Evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches: an analogy with medicine

Kwakkel, Jan H.; Cunningham, Scott; Pas, J.W.G.M. van der

doi:10.1109/infra.2009.5397883

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…This study used many stochastic simulations to highlight that scenarios can have an effect, but in order to see the effect on real‐life decision making, further investigation is warranted. One way to explore the effects on decision making could be through simulation gaming workshops with students, followed by workshops with decision makers, case studies of successful long‐term infrastructure plans, and the creation of carefully designed pilot studies to compare these approaches, as recommended by Kwakkel and van der Pas (2011). Further exploration would also be required to understand the impact that the decision alternatives have on this analysis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Traditionally, model‐based assessments of different water resources decision alternatives (i.e., plans and policies) have been based on a single “expected” future (Giuliani et al, 2016; Hall & Harvey, 2009; Kwakkel & van der Pas, 2011; Morgan et al, 1990). However, this does not consider the significant uncertainties associated with drivers of change such as climate, technology, economy, and society (Döll & Romero‐Lankao, 2016; Maier et al, 2016; Shepherd et al, 2018), potentially resulting in a range of negative consequences when conditions occur that are different from those expected future conditions (Lempert & Trujillo, 2018; McInerney et al, 2012; Raso et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness

McPhail

Maier

Westra

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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Multiple plausible future scenarios are being used increasingly in preference to a single deterministic or probabilistic prediction of the future in the long-term planning of water resources systems. These scenarios enable the determination of the robustness of a system-the consideration of performance across a range of plausible futures-and allow an assessment of which possible future system configurations result in a greater level of robustness. There are many approaches to selecting scenarios, and previous studies have observed that the choice of scenarios might affect the estimated robustness of the system. However, these observations have been anecdotal and qualitative. This paper develops a systematic, quantitative methodology for exploring the influence of scenario selection on the robustness and the ranking of decision alternatives. The methodology is illustrated on the Lake Problem. The quantitative results obtained confirm the qualitative observations of previous works, showing that the selection of scenarios is important, as it has a large influence on the robustness value calculated for each decision alternative. However, we show that it has a relatively small influence on how those decision alternatives are ranked. This implies that despite the difference in robustness values, similar decision outcomes will be reached in this case study, regardless of the basis on which the scenarios are obtained. It is also revealed that the impact of the scenarios on the robustness values is due to complex interactions with the system model and robustness metrics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness

McPhail

Maier

Westra

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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“…In a transitional world, urban planning is significantly challenged by the uncertainty of the future [47]. To cope with uncertainties and unprecedented changes of urban development, generating reliable knowledge and creating more predictable systems by command and control management is a common approach [48].…”

Section: Iterative and Adaptive Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards Sustainable Neighborhoods: Challenges and Opportunities for Neighborhood Planning in Transitional Urban China

2018

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Unlike many developed countries where sustainable development has been implemented at neighborhood scale, sustainable planning research and action has still been concentrated at the national level and little has focused on the neighborhood level in China. This issue was highlighted by the demand of facilitating sustainable development and significant transition of the socio-political context, which made the development of neighborhood planning even more urgent and challenging. Hence, this study aims to identify the major challenges, particularly related to the institutional aspects, for adopting neighborhood planning in the local community in China. Comprehensive literature review was employed to demonstrate the crucial position of institutional elements in facilitating sustainable neighborhood development and planning. A comparative study of the common characteristics for adopting neighborhood planning in four different countries was conducted. Based on the characters, the possible barriers hindering the practice of neighborhood planning in China were proposed and then validated with the in-depth expert interviews. The results show that there is little support from national policy and local governance, ambiguous legislation on community public management, as well as inadequate public participation and a weak sense of community. Corresponding policy implications and recommendations are included to provide insight for planners and decision makers to better utilize neighborhood planning to achieve sustainable urban development.

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“…However, Frey and Dym (2006), suggest that by drawing an analogy with the evaluation and testing of new medicine, a methodology can be developed. For testing new infrastructure planning approaches, this analogy implies that evidence can be gathered through a variety of methods, including simulation gaming, computational experiments using exploratory modeling and analysis (Bankes, 1993), and face validation with experts (Kwakkel et al, 2009). Currently, we are working along these lines to assess the efficacy of the approach outlined in this paper in more detail.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning

Kwakkel

Walker

Marchau

2010

European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research

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Airport Strategic Planning (ASP) focuses on the development of plans for the long-term development of an airport. The dominant approach for ASP is Airport Master Planning (AMP). The goal of AMP is to provide a detailed blueprint for how the airport should look in the future, and how it can get there. Since a Master Plan is a static detailed blueprint based on specific assumptions about the future, the plan performs poorly if the real future turns out to be different from the one assumed. With the recent dramatic changes occurring in the context in which an airport operates (e.g., low cost carriers, new types of aircraft, the liberalization and privatization of airlines and airports, fuel price developments, the European Emission Trading Scheme), the uncertainties airports face are bound to increase. Hence, there is a great need for finding new ways to deal with uncertainty in ASP. An alternative direction is to develop an adaptive approach that is flexible and over time can adapt to the changing conditions under which an airport most operate. Three adaptive alternatives to AMP have been discussed in the literature. This paper explores these three alternative approaches. Based on this, it concludes that these approaches are complementary and that it might be worthwhile to combine the three into a new, adaptive approach to ASP. A design that integrates the key ideas from the three alternative approaches is presented and illustrated with a case based on Amsterdam Airport Schiphol.

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Evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches: an analogy with medicine

Cited by 5 publications

References 54 publications

Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness

Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness

Towards Sustainable Neighborhoods: Challenges and Opportunities for Neighborhood Planning in Transitional Urban China

Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning

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