Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention

Grais, RFebecca F; Ferrari, Matt J.; Dubray, Christine; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Djibo, Ali; Fermon, Florence; Guérin, Philippe J.

doi:10.1016/j.trstmh.2005.10.014

Cited by 45 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(18 reference statements)

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“…Recent analyses on the spread of this epidemic suggest that measles spreads more slowly within Niamey that previously thought [9]. This slow speed of spread may help explain the long duration of the epidemic and emphasizes the importance of further analysis of the dynamics of measles epidemics in similar contexts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Late vaccination reinforcement during a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger (2003–2004)

Dubray¹,

Gervelmeyer²,

Djibo³

et al. 2006

Vaccine

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Late vaccination reinforcement during a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger (2003–2004)

Dubray¹,

Gervelmeyer²,

Djibo³

et al. 2006

Vaccine

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“…At the beginning of both outbreaks, 10 cases were laboratory confirmed through detection of measles-specific IgM antibodies by the ministries of health of both DRC and Niger. Details on both epidemics have been described elsewhere [9][10][11]. We considered the first district (in Kinshasa) or commune (in Niamey) where cases were reported to be the index district.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the time to intervene with a reactive mass vaccination campaign in measles epidemics

Grais¹,

Radiguès²,

Dubray³

et al. 2006

Epidemiol. Infect.

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SUMMARYThe current WHO policy during measles outbreaks focuses on case management rather than reactive vaccination campaigns in urban areas of resource-poor countries having low vaccine coverage. Vaccination campaigns may be costly, or not timely enough to impact significantly on morbidity and mortality. We explored the time available for intervention during two recent epidemics. Our analysis suggests that the spread of measles in African urban settings may not be as fast as expected. Examining measles epidemic spread in Kinshasa (DRC), and Niamey (Niger) reveals a progression of smaller epidemics. Intervening with a mass campaign or in areas where cases have not yet been reported could slow the epidemic spread. The results of this preliminary analysis illustrate the importance of revisiting outbreak response plans.

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“…Epidemic models have been used by many researchers to estimate the spread of diseases. Grais [2] used epidemic model to estimate the transmission of measles in Niamey, Niger. Spatial and spatiotemporal epidemiology has been used to model the influenza dynamics in the North America [3].…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

A violence epidemic model to study trend of domestic violence, a study of tamale metropolis

Sebel

Otoo

2013

International Journal of Applied Mathematical Research

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There is a growing concern about the rise of violence on the streets and the media around the world, the possibility of an individual to be affected by violence at home is an undeniable reality facing most families around the globe. Domestic violence can take many forms including physical, psychological, sexual, and economic. It not only has devastating physical and psychological consequences on its victims, but can seriously damage the foundations of the family leading to its disintegration. There is therefore the need to find out the trend of spread in our communities, since it has the potential to slow down productivity in any society. The study used a simple continuous model for the spread of Domestic Violence, using Ordinary Differential Equations. A mathematical model is inspired from the spread of Domestic Violence in Tamale Metropolis in which the interaction of the widespread is likely to be minimized. A modeling technique of Abusive, Susceptible and Violence Victims (ASV), similar to the Susceptible, Infectious and Recovered (SIR) model in Epidemics, is used for formulating the spread of Domestic Violence as a system of Differential Equations. The system of Differential Equations is analyzed by linearization of nonlinear systems and nondimensionlization to predict the behaviour of the spread of Domestic Violence. Keywords: Abusive, domestic violence, epidemic model, infectious and recovered susceptible and violence victims.

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Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention

Cited by 45 publications

References 18 publications

Late vaccination reinforcement during a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger (2003–2004)

Late vaccination reinforcement during a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger (2003–2004)

Exploring the time to intervene with a reactive mass vaccination campaign in measles epidemics

A violence epidemic model to study trend of domestic violence, a study of tamale metropolis

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