Evaluating the impact of future climate change on irrigated maize production in Kansas

Araya, A.; Kisekka, Isaya; Lin, Xiaomao; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Rice, Charles W.; Andales, Allan A.

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2017.08.001

Cited by 50 publications

(35 citation statements)

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“…Rahimi-Moghaddam, Kambouzia, and Deihimfard (2018) found that, by combining early sowing and using cultivars which have high thermal time requirements in North Eastern, there is high likelihood of reducing the impact of climate change on maize productivity. Lashkari, Alizadeh, Rezaei, and Bannayan (2012), Bannayan et al (2016) and (Araya et al, 2015;Araya et al, 2017;Reddy et al, 2016) in their studies also reported positive effects of early sowing dates as an adaptive strategy towards impact of climate change. D. P. in their study in North China Plain using APSIM model concluded that cultivation of maize cultivars with longer growing periods and higher thermal requirements could be a potential adaptation measure towards mitigating the impacts of climate change on crop production.…”

Section: Adaptation Strategies and Their Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations

Kogo¹,

Kumar²,

Koech³

et al. 2019

GEP

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The use of crop modelling in various cropping systems and environments to project and upscale agronomic decision-making under the facets of climate change has gained currency in recent years. This paper provides an evaluation of crop models that have been used by researchers to simulate maize growth and productivity. Through a systematic review approach, a comprehensive assessment of 186 published articles was carried out to establish the models and parameterization features, simulated impacts on maize yields and adaptation strategies in the last three decades. Of the 23 models identified, CERES-maize and APSIM models were the most dominant, representing 49.7% of the studies undertaken between 1990 and 2018. Current research shows projected decline in maize yields of between 8%-38% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21 st century, and that adaptation is essential in alleviating the impacts of climate change. Major agro-adaptation options considered in most papers are changes in planting dates, cultivars and crop water management practices. The use of multiple crop models and multi-model ensembles from general circulation models (GCMs) is recommended. As interest in crop modelling grows, future work should focus more on suitability of agricultural lands for maize production under climate scenarios.

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Section: Adaptation Strategies and Their Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations

Kogo¹,

Kumar²,

Koech³

et al. 2019

GEP

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“…Cotton is the major cultivated crop in the TSHP. The cotton harvested area in the TSHP is nearly one-quarter of all U.S. cotton [14]. Currently, grain corn is the major irrigated summer crop in the TNHP, and several counties have reported some of the largest average corn yields in the nation [14].…”

Section: Study Region and Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is one of the most intensive agricultural regions in the world, and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is a major crop grown in the THP region. The cotton planting area is approximately 32% of the U.S. total in 2019 [14]. Corn (Zea mays L.) is the major irrigated crop, and several counties in the THP have reported the largest average corn yields in the nation [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The cotton planting area is approximately 32% of the U.S. total in 2019 [14]. Corn (Zea mays L.) is the major irrigated crop, and several counties in the THP have reported the largest average corn yields in the nation [14]. The potential climate change phenomena of increased temperatures and decreased precipitation can be the most important threat in the agricultural sector affecting the semi-arid THP.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The potential climate change phenomena of increased temperatures and decreased precipitation can be the most important threat in the agricultural sector affecting the semi-arid THP. For instance, the increase of future temperatures can cause a reduced maturity period of corn, which could decrease time duration of corn to use solar radiation and assimilate CO 2 and adversely influence the accumulation of corn biomass and final yield [14][15][16][17]. Climate change adaptation, such as alternative planting dates, land use change, and stress tolerant cultivars, can be time-consuming and costly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Historical and Future Climate Data in the Texas High Plains

Chen

Marek

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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Agricultural production in the Texas High Plains (THP) relies heavily on irrigation and is susceptible to drought due to the declining availability of groundwater and climate change. Therefore, it is meaningful to perform an overview of possible climate change scenarios to provide appropriate strategies for climate change adaptation in the THP. In this study, spatio-temporal variations of climate data were mapped in the THP during 2000–2009, 2050–2059, and 2090–2099 periods using 14 research-grade meteorological stations and 19 bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Results indicated different bias correction methods were needed for different climatic parameters and study purposes. For example, using high-quality data from the meteorological stations, the linear scaling method was selected to alter the projected precipitation while air temperatures were bias corrected using the quantile mapping method. At the end of the 21st century (2090–2099) under the severe CO2 emission scenario (RCP 8.5), the maximum and minimum air temperatures could increase from 3.9 to 10.0 °C and 2.8 to 8.4 °C across the entire THP, respectively, while precipitation could decrease by ~7.5% relative to the historical (2000–2009) observed data. However, large uncertainties were found according to 19 GCM projections.

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Historic corn yield, production, and economic value trends in Kansas

Holman,

Obour,

O'Brien

et al. 2024

Agronomy Journal

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World corn (Zea mays L.) production has tripled since the 1960s. However, without new breakthrough innovations the trend is expected to plateau or decrease in the future. The objective of this study was to quantify Kansas corn production, economic value, productivity, annual production variation, yield gap trends, and in due course, identify future areas for research. Corn variety performance tests and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data were used for this study. Results showed that the area planted to corn in Kansas increased from 0.5 million in 1880s to over 2 million ha by 2022, with an increase of 0.05 million ha year−1 between 1984 and 2022. The value of corn produced in Kansas also increased significantly from below $1 billion annually prior to 1990s to the current value of approximately $3–$4 billion. The average corn yield gain from 1972 to 2000 was 132 kg ha−1 year−1, which declined to 12 kg ha−1 year−1 during 2000 to the early 2020s. Also, a relatively high yield variability occurred from 1970 to the early 2020s compared with earlier years (1866–1970), and a 42%–68% gap between the potential and actual corn yields was identified. We concluded that there is a decrease in the rate of corn yield increase and developing farmer awareness and their adoption of new corn production technology, increasing longevity of the Ogallala Aquifer, and integrated research should be priorities to avert the decreasing trend of corn productivity and further increase corn economic value.

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Evaluating the impact of future climate change on irrigated maize production in Kansas

Cited by 50 publications

References 58 publications

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Historical and Future Climate Data in the Texas High Plains

Historic corn yield, production, and economic value trends in Kansas

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Evaluating the impact of future climate change on irrigated maize production in Kansas

Cited by 50 publications

References 58 publications

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (&lt;i&gt;Zea mays&lt;/i&gt; L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (&lt;i&gt;Zea mays&lt;/i&gt; L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Historical and Future Climate Data in the Texas High Plains

Historic corn yield, production, and economic value trends in Kansas

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations