Abstract:Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee-Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-s… Show more
“…Study done by Shamshimah and Noriszura [12] shows that the Malaysian population especially the working men are more likely to become disabled or die than women employees hence reverse mortgages is an alternative for them to prepare for their after retirement in the future. While Syazreen, Purcal and Parr [15] found that based on coherent among Malays, Chinese and Indians in Malaysia, Chinese has lower mortality rates.…”
A reverse mortgages is a type of home loan for homeowners to receive an amount of money against the value of the house in the form of fixed monthly payments or a line of credit. It enables the elderly homeowners to access their home equity and hold up payment into cash of loan until a certain condition apply whereby the loan amount will not exceed the home value over the life of the loan. Thi s study aims to compare reverse mortgages payment between the Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECM) model by United State and Malaysian Proposed Reverse Mortgages (MPRM) loan structure on every type of house in Kuala Lumpur. Both loan structures have slight difference in the loan amount. From gender perspectives, it shows that male received higher amount of payment received compared to female. This situation happens because the difference in the life expectancy where one of the elements of reverse mortgages payment, whereby female are longer live than male due to mortality perils. Thus, between two models, the model that gives more payment towards Malaysia elderly is HECM rather than MPRM.
“…Study done by Shamshimah and Noriszura [12] shows that the Malaysian population especially the working men are more likely to become disabled or die than women employees hence reverse mortgages is an alternative for them to prepare for their after retirement in the future. While Syazreen, Purcal and Parr [15] found that based on coherent among Malays, Chinese and Indians in Malaysia, Chinese has lower mortality rates.…”
A reverse mortgages is a type of home loan for homeowners to receive an amount of money against the value of the house in the form of fixed monthly payments or a line of credit. It enables the elderly homeowners to access their home equity and hold up payment into cash of loan until a certain condition apply whereby the loan amount will not exceed the home value over the life of the loan. Thi s study aims to compare reverse mortgages payment between the Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECM) model by United State and Malaysian Proposed Reverse Mortgages (MPRM) loan structure on every type of house in Kuala Lumpur. Both loan structures have slight difference in the loan amount. From gender perspectives, it shows that male received higher amount of payment received compared to female. This situation happens because the difference in the life expectancy where one of the elements of reverse mortgages payment, whereby female are longer live than male due to mortality perils. Thus, between two models, the model that gives more payment towards Malaysia elderly is HECM rather than MPRM.
“…A number of studies have compared the empirical characteristics and/or accuracy of selected recently developed mortality models (e.g. Booth et al 2006 , Cairns et al 2009 , Scherbov and Ediev 2016 , Shair et al 2017 , Stoeldraijer et al 2013 , and Terblanche 2016 ).…”
BackgroundIn recent decades, considerable research effort has been dedicated to improving mortality forecasting methods. While making valuable contributions to the literature, the bulk of this research has focused on national populations—yet much planning and service delivery occurs at regional and local scales. More attention needs to be paid to subnational mortality forecasting methods.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to evaluate eight fairly simple methods of regional mortality forecasting, focusing specifically on the requirements of practising demographers in government and business.Data and methodsData were sourced primarily from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Retrospective mortality rate forecasts were produced for 88 regions of Australia for 2006–2016. Regional mortality forecast methods were evaluated on the basis of (i) input data requirements, (ii) ease of calculation, (iii) ease of assumption setting and scenario creation, (iv) plausibility of forecast death rates, (v) smoothness of forecast mortality age profiles, and (vi) forecast accuracy.ResultsTwo of the methods produced noticeably higher forecast errors than the others (National Death Rates and SMR Scaling). Five of the methods were judged to be similar in their overall suitability. Two were particularly easy to implement (Broad Age SMR Scaling and Broad Age Rate Ratio Scaling) and provide a good return on the data and effort required. Two others (Brass Relational and Mortality Surface) produced very smooth mortality age profiles and highly plausible death rates, though were relatively more complex to implement.ConclusionThe choice of mortality forecasting method is important for the accuracy of regional population forecasts. But considerations additional to accuracy are important, including those relating to the plausibility of the forecasts and the ease of implementation.
“…At the young adult age (15-25), the male mortality rates show non-linear pattern compared to the female mortality rates. According to Shair et al (2017aShair et al ( , 2017b, this significant difference might be coming from the 73% of road accidents involving male teenagers. In addition, the plot portrays the data suggesting that women tend to live longer than man.…”
Section: Data Descriptionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…A great deal of research has been conducted on the study of multi-population mortality models outside Malaysia, yet only a small number of research has been conducted on the study of coherent mortality model in Malaysia. Shair et al (2017aShair et al ( , 2017b are the only authors that have compared coherent mortality model with its independent model in Malaysia. They found that the multi-population mortality model outperformed the single-population mortality model in terms of overall forecast accuracy.…”
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