Evaluating natural capital performance of urban development through system dynamics: A case study from London

O'Keeffe, J.; Pluchinotta, Irene; Stercke, Simon De; Hinson, Caitlin; Puchol-Salort, Pepe; Mijic, Ana; Zimmermann, Nicole; Collins, A. J.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153673

Cited by 11 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Zhao, P. et al [39] developed an integrated two-stage dynamical model of the power system to quantitatively assess the environmental impacts of the integrated development of urban subsurface resources, including the integrated development of subsurface space and subsurface materials. O'Keeffe, J. et al [40] utilized a system-dynamics model to quantify and evaluate the impact of London's urban design on the relationship between the natural and built environments. Relevant researchers have adopted a system-dynamics approach to simulate and compare the evolutionary states of different resilience subsystems within the city, and to explore the resilience mechanisms of the city at different stages of development [41,42].…”

Section: System Dynamics Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Research on Urban Green Development Based on System Dynamics—A Case Study of Hefei in China

Feng,

Liu,

Yan

et al. 2024

Systems

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Urban green development is a way of economic growth and social development aiming at efficiency, harmony and sustainability, and in recent years urban green development has become an important trend for future urban development. In this study, Hefei City is selected as the study area, and a comprehensive green-development model is constructed by applying the system dynamics method, which integrates five important subsystems, namely, economy, environment, people’s livelihood, S and T and resources. Through simulation analysis, this study reveals the dynamic trend of green development in Hefei City. The analysis results show that economic growth provides the foundation for green development, scientific and technological innovation promotes the development of green technology, and that sustained investments in people’s livelihoods and environmental protection improves people’s quality of life and a city’s eco-friendliness. This study aims to promote the coordinated economic, social and environmental development of Hefei to ensure that Hefei is steadily moving towards high-quality and sustainable development goals; it effectively reveals the current situation, forecasts the trend of green development in Hefei, and also provides a reference for the urban green development of other cities.

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Section: System Dynamics Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Research on Urban Green Development Based on System Dynamics—A Case Study of Hefei in China

Feng,

Liu,

Yan

et al. 2024

Systems

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“…3.2 Subsystem analysis and variable selection 3.2.1 Natural subsystem. The natural subsystem contains the basic resources for regional development and plays a central role in maintaining social resilience, enhancing social wellbeing and promoting economic growth and sustainable development (Guerry et al, 2015;Bateman and Mace, 2020;O'Keeffe et al, 2022). The area and yield of crops are the basis for ensuring food security and providing important support for sustainable livelihoods (Leng et al, 2019).…”

Section: System Dynamics Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development paths of people’s sustainable livelihood based on climate change: a case study of Yunnan minority areas

Liu

Yang

2023

IJCCSM

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Purpose This study aims to evaluate the characteristics of climate change in Yunnan minority areas and identify an effective path to promote sustainable livelihoods based on climate change. Design/methodology/approach Taking Yunnan Province as an example, based on the expansion of the traditional sustainable livelihood framework, the authors constructed a system dynamics (SD) model of sustainable livelihood from the six subsystems of natural, physical, financial, social, human and cultural and tested the accuracy and effectiveness of the model with data from Cangyuan County. By adjusting these parameters, five development paths are designed to simulate the future situation of the livelihood system and determine the optimal path. Findings Climate change has exacerbated the vulnerability of people’s livelihoods. In future, each of the five development paths will be advantageous for promoting sustainable livelihoods. However, compared with Path I (maintaining the status quo), Path III (path of giving priority to culture) and Path IV (path of giving priority to economic development) have more obvious advantages. Path II (path of giving priority to people’s lives) gradually increases the development rate by promoting people’s endogenous motivation, and Path V (path of coordinated development) is better than the other paths because of its more balanced consideration. Originality/value The analytical framework of sustainable livelihoods based on the characteristics of minority areas is broadened. By constructing a SD model of the livelihood system, the limitations of traditional static analysis have been overcome and a development path for promoting sustainable livelihoods through simulation is proposed. This study offers a theoretical framework and reference method for livelihood research against the backdrop of climate change and a decision-making basis for enhancing climate adaptability and realizing sustainable livelihoods.

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“…Particularly, a poor understanding of the multiple benefits and impacts that different risk reduction measures might have is ultimately hampering a transition toward Nature Based Solutions (NBS, e.g., wetlands, swales, green roofs, etc.) which is recommended by the European Commission (European Commission, 2016) and supported by recent research (Albert et al, 2019;O'Keeffe et al, 2022;Palmer et al, 2015;Schanze, 2017).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Participatory Causal Loop Diagrams Building for Supporting Decision‐Makers Integrating Flood Risk Management in an Urban Regeneration Process

Coletta,

Pagano,

Pluchinotta

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Several modeling tools commonly used for supporting flood risk assessment and management are highly effective in representing physical phenomena, but provide a rather limited understanding of the multiple implications that flood risk and flood risk reduction measures have on highly complex systems such as urban areas. In fact, most of the available modeling tools do not fully account for this complexity—and related uncertainty—which heavily affects the interconnections between urban systems evolution and flood risk, ultimately resulting in an ineffective flood risk management. The present research proposes an innovative methodological framework to support decision‐makers involved in an urban regeneration process at a planning/strategic level, accounting for the multi‐dimensional implications of flood risk and of different flood risk management strategies. The adopted approach is based on the use of System Thinking principles and participatory System Dynamics modeling techniques, and pursues an integration between scientific and stakeholder knowledge. Reference is made to one of the case studies of the CUSSH and CAMELLIA projects, namely Thamesmead (London), a formerly inhospitable marshland currently undergoing a process of urban regeneration, and perceived as being increasingly vulnerable to flooding. It represents an interesting opportunity for building a replicable modeling approach to integrate urban development dynamics with flood risk, ultimately supporting policy and decision‐makers in identifying mitigation/prevention measures and understanding how they could help achieve multi‐dimensional benefits (e.g., environmental, social and economic).

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Evaluating natural capital performance of urban development through system dynamics: A case study from London

Cited by 11 publications

References 39 publications

Forecasting Research on Urban Green Development Based on System Dynamics—A Case Study of Hefei in China

Forecasting Research on Urban Green Development Based on System Dynamics—A Case Study of Hefei in China

Development paths of people’s sustainable livelihood based on climate change: a case study of Yunnan minority areas

Participatory Causal Loop Diagrams Building for Supporting Decision‐Makers Integrating Flood Risk Management in an Urban Regeneration Process

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