Evaluating the joint effects of climate and land use change on runoff and pollutant loading in a rapidly developing watershed

Alamdari, Nasrin; Claggett, Peter R.; Sample, David J.; Easton, Zachary M.; Yazdi, Mohammad Nayeb

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129953

Cited by 47 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 64 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The results show that all selected indicators passed the 5% significance test ( p < 0.05) and we found that land use and composition were the primary drivers of the Nr losses in the TLB (Fig. S6 , Table 5 ), which was consistent with previous research work 20 , 58 – 60 . The LUCC had the most substantial explanatory power for Nr loss, with q -values above 0.8 and a mean value of 0.82 over the study period (Table 5 ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Urban development and intensive agricultural activities elevate nutrient outflow, rendering croplands and urban areas essential contributors to Nr losses 27 . Expanding building areas will generate more impervious surfaces, increasing urban runoff and heightening the risk of Nr loss 60 – 62 . Our simulation of land use scenarios in BUA and ED also reveals that urban development leads to deforestation and increased Nr loss.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Attribution and driving force of nitrogen losses from the Taihu Lake Basin by the InVEST and GeoDetector models

Tian

Zhang

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Quantifying temporal and spatial changes in reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses from a watershed and exploring its main drivers are the key to watershed water quality improvements. Huge Nr losses continue to threaten the safety of the water environment in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB). Here, the InVEST and GeoDetector models were combined to estimate Nr losses in the TLB from 1990 to 2020 and explore driving forces. Different scenarios for Nr losses were compared, showing that Nr loss peaked at 181.66 × 103 t in 2000. The key factors affecting Nr loss are land use, followed by elevation, soil, and slope factors, and their mean q-values were 0.82, 0.52, 0.51, and 0.48, respectively. The scenario analysis revealed that Nr losses increased under the business-as-usual and economic development scenarios, while ecological conservation, increased nutrient use efficiency, and reduced nutrient application all contribute to a reduction in Nr losses. The findings provide a scientific reference for Nr loss control and future planning in the TLB.

show abstract

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution and driving force of nitrogen losses from the Taihu Lake Basin by the InVEST and GeoDetector models

Tian

Zhang

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Previous watershed modeling studies conducted in the Chesapeake Bay region generally tend to agree in predicting increases in winter and spring streamflow coupled with decreases in summer streamflow as a result of climate change (Alamdari et al, 2017, 2022; Hawkins, 2015; Neff et al, 2000; Wagena et al, 2018). However, the relative magnitude of the predicted changes varies greatly both among studies and across different climate simulations within the same study, resulting in both negative and positive projected changes in streamflow at the annual scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Bhatt

Linker

Shenk

et al. 2023

J American Water Resour Assoc

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The 2010 Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load was established for the water quality and ecological restoration of the Chesapeake Bay. In 2017, the latest science, data, and modeling tools were used to develop revised Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs). In this article, we examine the vulnerability of the Chesapeake Bay watershed to the combined pressures of climate change and growth in population, agricultural intensity, and economic activity for the 60‐year period 1995–2055. The results will be used to revise WIPs, as needed, to account for expected increases in loads. Assessing changes relative to 1995 for the years 2025, 2035, 2045, and 2055, mean annual precipitation increases of 3.11%, 4.21%, 5.34%, and 6.91%, respectively, air temperature increases of 1.12, 1.45, 1.84, and 2.12°C, respectively, and potential evapotranspiration increases of 3.36%, 4.43%, 5.54%, and 6.35%, respectively, are projected. Population in the watershed is expected to grow by 3.5 million between 2025 and 2055. Watershed model results show incremental increases in streamflow (2.3%–6.2%), nitrogen (2.6%–10.8%), phosphorus (4.5%–26.7%), and sediment (3.8%–18.8%) loads to the tidal Bay due to climate change. Growth in population, agricultural intensity, development, and economic activity resulted in relatively smaller increases in loads compared to climate change.

show abstract

“…In some other research, concerns have been raised about the validity of using the difference in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observed surface temperature as a measure of the impact of urbanization and land use changes on climate in parts of the united states (Kalnay et al, 2003). From the foregoing, the climate-land use related research may be grouped into three categories which include (i) investigating the impact of climate change on land use change (Gao and Liu, 2011;Pipitpukdee et al, 2020;Pramudya et al, 2016;Wajid et al, 2020); (ii) investigating the land use impact on climate change (Findell et al, 2017;Hou et al, 2021;Sylla et al, 2016), and (iii) investigating the impact of the combined effects climate change and land use change on other environmental variables using modeling tools (Alamdari et al, 2022;Amir et al, 2021;Gabiri et al, 2019;Hung et al, 2020;Selwood et al, 2014;Tirupathi and Shashidhar, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Modeling tools have become useful to simulate the combined effects of climate-land interactions but also help to establish mechanisms leading to various environmental outcomes including biodiversity (Schulte to Bühne et al, 2021;Srinivasan and Wilcove, 2021), population (Molotoks et al, 2021), pathogens (Casazza et al, 2020), and food security impact of elevated CO 2 (J. , just to mention a few. Modeling tools have dominated climate-land related research due to their ability to model complex interactions and better represent environmental concerns such as stream ow and hydrological predictions, pollutant loading, water balance, and water quality (Achugbu et al, 2021;Alamdari et al, 2022;Boone et al, 2016;Cao and Dan, 2021;Chilukoti & Xue, 2021;Gabiri et al, 2020;Hung et al, 2020;Idrissou et al, 2022;Jain et al, 2021;Nyatuame et al, 2020;Ross and Randhir, 2022;Selwood et al, 2014;Srinivasan and Wilcove, 2021;Sylla et al, 2016;Tirupathi and Shashidhar, 2020;Tu, 2009), amongst others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between climate and land use land cover change over West Africa

Mortey

Annor

Arnault

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The relationship between climate and land use land cover change over West Africa has often been assessed with climate simulations, although the model-based approach suffers from the limitations of climate models specifically for West Africa. In this paper, an alternative approach based on physical analysis of historical land cover data and standardized climatic indices is used to investigate climate-land interactions to establish the climatic thresholds and their corresponding land use impacts. Annualized land change intensities and the climatic indices are first estimated separately and then linked at various spatiotemporal scales. The result shows that climate-induced land cover change results from abrupt changes in climatic conditions. A regional change of (-1.0–1.0)\(℃\), (0–1.5)\(℃\),(-0.5–0.5)\(℃\), and up to \(\pm\)50 mm changes in precipitation and climatic water balance leads to (45039–52133) km2, (20935–22127) km2 and approximately 32000 km2 changes respectively, while a \(\pm\)0.5\(℃\) and \(\pm\)20 mm change represents normal climate conditions with changes below 20000 km2. Conversely, the plausible pathways through which West African land surface impacts the climate is the conversion of cropland, forest, grassland, and shrubland. The average climatic risk ranges from − 0.025 to 0.025 yr−1 while the probability of occurrence ranged variably from 0 to 0.833. The results offer the basis to re-evaluate land and climatic information necessary for improving the reliability of climate models over West Africa. For sustainable development, this work reveals the need for policy-driven interventions for efficient resource management and the prevention of degradation and deforestation in the region.

show abstract

Evaluating the joint effects of climate and land use change on runoff and pollutant loading in a rapidly developing watershed

Cited by 47 publications

References 64 publications

Attribution and driving force of nitrogen losses from the Taihu Lake Basin by the InVEST and GeoDetector models

Attribution and driving force of nitrogen losses from the Taihu Lake Basin by the InVEST and GeoDetector models

Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Relationship between climate and land use land cover change over West Africa

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About