European Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy – Transport Sector

Abstract

This chapter presents a technically feasible and economically viable energy pathway for Europe, in which the energy sector (comprised of power, heat, transport, and desalination) reaches 100% renewable energy and zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The research highlights the transition of the transport sector, which is currently dependent on fossil fuels to a great extent, towards being driven by 100% renewables. The transport sector achieves zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, mainly through direct and indirect electrification in the form of synthetic fuels, such as hydrogen and Fischer-Tropsch fuels. The methods are comprised of the derivation of the transportation demand, which is converted into final energy demand for direct electrification along with production of hydrogen, methane and Fischer-Tropsch fuels. The powerto-gas (H2, CH4) and power-to-liquids (Fischer-Tropsch fuels) value chains are applied for the total energy demand, which is fulfilled entirely by renewables in 2050. The primary energy demand for the transport sector decreases from 21,000 TWh in 2015 to around 20,000 TWh by 2050, driven by massive gains in energy efficiency with a high level of direct and indirect electrification of more than 85% in 2050. While, the final energy demand for transport decreases from 7000 TWh/a in 2015 to 5000 TWh/a, despite the assumed growth of passenger and freight transportation, mainly driven by the massive electrification of road transport. Solar PV and wind energy emerge as the most prominent energy supply sources with around 62% and 32%, respectively, of the total electricity supply by 2050. Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with around 83% of total electricity storage output. Fuel conversion technologies such as water electrolysis, methanation, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, and others, supply renewable-based fuels along with sustainably produced biofuels and electrification to ensure a 100% renewable energy-based transport sector across Europe. The levelised cost of energy for a fully sustainable energy system across Europe remains stable in the range of €50-60 /MWh through the transition from 2015 to 2050. The final annualised energy costs for transport remain around 300-450 b€ per year through the transition period, with a massive reduction for road transport, while increases for marine and aviation transport by 2050 are projected. Greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced from about 4,200 mega tonnes CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq) in 2015 in the entire energy system to zero by 2050, with cumulative GHG emissions of around 85 gigatonnes CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq). While GHG emissions in the transport sector can be reduced from about 1900 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, this could be further accelerated with ambitious policies and targets across Europe. Consequently, a 100% renewable energy system across the transport sector in Europe is far more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil fuel-based option, and most importantly compatible with the Paris Agreement.

Assessment of a cost-optimal power system fully based on renewable energy for Iran by 2050 – Achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions and overcoming the water crisis

“…Solar PV in both, the BP and integrated scenarios, covers the majority of electricity demand in all regions due to its high potential all over the county. Many studies indicate that solar PV will dominate an energy system based on 100% RE resources by 2050 all around the world due to its ongoing and rapid cost reduction [6][7][8]57,58,61,62]. Jacobson et al [8] find a 55% share of solar PV in Iran's energy system by 2050.…”

“…The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for the proposed power system in 2050 is 52 €/MWh compared to 70 €/MWh of the existing system in 2015. Detailed results of this energy transition and its socio-economic benefits categorised into 9 major regions of the world are presented by Ram et al [7]. Moreover, several publications have investigated a fully RE-based energy system for several countries and regions around the world and pointed out that a renewable powered system not only is feasible but also is cost comparative with the current system [8][9][10][11][12].…”

Job creation during the global energy transition towards 100% renewable power system by 2050

“…A global energy transition is well underway with nearly 160 GW of renewables (without considering large hydropower) been added in 2017, of which 98 GW was solar and 53 GW wind power (Frankfurt School -UNEP & BNEF, 2018;GWEC, 2018). In addition, tumbling technology costs have propelled investments in renewable energy power generation and from a levelised cost of energy (LCOE) outlook, renewables have become a more attractive investment proposition than fossil fuels in many countries around the world (Ram et al, 2017a;Ram et al, 2018). The effects of the new energy system would not be restricted to energy production only, but would have consequences for the whole society (Breyer, etal., 2017a).…”

Setting Thresholds to Define Indifferences and Preferences in PROMETHEE for Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment of European Hydrogen Production

“…Preceding this, the EU published the Hydrogen Roadmap Europe [3] in 2019. Hydrogen, as a secondary energy carrier, is discussed frequently in energy transformation scenarios, e.g., [4,5]. It is easier to store than electricity, can be directly used as feedstock, or can help to electrify several other sectors besides the energy sector, e.g., mobility or industry.…”