Evaluating the variability and trends in extreme climate events in the Kashmir Valley using PRECIS RCM simulations

Gujree, Ishfaq; Wani, Idrees Ahmed; Muslim, Muhammad Aziz; Farooq, Majid; Meraj, Gowhar

doi:10.1007/s40808-017-0370-4

Cited by 52 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Having an average altitude of 1545 m, the temperature of the valley varies from -9 °C in winter months to 38 °C in summer months. The mean maximum and minimum temperatures of the Kashmir valley are 19.27 and 7.29 °C, respectively (Meraj et al 2015;Gujree et al 2017). Mumbai has a wet and dry, tropical climate which is moderately hot and significantly humid.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coronavirus pandemic versus temperature in the context of Indian subcontinent: a preliminary statistical analysis

Meraj

Farooq

Singh

et al. 2020

Environ Dev Sustain

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The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has unleashed havoc across different countries and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Since certain evidences indicate a direct relationship of various viruses with the weather (temperature in particular), the same is being speculated about COVID-19; however, it is still under investigation as the pandemic is advancing the world over. In this study, we tried to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in the Indian subcontinent with respect to the local temperature regimes from March 9, 2020, to May 27, 2020. To establish the relation between COVID-19 and temperature in India, three different ecogeographical regions having significant temperature differences were taken into consideration for the analysis. We observed that except Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Kashmir showed a significantly positive correlation between the number of COVID-19 cases and the temperature during the period of study. The evidences based on the results presented in this research lead us to believe that the increasing temperature is beneficial to the COVID-19 spread, and the cases are going to rise further with the increasing temperature over India. We, therefore, conclude that the existing data, though limited, suggest that the spread of COVID-19 in India is not explained by the variation of temperature alone and is most likely driven by a host of other factors related to epidemiology, socioeconomics and other climatic factors. Based on the results, it is suggested that temperature should not be considered as a yardstick for planning intervention strategies for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coronavirus pandemic versus temperature in the context of Indian subcontinent: a preliminary statistical analysis

Meraj

Farooq

Singh

et al. 2020

Environ Dev Sustain

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coronavirus Pandemic vs. Temperature in the context of Indian Subcontinent – A preliminary statistical analysis

Meraj¹,

Farooq²,

Singh

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has unleashed havoc across different countries and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Since certain evidences indicate a direct relationship of various viruses with the weather (temperature in particular), the same is being speculated about COVID-19; however, it is still under investigation as the pandemic is advancing the world over. In this study, we tried to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in the Indian sub-continent with respect to the local temperature regimes from 9 March, 2020, to 27 May, 2020. To establish the relation between COVID-19 and temperature in India, three different eco-geographical regions having significant temperature differences were taken into consideration for the analysis. We observed that except Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Kashmir showed a significantly positive correlation between the number of COVID-19 cases and the temperature during the period of study. The evidences based on the results presented in this research lead us to believe that the increasing temperature is beneficial to the COVID-19 spread, and the cases are going to rise further with the increasing temperature over India. We, therefore, conclude that the existing data, though limited, suggests that the spread of COVID-19 in India is not explained by the variation of temperature alone and is most likely driven by a host of other factors related to epidemiology, socio-economics and other climatic factors. Based on the results, it is suggested that temperature should not be considered as a yardstick for planning intervention strategies for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

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“…Kashmir Valley, with an area of ~15,000 km 2 , is a nappe zone interlaced between the Greater Himalayas and the Pir Panjal Range (Lat: 33°22′-34°42′ N; Lon: 73°54′-75°35′ E) in northern India (Figure 1). The Kashmir region, located toward the western part of the Himalayan arc, has experienced erratic weather patterns frequently in the past [20][21][22]; with further warming, erratic weather events are projected to become much more frequent by the end of this century [23]. Erratic weather regimes have-among others-caused the megaflood of 2014 during which the Kashmir Region suffered massive economic losses totaling 1 trillion INR (corresponding to roughly US$13.7 billion) [24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Erratic Snowfall on Apple Orchards in Kashmir Valley, India

et al. 2020

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Kashmir Valley has been witnessing erratic snowfall events in recent autumns which severely impacted apple orchards and harvests. Here, we combine remotely sensed data and field observations to map snowfall distribution and snow depths during the recent snowfall events in November 2018 and November 2019. Besides, we used ERA-5 reanalysis climate datasets to investigate the causes of these erratic snowfall events, pointing to an early arrival of Western Disturbances (WD) to the area. Analysis of these untimely snowfall episodes indicates that snow depths varied from 5-122 cm and 31–152 cm during the 2018 and 2019 snowfall events, respectively. In turn, satellite data analysis reveals that the apple orchards cover roughly 9.8% (1329 km2) of the entire surface of Kashmir Valley, out of which 32.6% were mildly to severely damaged by snow. The areas in South Kashmir suffered the most from the untimely snowfall with an area affected estimated to ~264 km2, followed by North Kashmir (~151 km2) and Central Kashmir (18 km2). The snowfall caused substantial harvest losses in orchards ranging from 4-50% with an average of ~35%. The geopotential analysis from the ERA-5 dataset provides insights into the synoptic weather patterns leading to the snowfall events and point to a trough in the high-troposphere (200 mb), along with a col at lower levels (850 mb) over the Kashmir Valley from November 2–5, 2018. The lower levels (850 mb) experienced intense cyclonic circulation which favored advection of moisture from the Arabian Sea during the November 6–7, 2019, snowfall event. The large economic losses related to early arrival of WD led to a virtual grounding of the horticultural sector in 2018 and 2019. Therefore, more baseline research is critically needed along with a comprehensive evaluation of the suitability of horticulture as an economically viable sector that is being promoted over the Kashmir region, also under climate change.

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Evaluating the variability and trends in extreme climate events in the Kashmir Valley using PRECIS RCM simulations

Cited by 52 publications

References 61 publications

Coronavirus pandemic versus temperature in the context of Indian subcontinent: a preliminary statistical analysis

Coronavirus pandemic versus temperature in the context of Indian subcontinent: a preliminary statistical analysis

Coronavirus Pandemic vs. Temperature in the context of Indian Subcontinent – A preliminary statistical analysis

Impacts of Erratic Snowfall on Apple Orchards in Kashmir Valley, India

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