Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

Abstract

The present study analyzed seasonal (i.e., Dec-Jan [DJF] and June – August [JJA]) temperature change for the near (2025-2054) and far future (2070-2099) under SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios over Pakistan. The anomalies, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sequential Mann-Kendall trend test (SQMK), and probability density frequency (PDF) analysis were used to investigate future mean temperature variations. The DJF season projected higher increase in temperature in the northern (3.8 oC, 5.1 oC and 6.5 oC), followed by central regions (3.8 oC, 4.9 oC and 6.4 oC) under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The central region is likely to record significant increase in JJA (3.0 oC, 4.4 oC and 5.4 oC) mean temperature in far future under the given SSP scenarios. Compared to historical (PDF), the far future DJF temperature changes revealed significant higher warming over northern, central and then over southern regions under most of SSP scenarios. The southern regions are projected to possible rise in far future JJA temperatures by 2.7 oC, 3.3 oC and 4.3 oC, under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. The PDFs for JJA further verify the highest positive abrupt shift in temperature across the central region and then southern region. The future diverse seasonal temperature changes supports further examination of the associated mechanisms and factors responsible for temperature changes to address climate change.

Evaluation and projection of mean surface temperature using CMIP6 models over East Africa

“…For instance, the PDFs for projected change during the 2071 -2100 period relative to the baseline period (1961 -1990) over EA shows that the mean temperature will be 25.2 and 26.7 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, while the present study demonstrates that the projected change during the same period will be 25.6 and 27.7 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively (Figure 11 and Table 4). The results of the present study are in harmony with projected changes in T2m using CMIP6 over most regions (Grose et al, 2020;Fan et al, 2020;Tokarska et al, 2020;Almazroui et al, 2020a, b, c;Karim et al, 2021). The findings from this study illustrate higher warming in the latest model outputs of CMIP6 relative to its predecessor, despite identical instantaneous radiative forcing (Wyser et al, 2020).…”