Assessment of a cost-optimal power system fully based on renewable energy for Iran by 2050 – Achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions and overcoming the water crisis

Abstract

Transition of Iran's power system from 2015 to 2050 through three scenarios was modelled. Two scenarios present a transition pathway towards a fully renewable run power system with different involved sectors (power only, power sector coupled with desalination and nonenergetic gas sectors). The third scenario is based on the country's current policies. The energy model performs an hourly resolution to guarantee meeting energy demand for every hour of the whole year. It is found that renewable energy resources in Iran can satisfy 625 TWh of power sector demand in 2050. Further, it is technically and economically feasible that electricity demand for supplying 101 million m 3 desalinated water and 249 TWhLHV synthetic natural gas for non-energetic industrial gas demand can be supplied via renewable resources. A 100% renewable power system with 54 €/MWhel levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is more cost-effective than the current power system in Iran with 88.3 €/MWhel LCOE in 2015. LCOE of the system can decrease further and reach to 41.3 €/MWhel in 2050 via sector coupling. On the other hand, the current policies of the country lead to an inefficient power system with a LCOE of 128 €/MWhel and 188 Mt/a emitted CO2 in 2050.

The Value of Fast Transitioning to a Fully Sustainable Energy System: The Case of Turkmenistan

“…The results of this study are in line with the findings of recent energy transition studies in other countries around the world, specifically the dominance of solar PV in electricity generation [19], [55]- [57] and cost savings related to transitioning to sustainable forms of energy [58]. Breyer et al [55] investigate the role of solar PV in energy transition on a global level, employing high temporal and high spatial modelling and conclude that solar PV technology will emerge to be the "most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply" thanks to ever decreasing costs of PV systems and battery storage technologies.…”

“…Tavana et al [56] similarly present several transition scenarios with different RE integration rates and demonstrate the high potential of solar PV and wind power technologies and that they are technically and economically feasible, albeit with slightly conservative solar PV cost and efficiency assumptions. Ghorbani et al [57] have undertaken a detailed energy transition study for Iran in high geo-spatial resolution to determine cost-optimal pathways towards full sustainability of Iran's energy system; though only power sector and desalination sectors along with nonenergetic gas sector were simulated, the authors similarly conclude that solar PV will dominate the electricity supply in the BPS in 2050.…”

Energy Security Analysis for a 100% Renewable Energy Transition in Jordan by 2050

“…An analysis of three different scenarios was conducted for the region and it was found that a 100% RE system was cheaper than a business-as-usual scenario. Similar analyses for different 100% RE scenarios were conducted for individual countries in the region, in particular for Saudi Arabia [86], Turkey [91], Israel [92] and Iran [87,[93][94][95]; all with a comparable conclusion that a 100% RE system is technically feasible and economically viable. It is not only similar to results from the MENA region, but also similar to research done for comparable sun-rich countries in the world, such as Chile [96].…”

“…The transition towards a fully sustainable energy system for Jordan needs additional studies, which subdivides the country into several nodes based on population distribution and determines the local energy demands, the ability to meet these demands, while minimising the need for transmission lines. Such a valuable improvement in the insights on a national energy transition has been shown for the case of Iran with a first analysis for the country in one node [94] and a second in-depth research in a multi-node resolution [93]. It is also suggested to carry out a comparison of different scenarios to see their relative impact on energy security.…”

The comparison of tidal power plants with solar and combined cycle power plants in the southern coast of Iran

“…The mean LCOE in this study for the Tidal plant is 7 cents, while in, 32 it is 17 USA cents on average for all regions of the world. In, 33 the mean LCOE for the production of Iran's electricity basket is about 2.6 USA cents.…”