Evaluation of Historical CMIP6 Model Simulations of Seasonal Mean Temperature over Pakistan during 1970–2014

Karim, Rizwan; Tan, Guirong; Ayugi, Brian; Babaousmail, Hassen; Liu, Fei

doi:10.3390/atmos11091005

Cited by 34 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 61 publications

(113 reference statements)

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“…The two main projections utilized are drawn from Tier 1 ScenarioMIP: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Following the recommendations of previous studies (e.g., [57,[81][82][83][84][85]), this employs MME of CMIP6 for projection of extreme events over the study area. Many studies have remarked on the robustness of MME as compared to individual models due to cancellation of intermodel biases [59].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Ayugi

Dike

Ngoma

et al. 2021

Water

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This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) simulations are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons: March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The results show an increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) towards the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) relative to the baseline period (1995–2014) in both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very wet days (R95 p), very heavy precipitation >20 mm (R20 mm), and total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant changes during OND compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while a reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes may pose a serious threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are recommended to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extreme incidences projected for relevant policies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Ayugi

Dike

Ngoma

et al. 2021

Water

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“…The mentioned method exempts datasets from normal distribution requirements, non-missing values, and no outliers in a time series. Several studies (Ayugi et al, 2018;Ayugi and Tan, 2019;Mumo et al, 2019;Karim et al, 2020;Tadeyo et al, 2020;Ngoma et al, 2021a, b) have followed the trend test and estimation technique in trend analysis.…”

Section: Historical Datasets and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides, the spatio-temporal trends and the significance were calculated using previously mentioned statistical techniques. A number of studies have employed a similar approach to verify the robustness of the moddels in characterizing climatic trends over diverse regions (Ongoma et al, 2020;Tadeyo et al, 2020;Karim et al, 2020). This study also focused on uncertainties in the projections of mean temperature and quantify them in the form of probability density function (PDF).…”

Section: Future Projection Datasets and Data Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation and projection of mean surface temperature using CMIP6 models over East Africa

Ayugi

Ngoma

Babaousmail

et al. 2021

Journal of African Earth Sciences

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This study evaluates the historical mean surface temperature (hereafter T2m) and examines how T2m changes over East Africa (EA) in the 21 st century using CMIP6 models. An evaluation was conducted based on mean state, trends, and statistical metrics (Bias, Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Square Difference, and Taylor skill score). For future projections over EA, five best performing CMIP6 models (based on their performance ranking in historical mean temperature

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“…This study utilized an ensemble of six models from CMIP6 datasets that are verified (Karim et al, 2020) to accurately simulate the observed temperature over Pakistan. The individual model description and relevant information is given in Table 1.…”

Section: Models' Calibration and Standardizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

Karim¹,

Tan²,

Ayugi³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The present study analyzed seasonal (i.e., Dec-Jan [DJF] and June – August [JJA]) temperature change for the near (2025-2054) and far future (2070-2099) under SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios over Pakistan. The anomalies, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sequential Mann-Kendall trend test (SQMK), and probability density frequency (PDF) analysis were used to investigate future mean temperature variations. The DJF season projected higher increase in temperature in the northern (3.8 oC, 5.1 oC and 6.5 oC), followed by central regions (3.8 oC, 4.9 oC and 6.4 oC) under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The central region is likely to record significant increase in JJA (3.0 oC, 4.4 oC and 5.4 oC) mean temperature in far future under the given SSP scenarios. Compared to historical (PDF), the far future DJF temperature changes revealed significant higher warming over northern, central and then over southern regions under most of SSP scenarios. The southern regions are projected to possible rise in far future JJA temperatures by 2.7 oC, 3.3 oC and 4.3 oC, under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. The PDFs for JJA further verify the highest positive abrupt shift in temperature across the central region and then southern region. The future diverse seasonal temperature changes supports further examination of the associated mechanisms and factors responsible for temperature changes to address climate change.

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Evaluation of Historical CMIP6 Model Simulations of Seasonal Mean Temperature over Pakistan during 1970–2014

Cited by 34 publications

References 61 publications

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Evaluation and projection of mean surface temperature using CMIP6 models over East Africa

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

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