Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Global Distribution of the Calliphorid Fly Chrysomya albiceps Using GIS

Hosni, Eslam M.; Al-Khalaf, Areej A.; Naguib, Randa M.; Afify, Abdalrahman E.; Abdalgawad, Ashraf A.; Faltas, Ehab M.; Hassan, Mohamed A.; Mahmoud, Mohamed; Naeem, Omar M.; Hassan, Yossef M.; Nasser, Mohamed

doi:10.3390/d14070578

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(50 reference statements)

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“…For future predictions, parallel datasets of bioclimate covariates were downloaded for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) covering the two time periods of 2050 and 2070 ( (accessed on 18 November 2021). These future bioclimatic data layers were also converted to ASCII format via ArcGIS v10.7 and used for future projections in Maxent [ 31 , 32 , 33 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using maximum entropy modeling methods implemented in Maxent (version 3.4.1), the habitat distribution of F. oxysporum under current and future climate change scenarios was simulated. In addition, some simple analyses were performed in DIVA-GIS software V7.5 including the envelope test between Bio 1 and Bio 12 and the histogram of annual mean temperature [ 32 ]. Both used presence-only data to predict the species distributions at pseudo-absence points [ 31 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fungus under a Changing Climate: Modeling the Current and Future Global Distribution of Fusarium oxysporum Using Geographical Information System Data

et al. 2023

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The impact of climate change on biodiversity has been the subject of numerous research in recent years. The multiple elements of climate change are expected to affect all levels of biodiversity, including microorganisms. The common worldwide fungus Fusarium oxysporum colonizes plant roots as well as soil and several other substrates. It causes predominant vascular wilt disease in different strategic crops such as banana, tomato, palm, and even cotton, thereby leading to severe losses. So, a robust maximum entropy algorithm was implemented in the well-known modeling program Maxent to forecast the current and future global distribution of F. oxysporum under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. The Maxent model was calibrated using 1885 occurrence points. The resulting models were fit with AUC and TSS values equal to 0.9 (±0.001) and 0.7, respectively. Increasing temperatures due to global warming caused differences in habitat suitability between the current and future distributions of F. oxysporum, especially in Europe. The most effective parameter of this fungus distribution was the annual mean temperature (Bio 1); the two-dimensional niche analysis indicated that the fungus has a wide precipitation range because it can live in both dry and rainy habitats as well as a range of temperatures in which it can live to certain limits. The predicted shifts should act as an alarm sign for decision makers, particularly in countries that depend on such staple crops harmed by the fungus.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fungus under a Changing Climate: Modeling the Current and Future Global Distribution of Fusarium oxysporum Using Geographical Information System Data

et al. 2023

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“…Run linear features, quadratic features, hinge features, and product features. Then, 75% of the randomly selected occurrence records were used as the training set with the remaining 25% as the test set to construct the MaxEnt prediction model 47 . For each training partition, 10 replications were generated and the results were averaged after 500 iterations at the end 48 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of global potential suitable habitats of Nicotiana alata Link et Otto based on MaxEnt model

Zhang

Chen

Gao

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Nicotiana alata Link et Otto, widely used in landscaping, is not only of great ornamental value but also of high commercial and medical value. The global potential habitat of N. alata and the environmental factors affecting its distribution are not that clear at present. To provide a reference for the reasonable and extensive planting of N. alata now and in the future, the MaxEnt model was used to predict its global suitable habitats under current and future climate conditions, respectively, based on global geographic distribution data of N. alata and the current and future world bioclimatic variables. The results showed that mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), precipitation of driest month (bio14), precipitation seasonality (bio15) and max temperature of warmest month (bio5), were the key bioclimatic variables governing the distribution of N. alata. The global suitable habitats of N. alata were mainly distributed in Europe, the United States, southeastern South America, and China under current climate conditions. Compared with current climate conditions, the future climate decreased suitable habitats of N. alata under SSP1-2.6, and SSP2-4.5 scenario and increased suitable habitats of N. alata under SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climatic scenarios. The results provided valuable information and theoretical reference for the reasonable planting of N. alata.

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“…The ecological niche and habitat suitability of S. dux and S. haemorrhoidalis were assessed using the maximum entropy method in Maxent v3.4.3e [44]. The statistical power of this method resulted in robust predictive models [45].…”

Section: Environmental Niche Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to assess the distribution of the target species, important bioclimatic parameters were found using the Jackknife test [46]. The expected model accuracy was also measured using the True Skill Statistic (TSS) [44]. The TSS value can be anywhere between −1 and 1, with close values to 1 indicating a strong link and values to −1 indicating a weak relationship between the distribution and the predictive model [47,49].…”

Section: Model Robustnessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Potential Distribution of Sarcophaga dux and Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis under Climate Change

Al-Khalaf,

Nasser,

Hosni

2023

Diversity

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Climate change has a direct impact on biodiversity, affecting ecosystems and altering their balance. Many taxa, including insects, are likely to be affected by climate change in terms of geographic distribution. Sarcophagid flies, such as Sarcophaga dux and Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis, are important flies because of their apparent ecological, forensic, and medical significance. Global habitat suitability varies as a result of climate change. In wildlife management, models that predict species’ spatial distribution are being used more and more, which emphasizes the need for reliable methods to evaluate their accuracy. Consequently, the statistical robustness of maximum entropy was implemented in Maxent to model the current and future global distribution of both flies, involving occurrence data of 155 and 87 points for S. dux and S. haemorrhoidalis, respectively. Based on the Pearson correlation and Jackknife test, five bioclimatic variables were used for current and future predictive models. For future models, two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070 were applied. Both statistical parameters, AUC and TSS, were used to assess the resulting models with values equal to 0.80 (±0.01) and 0.9, respectively, for S. dux and equal to 0.86 (±0.01) and 0.92 for S. haemorrhoidalis. The resulting models for S. dux showed high and very high suitability in Europe, Tropical Africa, India, Canada, the United States from Alaska to Florida, Brazil, and Australia. In the case of S. haemorrhoidalis Europe and North and South America displayed low to medium suitability, but North Africa, including Egypt; Tropical Africa; Asia, including Saudi Arabia, India, and China; and Australia showed increased suitability. Decision-makers are put in conflict with their duties to avert destruction in the economic, medical, and ecological sectors by such anticipated models, and use these predictive models as a cornerstone for building a control strategy for such forensically important flies at local spatial scales.

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Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Global Distribution of the Calliphorid Fly Chrysomya albiceps Using GIS

Cited by 12 publications

References 33 publications

Fungus under a Changing Climate: Modeling the Current and Future Global Distribution of Fusarium oxysporum Using Geographical Information System Data

Fungus under a Changing Climate: Modeling the Current and Future Global Distribution of Fusarium oxysporum Using Geographical Information System Data

Prediction of global potential suitable habitats of Nicotiana alata Link et Otto based on MaxEnt model

Global Potential Distribution of Sarcophaga dux and Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis under Climate Change

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