Future Projection and Uncertainty Analysis of Wind and Solar Energy in China Based on an Ensemble of CORDEX‐EA‐II Regional Climate Simulations

Abstract

Wind and solar energy are crucial for meeting the growing energy demand and mitigating the impact of climate change, and their sources show a climate‐dependence. Here, based on the outputs from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by three global climate models within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments‐East Asia (CORDEX‐EA‐II), the effects of future climate change on wind power density (WPD) and photovoltaic power potential (PVP) in China under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario are comprehensively investigated, and the sources of uncertainty are also quantified. Results show that all RCMs can reproduce the observed WPD and PVP in China by employing the Quantile Delta Mapping method for wind speed simulations. For the future projections, the annual averages of WPD and PVP in China tend to decrease by −11.67% to −1.7% and −4.6% to −1.12%, respectively, with more significant reduction under the RCP8.5 than under the RCP2.6. Note that uncertainties exist among the RCMs' simulations in terms of future projections and long‐term trends. Further analysis reveals that the uncertainty in both WPD and PVP projections are primarily driven by the internal variability in most sub‐regions except the Tibetan Plateau, where GCM uncertainty and emission scenarios play the dominant role in the uncertainty of WPD and PVP projection, respectively. This study highlights the potential benefits of controlling greenhouse gas emissions in enhancing and stabilizing renewable energy in China.