Europe, the End of the West and Global Power Shifts

Abstract

Relative economic, political, and military power is undoubtedly shifting away from the West, most notably to Asia, but also to other world regions. Moreover, non‐state actors and cross‐border flows increasingly pose challenges to Western states’ capacity for crisis management. Consequently, the liberal world order and its governance structures have come under pressure. Even more fundamental is the emerging challenge to the notion of the ‘West’ as a group of countries led by the United States and unified around core values and principles. The 2016 US election results raise serious doubts about the future US administration's resolve to abide by liberal democratic norms both internally and in their international relations. Whether deliberately or indirectly in the pursuit of other goals, the US may undermine the already weakened rules‐based international system and thereby accelerate the decline of the West's material and ideological hegemony. In light of these potential conflicts, European governments must take immediate action to prepare for a new global order. They must first strengthen their own countries and enhance the internal coherence of the Union. Second, they must improve the crisis management facilities and strategic capacities within their borders as well as within the euro area and the EU.

European Integration and the New Global Disorder*

“…This was coupled, under Trump, with an aversion to multilateral cooperation, leading to the collapse of negotiations over TTIP as well as serious rifts with the EU over the Paris climate agreement and the Iran nuclear deal (Aggestam and Hyde‐Price, 2019, p. 119). US disengagement from Europe was also manifested in tensions over the future of NATO, with recurring disputes over burden‐sharing as well as doubts over Washington's continued commitment to collective defence (Schwarzer, 2017). The gulf between the USA and the EU on trade, foreign policy and international cooperation fuelled the recognition amongst EU policy‐makers that a greater emphasis on self‐reliance and strategic autonomy is necessary (Aggestam and Hyde‐Price, 2019; European Commission, 2016).…”

“…Domestic factors, such as widespread opposition to interventionist foreign policies and significant support for protectionist economic measures, have been critical in this process and manifested most clearly in the Trump administration's abdication of the USA's traditional global leadership role (Ikenberry, 2018). The growing multi-polarization of world politics has generated a series of novel geo-economic tensions between the USA, China and Russia (Schwarzer, 2017). These are driven by the growing embrace of neo-mercantilist logic and attempts to weaponize economic interdependencies to gain national political advantages (Farrell and Newman, 2019).…”

“…Europe confronts a world that is undergoing a series of far‐reaching changes (Schwarzer, 2017; Laffan, 2018). China continues its rise as a key centre of economic and geopolitical power and the global leadership role of the USA has come under question, while the global economy is experiencing a protracted phase of economic volatility and low growth (Kirshner, 2014; Streeck, 2016).…”

Gold at the end of the Rainbow? TheBRIand the Middle East

“…On the other side of the spectrum, South and East Asia are the economic powerhouses which have been keeping the fuel in the tanks of globalization (Chu, ). With historically unprecedented economic growth rates, China in particular has continued to drive the expansion of the global economy (Schwarzer, ). China's global position has in turn facilitated the extension of pan‐Asian links.…”

“…The BRI's horizontal regionalization (spatial extent), therefore, can develop a vertical dimension (regional supply chains) to it in which BRI regionalization itself can further Asianize Asia‐led globalization. Taken to its limits, as the transatlantic alliance frays and the West arguably fractures (Schwarzer, ), so the BRI can sculpt an ultimate ‘Eurasian region’ led by ‘the East’ and impose China's authority on the regionalized world order.…”