No abstract

Evidence shows that soil moisture (SM) anomalies (deficits or excesses) are the key factor affecting crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. Over last decades, Poland has faced several major droughts and at least one major soil moisture excess event leading to severe crop losses. This study aims to simulate the multi-annual variability of SM anomalies in Poland, using a process-based SWAT model and to assess the effect of climate change on future extreme SM conditions, potentially affecting crop yields in Poland. A crop-specific indicator based on simulated daily soil moisture content for the critical development stages of investigated crops (winter cereals, spring cereals, potato and maize) was designed, evaluated for past conditions against empirical cropweather indices (CWIs), and applied for studying future climate conditions. The study used an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for two future horizons: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5. Historical simulation results showed that SWAT was capable of capturing major SM deficit and excess episodes for different crops in Poland. For spring cereals, potato and maize, despite a large model spread, projections generally showed increase of severity of soil moisture deficits, as well as of total area affected by them. Ensemble median fraction of land with extreme soil moisture deficits, occupied by each of these crops, is projected to at least double in size. The signals of change in soil moisture excesses for potato and maize were more dependent on selection of RCP and future horizon.

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Climate change is expected to affect the flow regime, cause loss of habitat, change community composition and behavioural habits of fish. This study assessed the impact of climate change on ecologically relevant streamflow conditions for fish migration and spawning in the Vistula and the Odra river basins. Streamflow simulations obtained with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the historical period and two future horizons were driven by nine bias‐corrected EURO‐CORDEX Regional Climate Models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This study identified a subset of Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) that are relevant for pike, Esox lucius L., chub, Squalius cephalus (L.), and Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L. IHA indicators were calculated and compared for different scenarios. An index‐based framework identified that all considered species will be impacted by climate change, with Atlantic salmon facing the largest impact. The model's uncertainty was addressed through an aggregation method that assessed inconsistencies in the model's response.