Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study

Lindner, Anabele; Pitombo, Cira Souza; Rocha, Samille Santos; Quintanilha, José Alberto

doi:10.1080/10095020.2016.1260811

Cited by 24 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…This geo-statistic model has been present as a predictor model in different investigations related to transport networks (Lindner, Pitombo, Rocha, & Quintanilha, 2016;Moncada, Cardona, & Escobar, 2018;Prasetiyowati, Imrona, Ummah, & Sibaroni, 2016).…”

Section: Stagementioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship Between Accessibility to Polling Places and Electoral Abstention

Escobar¹,

Cardona²,

Moncada³

2018

MAS

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One of the great factors to define the consolidation of democracy in the countries is to measure the percentage of electoral participation. For this reason, reducing abstention in electoral processes by increasing participation is one of the great challenges for the different countries that seek to move to full democracy. In this sense, Colombia has had a historical abstention of over 50% (period 1978 -2018), which can be explained by various reasons such as the presence of the armed conflict or the remote location of some polling places. For this reason, this research seeks to analyze the location of the polling places in the urban area of Manizales and Villamaría, in order to quantify their accessibility through the pedestrian network and look at the population coverage, using the integral accessibility and the ordinary Kriging method as a predictive statistical geo method for the construction of the isochronous travel time curves.

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Section: Stagementioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship Between Accessibility to Polling Places and Electoral Abstention

Escobar¹,

Cardona²,

Moncada³

2018

MAS

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“…For the construction of the isochrones curves of global average accessibility and gradient savings, for the current situation and the different analyzed scenarios, the ordinary Kriging geo-statistical model is used, with a linear semi-variogram as a structural equation (Díaz Viera, 2002;Oliver & Webster, 1990), which has been used in various investigations on issues related to transport (Escobar et al, 2018a, Lindner, Pitombo, Rocha, & Quintanilha, 2016Zhang & Wang, 2014). In this case, the average time travel vectors are used as interpolation input, in the case of the global average accessibility and the savings gradient vectors, in the case of the savings gradient.…”

Section: Construction Of Isochrones Curves Of Global Average Accessibmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Road Infrastructure Alternatives Through a Saving Gradient in Travel Times. Case Study: Second Connection Villamaría-Manizales, Colombia

Escobar¹,

Cardona²,

Moncada³

2018

MAS

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In the last century, the migration of people from rural to urban areas of cities has generated a set of dynamics in different sectors such as social, economic, educational that have led cities to collaborate among them, generating a constant synergy in order to obtain a sustained development in multiple aspects. In this sense, Manizales as the capital of the department of Caldas in Colombia has generated a conurbation with the nearest neighboring municipality, Villamaría reaching a combined population of 419 943. Although this synergy has taken place for several decades, these municipalities only have a place of connection, because they are separated by a geographical barrier, the Chinchiná River. This connection has had clear connection problems, due to the high flow of vehicles that move between both municipalities, so it is essential to project a second connection, to further boost mobility among its inhabitants. For this reason, in this research four (4) alternatives of connection are proposed, according to the suggestions of the Manizales 2017 Mobility Master Plan, through the calculation of the global average accessibility and the quantification of the gradient of savings generated in the average times of trip, based on the current situation of both cities. The results show which is the alternative that benefits population the most in terms of travel time savings, although three of them generate considerable savings and only one is discarded because it benefits a smaller number of inhabitants in very low percentages of savings compared to the others. The evaluation of infrastructure alternatives through the gradient of savings in travel times is useful to determine the best options in the pre-feasibility phase of investment projects in the transport area.

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“…Some recent studies showed the potential of geostatistics in terms of enabling the interpolation of transportation demand variables and the understanding of the spatial distribution by maps of kriging predicted values (Pitombo et al 2015a, b;Lindner et al 2016). However, it must be pointed out that there is a need for adapting to travel variables given that they are generally discrete variables and have no spatial continuity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Conjoint Approach of Spatial Statistics and a Traditional Method for Travel Mode Choice Issues

Lindner

Pitombo

2017

J geovis spat anal

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Conventional analysis of transportation demand is usually carried out using socioeconomic, travel, and land use attributes. Despite the effectiveness on travel demand forecasting, it is important to recognize that alternative approaches have been developed in recent years. Traditional methods, besides considering different explanatory variables, are appropriate to make estimates exclusively on previously surveyed households. On the other hand, recent studies have addressed spatial statistical concerns in the field of travel demand forecasting. The aim of this paper is to spatially estimate motorized travel mode choice probabilities in a continuous map using an Origin-Destination Survey database, conducted in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area in Brazil in 2007. Values were estimated in both sampled and non-sampled coordinates. This paper proposes a conjoint approach that combines the traditional procedure of travel demand forecasting (multiple logistic regression) with a spatial statistical method (ordinary kriging). A comparison is made with the one-step spatial method-indicator kriging (IK). Conjoint studies of spatial statistics and traditional methods are thriving in transportation analysis, giving rise to a travel mode choice surface in a confirmatory way. It is concluded that the proposed method can be used for future predictions of travel mode choices, unlike IK.

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Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study

Cited by 24 publications

References 20 publications

Relationship Between Accessibility to Polling Places and Electoral Abstention

Relationship Between Accessibility to Polling Places and Electoral Abstention

Evaluation of Road Infrastructure Alternatives Through a Saving Gradient in Travel Times. Case Study: Second Connection Villamaría-Manizales, Colombia

A Conjoint Approach of Spatial Statistics and a Traditional Method for Travel Mode Choice Issues

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