Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide

Huang, Shaochun; Kumar, Rohini; Flörke, Martina; Yang, Tao; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kraft, Philipp; Gao, Chao; Gelfan, Alexander; Liersch, Stefan; Lobanova, Anastasia; Strauch, Michael; Ogtrop, Floris van; Reinhardt, Julia; Haberlandt, Uwe; Krysanova, Valentina

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1841-8

Cited by 89 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Furthermore, the model was extensively evaluated in terms of low and high flow simulations Piniewski, Szcześniak, Kundzewicz et al., ), which are quite important for the IHA indicators, many of which correspond to extreme flows. The analysis showed that the model performance for high flows was noticeably higher than for low flows (as illustrated by R 2 equal to 0.9 vs 0.61 for the calibration period), which is consistent with the recent assessment of nine hydrological models’ performance in 12 large river basins (Huang et al., ). Huang et al reported that the bias of models in the low segment of the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) was significantly higher than the bias in the high segment of the FDC.…”

Section: Study Area and Datasupporting

confidence: 86%

Index‐based analysis of climate change impact on streamflow conditions important for Northern Pike, Chub and Atlantic salmon

O’Keeffe

Piniewski

Szcześniak

et al. 2018

Fisheries Management Eco

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Climate change is expected to affect the flow regime, cause loss of habitat, change community composition and behavioural habits of fish. This study assessed the impact of climate change on ecologically relevant streamflow conditions for fish migration and spawning in the Vistula and the Odra river basins. Streamflow simulations obtained with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the historical period and two future horizons were driven by nine bias‐corrected EURO‐CORDEX Regional Climate Models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This study identified a subset of Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) that are relevant for pike, Esox lucius L., chub, Squalius cephalus (L.), and Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L. IHA indicators were calculated and compared for different scenarios. An index‐based framework identified that all considered species will be impacted by climate change, with Atlantic salmon facing the largest impact. The model's uncertainty was addressed through an aggregation method that assessed inconsistencies in the model's response.

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Section: Study Area and Datasupporting

confidence: 86%

Index‐based analysis of climate change impact on streamflow conditions important for Northern Pike, Chub and Atlantic salmon

O’Keeffe

Piniewski

Szcześniak

et al. 2018

Fisheries Management Eco

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“…Although the uncertainty attributable to the hydrological model structure was considered here, the projections based on the HBV-D hydrological model can provide water resources managers and policy makers with important information regarding the two studied basins. Previous studies have investigated the overall performance of the HBV model and that of another seven regional hydrological models, applying them to 12 large-scale river basins worldwide (including the upper Yellow River Basin), and the results indicated that most regional hydrological models were capable of reproducing monthly discharges and seasonal dynamics successfully in all basins except one [40]. The uncertainty from the hydrological parameters is a complex issue.…”

Section: Discussion About Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, for the calibration and validation periods, Ens was found equal to 0.75 and 0.70, and R 2 was found equal to 0.87 and 0.84, respectively. In addition, it was established that the HBV-D model was capable of reproducing the seasonal dynamics of streamflow reasonably well for the upper reaches of the Yellow River [40].…”

Section: Hydrological Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years

Liu

Jiang

et al. 2018

Water

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An assessment of the impact of climate change on regional hydrological processes is vital for effective water resources management and planning. This study investigated the potential effects of climate change on water availability, seasonal runoff, flooding, and water stress in the Yellow River and Pearl River basins in China over the next 30 years, using a semi-distributed hydrological model based on a combination of five general circulation models with four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The results indicated annual mean temperature could rise higher in the Yellow River Basin than the Xijiang River Basin during 2021-2050. Higher risks of small floods and some big floods, but lower risks of rare big floods are projected for both basins. Water scarcity will continually threaten the Yellow River Basin, especially during the dry season and around 2025. In comparison with the effects of climate change, population variation was expected to have a greater impact on water scarcity. A longer and drier dry season is projected for the Pearl River Basin, which could aggravate water stress and saltwater intrusion into the Pearl River delta. Although the present findings have implications for water resource management planning, caution should be observed because of the neglect of reservoir/dam operations and inherent projection uncertainty.

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“…Most sensitivity studies that have been performed with LSM models with respect to infiltration–runoff processes have focused more on the analysis of runoff and river discharge (e.g., Huang et al, 2017; Materia et al, 2010; Zhang et al, 2016) and less on the sensitivity of the infiltration process to model parameters. Here we review the results from sensitivity studies on LSMs that provide information on key parameters controlling infiltration processes and thus ultimately the whole water and energy balance.…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Infiltration–runoff Process To Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Infiltration from the Pedon to Global Grid Scales: An Overview and Outlook for Land Surface Modeling

Vereecken

Weihermüller

Assouline

et al. 2019

Vadose Zone Journal

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Core Ideas Land surface models (LSMs) show a large variety in describing and upscaling infiltration. Soil structural effects on infiltration in LSMs are mostly neglected. New soil databases may help to parameterize infiltration processes in LSMs. Infiltration in soils is a key process that partitions precipitation at the land surface into surface runoff and water that enters the soil profile. We reviewed the basic principles of water infiltration in soils and we analyzed approaches commonly used in land surface models (LSMs) to quantify infiltration as well as its numerical implementation and sensitivity to model parameters. We reviewed methods to upscale infiltration from the point to the field, hillslope, and grid cell scales of LSMs. Despite the progress that has been made, upscaling of local‐scale infiltration processes to the grid scale used in LSMs is still far from being treated rigorously. We still lack a consistent theoretical framework to predict effective fluxes and parameters that control infiltration in LSMs. Our analysis shows that there is a large variety of approaches used to estimate soil hydraulic properties. Novel, highly resolved soil information at higher resolutions than the grid scale of LSMs may help in better quantifying subgrid variability of key infiltration parameters. Currently, only a few LSMs consider the impact of soil structure on soil hydraulic properties. Finally, we identified several processes not yet considered in LSMs that are known to strongly influence infiltration. Especially, the impact of soil structure on infiltration requires further research. To tackle these challenges and integrate current knowledge on soil processes affecting infiltration processes into LSMs, we advocate a stronger exchange and scientific interaction between the soil and the land surface modeling communities.

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Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide

Cited by 89 publications

References 35 publications

Index‐based analysis of climate change impact on streamflow conditions important for Northern Pike, Chub and Atlantic salmon

Index‐based analysis of climate change impact on streamflow conditions important for Northern Pike, Chub and Atlantic salmon

Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years

Infiltration from the Pedon to Global Grid Scales: An Overview and Outlook for Land Surface Modeling

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