Ethnic political exclusion and terrorism: Analyzing the local conditions for violence

Abstract

Previous work finds that countries that contain an excluded group are at higher risk of terrorism. However, there are good reasons to think that the impact of exclusion may be more likely to motivate ethnic violence when this exclusion is paired with local conditions that increase awareness of intergroup competition. In this study, we examine sub-national terrorist violence and find that areas that contain an excluded ethnic group are at higher risk of violence. Moreover, this risk is heightened by local population density, wealth, and country regime type.

Sociopsychological correlates of militant extremist beliefs in a postconflict society: The importance of ethnocentrism and quality of interethnic contacts

“…Importantly, these data are in line with previous findings regarding observed terrorist actions: ethnic polarization increases the probability of terrorism (Danzell, Yeh, & Pfannenstiel, 2019); this is highly relevant in the Serbian context because Serbs and Albanians in Preševo Valley live in spatially distinct communities. Psychological underpinnings of this connection are the political grievances experienced by the members of an ethnic minority group toward the majority group (Boylan, 2016); these grievances are often accompanied by feelings of political exclusion and discrimination (Hansen, Nemeth, & Mauslein, 2018). Both of these processes are congruent with the characteristics of Serbian–Albanian relations in the previous decades.…”

Class Warfare: Political Exclusion of the Poor and the Roots of Social-Revolutionary Terrorism, 1860-1950

“…6 Indeed, the prediction that exclusion can result in terrorism is in line with a number of empirical contributions that find that economic inequality and exclusionary policies may have contributed to the emergence of terrorist activity after 1970 (e.g. Piazza 2011;Choi and Piazza 2016;Gleditsch and Polo 2016;Krieger and Meierrieks 2019;Hansen, Nemeth, and Mauslein 2020).…”

“…Second, by focusing on the roles of political exclusion on grounds of socio-economic class and other class cleavages, we add to the existing literature that empirically investigates the relationship between terrorism, exclusion, discrimination and inequality for the post-1970 period (e.g. Piazza 2011;Choi and Piazza 2016;Gleditsch and Polo 2016;Krieger and Meierrieks 2019;Hansen, Nemeth, and Mauslein 2020). By providing evidence that exclusion also mattered to early modern terrorism, we can show that there is some degree of continuity in the causes of terrorism over time.…”

Political Competition and Right-Wing Terrorism: A County-Level Analysis of the United States

“…If right-wing violence is about establishing power, more affluent targets could hold greater symbolic power for these groups. Alternatively, Hansen, Nemeth, and Mauslein (2020, 12) point out that relative deprivation logic depends on individuals being aware of economic disparities, and wealth disparities may be more obvious to observers in wealthier regions. Under this logic, wealthier regions may trigger greater frustrations, especially by those economically left behind.…”

“…5Scholars who do emphasize a link between diversity—particularly ethnic diversity—and terrorism generally assert that perceived ethnic tensions are less important at predicting terrorism than economic variables (Basuchoudhary and Shugart 2010), or argue that ethnicity only becomes relevant when coupled with political exclusion or other intervening factors (Choi and Piazza 2016; Hansen, Nemeth, and Mauslein 2020). …”