Estimation of measles reproduction ratios and prospects for elimination of measles by vaccination in some Western European countries

Wallinga, Jacco; Lévy-Brühl, Daniel; Wachmann, C. H.

doi:10.1017/s095026880100601x

Cited by 59 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…This measure informs various quantities important for public health such as timing of epidemic peaks and what proportion of the population must be vaccinated to prevent an outbreak (13). R0 estimates for measles are frequently reported as being between 7 and 18 (13,14), consistent with an average age at first infection of 4 to 10 y. However, because serology is generally reported in broad age bands, it may smooth out the sharpness of school epidemics, as reflected in ref.…”

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confidence: 60%

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Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics

Becker

Birger

Teillant

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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A key question in clarifying human-environment interactions is how dynamic complexity develops across integrative scales from molecular to population and global levels. Apart from its public health importance, measles is an excellent test bed for such an analysis. Simple mechanistic models have successfully illuminated measles dynamics at the city and country levels, revealing seasonal forcing of transmission as a major driver of long-term epidemic behavior. Seasonal forcing ties closely to patterns of school aggregation at the individual and community levels, but there are few explicit estimates of school transmission due to the relative lack of epidemic data at this scale. Here, we use data from a 1904 measles outbreak in schools in Woolwich, London, coupled with a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to analyze measles incidence data. Our results indicate that transmission within schools and age classes is higher than previous populationlevel serological data would suggest. This analysis sheds quantitative light on the role of school-aged children in measles cross-scale dynamics, as we illustrate with references to the contemporary vaccination landscape.cross-scale dynamics | measles | mathematical model | childhood infection | vaccine refusal

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confidence: 60%

“…15. Recent studies have argued that higher values (R0 = 30 to 57) inferred from time-series data reflect transmission within schools rather than the actual population-level average (4,14,16), underscoring the importance of school-age children in a population-level outbreak.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics

Becker

Birger

Teillant

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…It is a key epidemiological quantity, because it determines the size and duration of epidemics and is an important factor in determining targets for vaccination coverage. Although a significant body of research modelling the epidemic dynamics and on estimating the reproductive ratio of measles has been conducted in industrialized countries (see for example: Anderson and May, 1991;Bjornstad et al, 2002;Grenfell, 1995, 1996;Duncan et al, 1997;Fine and Clarkson, 1982;Grenfell, 1992;Mossong and Mullers, 2000;Wallinga et al, 2001;Xia et al, 2004), little research has focused on measles in countries with the greatest morbidity and mortality Anderson, 1988a, 1988b;Broutin et al, 2005). Policy documents, many based on the results of these mathematical models, have provided important guidance for vaccination policies in industrialized nations, but may not adequately reflect epidemiological conditions in the developing world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention

Grais¹,

Ferrari

Dubray³

et al. 2006

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygi

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SummaryThe objective of this study is to estimate the effective reproductive ratio for the [2003][2004] measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger. Using the results of a retrospective and prospective study of reported cases within Niamey during the 2003-2004 epidemic, we estimate the basic reproductive ratio, effective reproductive ratio (RE) and minimal vaccination coverage necessary to avert future epidemics using a recent method allowing for estimation based on the epidemic case series. We provide these estimates for geographic areas within Niamey, thereby identifying neighbourhoods at high risk. The estimated citywide RE was 2.8, considerably lower than previous estimates, which may help explain the long duration of the epidemic. Transmission intensity varied during the course of the epidemic and within different neighbourhoods (RE range: 1.4-4.7). Our results indicate that vaccination coverage in currently susceptible children should be increased by at least 67% (vaccine efficacy 90%) to produce a citywide vaccine coverage of 90%. This research highlights the importance of local differences in vaccination coverage on the potential impact of epidemic control measures. The spatial-temporal spread of the epidemic from district to district in Niamey over 30 weeks suggests that targeted interventions within the city could have an impact.

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“…Under the assumption of a homogeneously mixing population, R 0 for measles is estimated to be in the range 16 -18 (Anderson & May 1991). However, plausible bounds which take account of the age dependence of transmission are wider, within the range 7.17 -45.41 (Wallinga et al 2001).…”

Section: Parametrization Of Homogeneous Mixing Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles

Conlan

Rohani

Lloyd

et al. 2009

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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Measles epidemics in human populations exhibit what is perhaps the best empirically characterized, and certainly the most studied, stochastic persistence threshold in population biology. A critical community size (CCS) of around 250 000 -500 000 separates populations where measles is predominantly persistent from smaller communities where there are frequent extinctions of measles between major epidemics. The fundamental mechanisms contributing to this pattern of persistence, which are long-lasting immunity to re-infection, recruitment of susceptibles, seasonality in transmission, age dependence of transmission and the spatial coupling between communities, have all been quantified and, to a greater or lesser level of success, captured by theoretical models. Despite these successes there has not been a consensus over whether simple models can successfully predict the value of the CCS, or indeed which mechanisms determine the persistence of measles over a broader range of population sizes. Specifically, the level of the CCS has been thought to be particularly sensitive to the detailed stochastic dynamics generated by the waiting time distribution (WTD) in the infectious and latent periods. We show that the relative patterns of persistence between models with different WTDs are highly sensitive to the criterion of comparison-in particular, the statistical measure of persistence that is employed. To this end, we introduce two new statistical measures of persitence-fade-outs post epidemic and fade-outs post invasion. Contrary to previous reports, we demonstrate that, no matter the choice of persistence measure, appropriately parametrized models of measles demonstrate similar predictions for the level of the CCS.

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Estimation of measles reproduction ratios and prospects for elimination of measles by vaccination in some Western European countries

Cited by 59 publications

References 28 publications

Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics

Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics

Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention

Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles

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