Prediction of global potential suitable habitats of Nicotiana alata Link et Otto based on MaxEnt model

Zhang, Yanfang; Chen, Shutong; Gao, Yun; Yang, Long; Yu, Hua

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-29678-7

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 55 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In line with findings from previous research, it is crucial to recognize that, apart from climate, elevation exerts a significant influence on species distribution [48], while soil composition also contributes to shaping species distributions [49].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

“…The results revealed that bio 16 and bio 5 were the most significant predictors influencing the distribution of Acacia senegal, as shown in Table 3. [48,49] According to our findings, approximately 25.4% of Sudan's Gum Arabic area is potentially suitable for Acacia senegal, and for the period of 2021-2100, approximately 46% to 62% of the area is potentially suitable for SSP2-4.5, whereas the new suitable area ranges from 13.5% to 17.1%. Significant increases were projected under future climatic 2100 scenarios, with several currently unsuitable areas becoming suitable under all the climatic models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Response of Species to the Impact of Climate Change in the Gum Arabic Belt, Sudan: A Case Study in Acacia senegal

Elhassan,

Kouassi,

Abrha

et al. 2024

Int. J.Environ. Clim. Change.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Sustainable management strategies of trees are important for indigenous agroforestry plant species, such as Acacia. Senegal (A. Senegal), due to the impacts of rapid population growth, land use and climate change. The objective of this investigation was to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of A.senegal in the Gum Arabic belt in Sudan in current (1985–2000) and future climate scenarios (2021–2100). Bioclimatic data was used for modeling purposes utilizing Maxent, with the assessment of model precision conducted through the utilization of the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and shown a high goodness-of-it (AUC=0.905±0.003 ). Significant differences were shown in species distribution between current and future periods under selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, climate scenario. Our findings indicated that the main predictors influence the distribution of the species were precipitation of wettest quarter and maximum temperature of warmest month. Under the current potential distribution (25.4%), it is projected that Acacia Senegal would expand 36.2%-87.7% (SSP2-4.5) and 38.9-42.5% (SSP5-8.5). It is expected that A.cacia Senegal will create new environments suitable for it due to expected climate changes. Hence, the research necessitates the formulation of a strategic plan aimed to rehabilitation plantations of Acacia senegal and cultivation these species within existing and prospective habitats conducive to their existence.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

Response of Species to the Impact of Climate Change in the Gum Arabic Belt, Sudan: A Case Study in Acacia senegal

Elhassan,

Kouassi,

Abrha

et al. 2024

Int. J.Environ. Clim. Change.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The value of Vi at a specific point, P, during a given period is denoted by “pi”, and “fi” signifies the percentage of points in the study area where Vi is less than “pi” [ 68 ]. The calculation of the MESS values was based on the following criteria: (1) when fi = 0, the MESS was calculated as 100 × (p − mini)/(maxi − mini), indicating the lower limit of environmental suitability; (2) for values of fi between 0 and 50, the MESS was 2 fi, suggesting a gradient of increasing similarity; (3) for fi values greater than 50 and less than 100, the MESS was 2 × (100 − fi), reflecting a gradient of decreasing similarity; and (4) when fi = 100, the formula was modified to 100 × (maxi − pi)/(maxi − mini), indicating the upper limit of environmental suitability [ 69 , 70 , 71 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate as a Predictive Factor for Invasion: Unravelling the Range Dynamics of Carpomya vesuviana Costa

