016; Maier et al, 2016; Shepherd et al, 2018), potentially resulting in a range of negative consequences when conditions occur that are different from those expected future conditions (Lempert & Trujillo, 2018; McInerney et al, 2012; Raso et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness

McPhail

Maier

Westra

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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Multiple plausible future scenarios are being used increasingly in preference to a single deterministic or probabilistic prediction of the future in the long-term planning of water resources systems. These scenarios enable the determination of the robustness of a system-the consideration of performance across a range of plausible futures-and allow an assessment of which possible future system configurations result in a greater level of robustness. There are many approaches to selecting scenarios, and previous studies have observed that the choice of scenarios might affect the estimated robustness of the system. However, these observations have been anecdotal and qualitative. This paper develops a systematic, quantitative methodology for exploring the influence of scenario selection on the robustness and the ranking of decision alternatives. The methodology is illustrated on the Lake Problem. The quantitative results obtained confirm the qualitative observations of previous works, showing that the selection of scenarios is important, as it has a large influence on the robustness value calculated for each decision alternative. However, we show that it has a relatively small influence on how those decision alternatives are ranked. This implies that despite the difference in robustness values, similar decision outcomes will be reached in this case study, regardless of the basis on which the scenarios are obtained. It is also revealed that the impact of the scenarios on the robustness values is due to complex interactions with the system model and robustness metrics.

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Section: 1029/2019wr026515mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness

McPhail

Maier

Westra

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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“…38,39,40]. With respect to the third challenge, evidence can come from various sources −pilot projects, quasi-natural case studies, simulation gaming, computational experiments, and theory− and research on DAP should utilize these various sources [41]. To increase the empirical embedding of Dynamic Adaptive Policymaking, a focus on quasi-natural case studies is advised.…”

Section: Outline Of a Research Agendamentioning

confidence: 99%

Grappling with uncertainty in the long-term development of infrastructure systems

Kwakkel

Walker

2010

Next Generation Infrastructure Systems for Eco-Cities

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Infrastructure systems are crucial to the functioning of society. Their long-term planning is therefore of great importance. Uncertainty about the future conditions under which an infrastructure system will function is of particular importance for successful long-term planning. The uncertainties about the future encountered in the long term planning of infrastructure systems is increasing due to developments such as privatization, liberalization, globalization, and climate change. Despite the increasing uncertainty, planning is still based on the outdated assumption that the future can be predicted accurately enough for static planning. We review the state of the art of an alternative planning paradigm that starts from the explicit recognition of the inability of forecasting and the need for adaptivity and flexibility. In light of the review, we present a research agenda identifying four areas of research: the methods and techniques employed for crafting adaptive policies, the institutional challenges for the successful implementation of adaptive policies, research into the efficacy of adaptive policies, and questions related to the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptiveness.

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“…Paying appropriate attention to interrelatedness at the infrastructure-land use interface potentially leads to synergies between road network development and regional or local land use improvements in an area. These synergies may enhance planning efficiency and overall area quality (Amekudzi and Meyer, 2006;Graham and Marvin, 2011;Kwakkel and Van Der Pas, 2011). From a financial perspective, integration efforts seem attractive as property value is expected to increase in areas where infrastructure Niels Heeres is a PhD researcher in the Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, the Netherlands, and mobility advisor at Grontmij; Sander Lenferink is a researcher/lecturer at Radboud University, the Netherlands; Taede Tillema is a researcher in the Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment, KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis; Jos Arts is Professor of Infrastructure Planning at the University of Groningen and strategic advisor in the department of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment; email: niels.heeres@grontmij.nl; s.lenferink@fm.ru.nl; taede.tillema@minienm.nl; e.j.m.m.arts@rug.nl Paper submitted April 2015; revised paper accepted October 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond financial value capturing? Interactions between value capturing and cooperation at the interface of road infrastructure and land use planning

Heeres¹,

Lenferink²,

Tillema³

et al. 2016

Town Planning Review

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To deal with tensions between functional interrelatedness and institutional fragmentation, road infrastructure planning is increasingly interested in integrated planning approaches. From a value capture (VC) perspective, integration offers possibilities for financially linking road infrastructure and other land uses. Additionally, VC may be expected to have value for the cooperation between involved, but often institutionally fragmented actors. This article explores the relations between the application of different types of VC and cooperation between fragmented actors in planning at the infrastructure-land use interface. Our findings point at a positive, reciprocal relationship between partnership-based VC types and cooperation among fragmented actors.

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Evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches: An analogy with medicine

Cited by 16 publications

References 45 publications

Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness

Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness

Grappling with uncertainty in the long-term development of infrastructure systems

Beyond financial value capturing? Interactions between value capturing and cooperation at the interface of road infrastructure and land use planning

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