Evaluation and future projections of wind energy resources over the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Miao, Haozeyu; Xu, Haiming; Huang, Gang; Yang, Kui

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2023.05.007

Cited by 19 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…While the specific value of α can vary for different locations and conditions, it is common to use a standard value of α = 1 7 in wind energy studies [48][49][50], including those related to both offshore and onshore wind potential, although it is important to note that it may not be universally applicable to all situations. A particular study would be required to discuss in detail the implications of using the power law method and the selection of α, which is beyond the scope of this work.…”

Section: Application Of the Power Law Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Outlook for Offshore Wind Energy Development in Mexico from WRF Simulations and CMIP6 Projections

Meza-Carreto,

Romero-Centeno,

Figueroa-Espinoza

et al. 2024

Energies

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This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the offshore wind energy potential in Mexico across 40 years (1979–2018) of numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The WRF identifies three regions with moderate to good wind potential: off the north coast of Tamaulipas (Zone I), the northwest coast of Yucatan (Zone II), and the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Zone III). The analysis involves comparing 47 CMIP6 climate models with the WRF results and selecting the best performing models to obtain future projections for the short term (2040–2069) and the long term (2070–2099). Two ensemble-based strategies were implemented. The first one, which uses an intersection approach from which four CMIP6 models were considered, reveals positive percentage differences in Zone II for both future projections, especially for the long-term one. In Zones I and III, positive values are also observed near the coast, mainly for the long-term projection, but they are considerably lower compared to those in Zone II. The second ensemble strategy uses weight assignment through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, so that a greater weight is given to the model that performed better in each particular zone, potentially providing more accurate results. The findings suggest the likelihood of increased offshore wind energy in these three zones of Mexico, for both short- and long-term future projections, with positive percentage differences of up to 10% in certain areas.

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Section: Application Of the Power Law Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Outlook for Offshore Wind Energy Development in Mexico from WRF Simulations and CMIP6 Projections

Meza-Carreto,

Romero-Centeno,

Figueroa-Espinoza

et al. 2024

Energies

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“…Remarkable deficiency in simulating the annual cycle of SFCWIND is found (Figure S3 in Supporting Information S1), especially in RegCM4 models, which is twice as large as the observed value and advance the peak by 1 month. Moreover, those biases in the downscaling simulations may be inherited from their driving GCMs, since the CMIP5 GCMs show substantial positive bias in wind speed over China (Miao et al, 2023) and fail to reproduce the spatial distribution of the wind speed over the NWC (Long et al, 2021). Considering that wind speed is a crucial variable for the wind energy production, the quantile delta mapping (QDM) method was applied to the SFCWIND for both the historical and the scenario runs to obtain more reliable downscaling simulations and projections.…”

Section: Validation Of Rcms and Added Value Of The Bias Correctionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Projection and Uncertainty Analysis of Wind and Solar Energy in China Based on an Ensemble of CORDEX‐EA‐II Regional Climate Simulations

Wu,

Niu,

Jing

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Wind and solar energy are crucial for meeting the growing energy demand and mitigating the impact of climate change, and their sources show a climate‐dependence. Here, based on the outputs from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by three global climate models within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments‐East Asia (CORDEX‐EA‐II), the effects of future climate change on wind power density (WPD) and photovoltaic power potential (PVP) in China under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario are comprehensively investigated, and the sources of uncertainty are also quantified. Results show that all RCMs can reproduce the observed WPD and PVP in China by employing the Quantile Delta Mapping method for wind speed simulations. For the future projections, the annual averages of WPD and PVP in China tend to decrease by −11.67% to −1.7% and −4.6% to −1.12%, respectively, with more significant reduction under the RCP8.5 than under the RCP2.6. Note that uncertainties exist among the RCMs' simulations in terms of future projections and long‐term trends. Further analysis reveals that the uncertainty in both WPD and PVP projections are primarily driven by the internal variability in most sub‐regions except the Tibetan Plateau, where GCM uncertainty and emission scenarios play the dominant role in the uncertainty of WPD and PVP projection, respectively. This study highlights the potential benefits of controlling greenhouse gas emissions in enhancing and stabilizing renewable energy in China.

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“…World [70] world Community Earth System Model (CESM) [71] Northern Hemisphere CMIP5 and CMIP6 Asia [72] East Asia CORDEX [73] South Asia CORDEX [74] India CORDEX [75] China CORDEX [76] China CORDEX [77] China MPI-ESM-LR, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk-3.6.0…”

Section: Wind Resourcementioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Solar and Wind Energy Resource Projection Based on the Earth System Model

Chen,

2024

Sustainability

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Many countries around the world are rapidly advancing sustainable development (SD) through the exploitation of clean energy sources such as solar and wind energy, which are becoming the core of the sustainable energy transition. In recent years, the continuous advancement of Earth system models (ESMs) has facilitated numerous studies utilizing them to predict long-term and large-scale meteorological elements, consequently enabling forecasts of wind and solar energy. These forecasts provide critical guidance for formulating national renewable energy policies. Nevertheless, the current literature on ESMs predicting wind and solar energy lacks sufficient integration. Hence, to comprehend the focal points and future research prospects, we conducted this systematic review, employing four academic search tools to comprehensively analyze the relevant literature from the past five years. We summarized the general analytical process and compared the content and conclusions of the literature. The study reveals that future photovoltaic (PV) potential for electricity generation may increase in certain regions but decrease in others, while the global potential for concentrated solar power (CSP) may diminish, influenced by diverse factors and displaying significant regional disparities. In addition, wind resource trends vary in different regions, and forecasts exhibit considerable uncertainty. Therefore, many studies have corrected wind speeds prior to predicting wind energy. Subsequent research endeavors should concentrate on optimizing ESMs, investigating the impacts of technological innovation, and enhancing the prediction and analysis of extreme weather events.

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Evaluation and future projections of wind energy resources over the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Cited by 19 publications

References 51 publications

Outlook for Offshore Wind Energy Development in Mexico from WRF Simulations and CMIP6 Projections

Outlook for Offshore Wind Energy Development in Mexico from WRF Simulations and CMIP6 Projections

Future Projection and Uncertainty Analysis of Wind and Solar Energy in China Based on an Ensemble of CORDEX‐EA‐II Regional Climate Simulations

A Review of Solar and Wind Energy Resource Projection Based on the Earth System Model

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