Feng,

Guo,

Gao

2024

Insects

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Invasive alien species (IAS) significantly affect global native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health. Carpomya vesuviana Costa, 1854 (Diptera: Tephritidae), a significant global IAS, affects various date species, leading to substantial economic losses and adverse effects on human health and the environment. This study employed biomod2 ensemble models, multivariate environmental similarity surface and most dissimilar variable analyses, and ecological niche dynamics based on environmental and species data to predict the potential distribution of C. vesuviana and explore the environmental variables affecting observed patterns and impacts. Compared to native ranges, ecological niche shifts at invaded sites increased the invasion risk of C. vesuviana globally. The potential geographical distribution was primarily in Asia, Africa, and Australia, with a gradual increase in suitability with time and radiation levels. The potential geographic distribution centre of C. vesuviana is likely to shift poleward between the present and the 2090s. We also show that precipitation is a key factor influencing the likely future distribution of this species. In conclusion, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographic range and ecological niche of C. vesuviana, requiring effective transnational management strategies to mitigate its impacts on the natural environment and public health during the Anthropocene. This study aims to assess the potential threat of C. vesuviana to date palms globally through quantitative analytical methods. By modelling and analysing its potential geographic distribution, ecological niche, and environmental similarities, this paper predicts the pest’s dispersal potential and possible transfer trends in geographic centres of mass in order to provide prevention and control strategies for the global date palm industry.

show abstract

“…In the study of species distribution, environmental variables are the main leading factors of species niches at large spatial scales [53,54]. We selected 37 environmental variables that may affect the growth distribution of D. involucrata and predicted the current and future suitable distribution areas in our study.…”

Section: Environmental Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Potential Habitat Distribution of Relict Plant Davidia involucrata in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

Wang,

Li,

Cui

et al. 2024

Forests

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Davidia involucrata Baill. 1871 (D. involucrata), as a tertiary relict plant unique to China, is a national Class I protected plant with high economic value. Oil extracted from its seeds and peels can be used for both consumption and industrial purposes. It has become a popular income-earning export tree in China because of its graceful posture and beautiful white bracts. Climate change affects the distribution of the species’ potential habitat areas. Thus, studying its natural distribution pattern and future potential habitat distribution changes has great significance for the sustainable resource utilization and biodiversity conservation of D. involucrata. Here, we employed the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software to predict the current and future (the 2050s and 2070s) potential habitats of D. involucrata via 130 species distribution records and 37 environmental variables. Meanwhile, we used the jackknife method to assess the importance of environmental factors. Our results showed the following: (1) When the RM = 4 and FC = LQHPT, the MaxEnt model exhibited the lowest complexity and overfitting degree while achieving high model prediction accuracy. The area under the curve (AUC) value of the simulated training was 0.958, indicating an excellent forecast. (2) Under the current climate scenario, D. involucrata was mainly concentrated in eastern Sichuan, western Hubei, northern Guizhou, and northwestern Hunan, with an area of 98.02 × 104 km2. (3) The precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18, 30%), mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9, 24.4%), annual mean radiation (Bio20, 14.6%), and elevation (ele, 12.7%) were the main environmental factors affecting its habitat distribution; the t contribution was 82.1%. (4) Under different future climate scenarios, the potential habitat area of D. involucrata decreased overall. Compared with the current climate scenario, the areas of potential habitats gradually decreased in both the 2050s and 2070s under the ssp126 and ssp585 climate scenarios but decreased in the 2050s and then increased in the 2070s under the ssp370 climate scenario. Therefore, it is of great significance to track and monitor the existing population or community on the basis of the possible changes in its distribution area. Moreover, the artificial breeding of its seedlings should be considered in the future to improve the quality of its germplasm resources. In summary, our findings can provide a scientific understanding of D. involucrata distribution in China and are conducive to conservation and utilization.

show abstract

Prediction of global potential suitable habitats of Nicotiana alata Link et Otto based on MaxEnt model

Cited by 11 publications

References 55 publications

Response of Species to the Impact of Climate Change in the Gum Arabic Belt, Sudan: A Case Study in Acacia senegal

Response of Species to the Impact of Climate Change in the Gum Arabic Belt, Sudan: A Case Study in Acacia senegal

Climate as a Predictive Factor for Invasion: Unravelling the Range Dynamics of Carpomya vesuviana Costa

Predicting the Potential Habitat Distribution of Relict Plant Davidia involucrata in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About