Evaluating NATO enlargement: scholarly debates, policy implications, and roads not taken

Goldgeier, James; Shifrinson, Joshua R. Itzkowitz

doi:10.1057/s41311-020-00243-7

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Drawing on Realist Balance of Power Theory, he argues that the Russian use of force was a logical and predictable reaction to the Western offer of NATO membership to Ukraine in 2008, which threatened to remove Ukraine from the Russian sphere of influence. Others have disputed this view (Goldgeier and Shifrinson, 2020), but Mearsheimer is able to support his argument by presenting a coherent theoretical argument consisting of assumptions, if-then-because hypothesis, and supporting evidence (see Table 3). 2…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In such situations, solutions may involve asking more precise questions and adding more explanatory factors to obtain a more detailed understanding of the issue at hand. 1 The answer as to whether NATO or Russia, or both are to blame for the growing tensions since 2014 depends on the assumptions, if-then-because hypotheses, levels of analysis, and the timeframes adopted (for an overview of the debate see Goldgeier and Shifrinson, 2020). The main positions in the NATO expansion debate can be plotted into a table similar to Table 1 allowing strategists to take the theories producing the different arguments apart and subject their constituent parts to critical scrutiny.…”

Section: How To Use Causal Theory To Validate Military Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, critics of NATO expansion argue that NATO has not created stability in Central and Eastern Europe by preventing a power vacuum from developing between Russia and Western Europe. They contend that the stability created in Central and Eastern Europe was caused by the economic and political reforms set in motion by EU expansion (Goldgeier and Shifrinson, 2020). In view of the critics, the apparent causal relationship between NATO expansion and the increased stability within and among NATO Central and Eastern European member states is caused by the accession of these countries to the EU.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Causal Theories of Threat and Success – Simple Analytical Tools Making it Easier to Assess, Formulate, and Validate Military Strategy

Jakobsen

2022

Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies

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The common assumptions-ends-ways-means-risk (AEWMR) military strategy model instructs its users to make reasonable assumptions, balance ends, ways and means, and control for risks. But it does not offer much practical guidance on how this should be done, or how to choose between relevant balanced strategies. To address this problem, recent scholarship has proposed the concept of theory of success as an analytical tool to enhance the ability of strategists to assess, formulate, and validate military strategies. This article seeks to take this body of scholarship to the next level by operationalizing the theory of success concept into a simple easy-to-use practical guide that helps its users to identify the assumptions and causal hypotheses underpinning any military strategy, and to validate it logically and empirically. The article is based on the assumption that greater analytical clarity and rigour is a prerequisite for better military strategy. It expects conceptually clear, logically consistent and empirically validated military strategies to stand a better chance of success than vague, inconsistent, and poorly validated ones. Use of the analytical tool proposed here will of course not guarantee successful outcomes. Politics, biases and flawed intelligence may still result in the adoption of flawed assumptions and formulation of ill-suited strategies. Military strategy from may also continue to fail in the execution phase as a result of clever enemy responses and unforeseen developments.

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Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: How To Use Causal Theory To Validate Military Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Causal Theories of Threat and Success – Simple Analytical Tools Making it Easier to Assess, Formulate, and Validate Military Strategy

Jakobsen

2022

Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies

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“…또한 서유럽 국가들의 입장도 서로 달랐다. 예를 들면, 프랑스는 나토 확대를 유럽의 독자적인 대외 및 안보정책 수행을 제한하는 요소로 보았지만, 독일은 동독의 국경선이 나토의 동쪽 국경선이 되지 않아, 위협을 해소하는 기회로 생각하였다[14].…”

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An Analysis on the Correlation Among the Actors’ Variables Regarding the NATO Enlargement

Lee¹

2023

APJCRI

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The purpose of this study is to find the correlation among the diverse variables in association with the NATO enlargement. For this, I identify the US policy toward NATO, the NATO policy on Enlargement, the Reactions of new entrants and hoping nations, and the Reactions of Russia as antecedent, independent, intervening, and dependent variables respectively on the basis of precedent researches. The antecedent variable, the US, as a member and the leading state of NATO which has its own value of democracy and free market economic system, policy toward NATO, not only makes NATO to accept the new entrants and hoping nations after they have adopted democracy and free market economic system, but also determines how to react against the Russia's military reaction. So, it influenced very much on the independent variable's policy making. The enlargement of NATO created the strong inverse reaction of Russia, so the independent variable influenced the dependent variables so much. The intervening variables was taken into account, it forms an inverse relation by amplifying of Russia' strong military reaction. As a result, the correlation between the independent and dependent variables was somewhat sometimes seemingly masked. The dependent variable forms the strong inverse relation with the independent variable, though it made positive correlation for a while in the post-cold war era at least until 2004. To conclude, NATO with 30 member countries have developed into one of the largest political and military organizations in the world, thus we need to continue to research this subject not only to configure its future, but also to find the best cooperation model in the matter of military and other subjects with NATO.

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The cascade influence of grain trade shocks on countries in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Liu

Wang

Yan

et al. 2023

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

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The Russia-Ukraine conflict has severely impacted global food security. This may increase the risk of supply chain disruption in low-income countries that rely heavily on grain imports. This study used production and trade data for wheat, barley and maize from 1995 to 2021 to construct longitudinal trade networks. On this basis, a cascading failure network model of shock propagation was used to identify the direct or indirect dependence of other countries on grain exported from Russia and Ukraine and the impact caused by trade shocks. The results revealed that the interruption of grain exports from Russia and Ukraine has resulted in an increasing impact on the global grain trade year by year and that the wheat trade is the most vulnerable to shock propagation, but it is also the most resilient. Russia and Ukraine interrupt exports of grain, causing more than 50% reduction in direct imports to 30 countries, including Eritrea, Seychelles, Kazakhstan and Mongolia. A shock propagation model that considers indirect dependence yields divergent results, with lower middle income (LM) countries in North Africa, Southeast Asia and West Asia facing supply shocks from reduced imports because they are unable to fully exploit the trade channels to balance grain supply and demand. Under the COVID-19 pandemic, this indirect dependence on imports is more prominent. It is worth noting that Eastern and Southern European countries often act as intermediaries to spread shocks during cascading failures. In the process of shock propagation, the main suppliers of grain include the United States, Canada, France, Argentina and Brazil. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the import demand faced by Australia increased significantly. We also examined how nodal characteristics relate to shock propagation dynamics and country vulnerability, finding that high import diversity, low import dependence and regional characteristics are effective in buffering countries from supply shocks. This study contributes to our understanding of the external supply risks for grain arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a pandemic context, highlights the issue of accessibility in food security and provides trade policy recommendations to mitigate national vulnerability to food insecurity, thereby creating a resilient food trade system.

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Evaluating NATO enlargement: scholarly debates, policy implications, and roads not taken

Cited by 7 publications

References 63 publications

Causal Theories of Threat and Success – Simple Analytical Tools Making it Easier to Assess, Formulate, and Validate Military Strategy

Causal Theories of Threat and Success – Simple Analytical Tools Making it Easier to Assess, Formulate, and Validate Military Strategy

An Analysis on the Correlation Among the Actors’ Variables Regarding the NATO Enlargement

The cascade influence of grain trade shocks on countries in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

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