Estimation of flood-exposed population in data-scarce regions combining satellite imagery and high resolution hydrological-hydraulic modelling: A case study in the Licungo basin (Mozambique)

Cea, Luís; Álvarez, Manuel; Puertas, Jerónimo

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101247

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 108 publications

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“…This type of discretisation of the spatial domain has already been applied in previous studies with good results (Cea et al, 2022;Komi et al, 2017;Uber et al, 2021).…”

Section: Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Several recent studies in various regions of the world concluded that Copernicus GLO-30 is the DEM with the best overall performance for hydrological modelling purposes that is currently available for free (Cea et al 2022;Garrote, 2022;Guth and Geoffroy, 2021;Maresova et al, 2021), producing a better representation of the terrain for hydrological and hydraulic computations than other commonly used 1 arc-sec DEMs, such as ALOS, ASTER, NASADEM and SRTM v3.…”

Section: Digital Elevation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model implements an unstructured finite volume solver for the 2D-SWE, allowing the user to adapt the mesh to the basin morphology, and to define a variable mesh size in different regions of the study area. This kind of modelling approach has been used in previous studies, in which its suitability for modelling rainfall-runoff transformation and overland 195 flow propagation at the catchment scale during intense flood events has been shown (Cea et al 2022;García-Alén et al 2022;Sanz-Ramos et al, 2021;Xia et al 2019). Moreover, the application and validation of Iber to event-based hydrological computations at different spatial scales has been presented in several previous studies (Cea et al, 2010;Fraga et al, 2019;García-Alén et al 2023;Sanz-Ramos et al, 2018;Sanz-Ramos et al, 2021;Tamagnone et al, 2020;Uber et al, 2021).…”

Section: Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using integrated hydrological-hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi catchment (Mozambique)

Cea¹,

Álvarez²,

Puertas³

2023

Preprint

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Abstract. On 9–13 February 2023 an intense flood event took place in the province of Maputo (Mozambique), resulting in severe damage to agricultural lands and transport infrastructure, and with serious consequences for the population. In the district of Boane, located a few kilometres downstream of the Pequenos Libombos dam, the flood destroyed many food crops as well as two bridges linking the district to Maputo, thus affecting the food security of the population. These events are quite frequent in this region, making necessary the delineation of improved flood hazard maps and the development of new flood risk management plans. We reproduce this flood event with a high resolution integrated hydrologic-hydraulic model fed with freely available global data sources, using a methodology that can be easily reproduced in other data-scarce regions. The model results are validated with observed estimations of the inflow to the Pequenos Libombos reservoir, with water marks left by the flood in the district of Boane, and with a Sentinel-1 image taken during the recession of the flood. We analyse the effect of the Pequenos Libombos reservoir on the flood hazard, which was subject to debate amongst the affected population and in the media. The results obtained show that integrated hydrologic-hydraulic models based on the two-dimensional shallow water equations, combined with global databases, are currently able to reliably reproduce extreme flood events in data-scarce basins, and are therefore very useful tools for the development of flood management plans in these regions.

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“…This type of discretisation of the spatial domain has already been applied in previous studies with good results (Cea et al, 2022;Komi et al, 2017;Uber et al, 2021).…”

Section: Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Digital Elevation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Using integrated hydrological-hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi catchment (Mozambique)

Cea¹,

Álvarez²,

Puertas³

2023

Preprint

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“…The F1 score 35 is the harmonic mean of precision (positive predictive value, PPV) and recall (hit rate, HR):…”

Section: Performance Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for surge dynamics is key to modeling tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding

Vogt,

Treu,

Mengel

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Tropical cyclone-induced storm surge is a major coastal risk which will be further amplified by rising sea levels under global warming. The surge-induced floodplains are commonly modeled using a two-step approach by first producing coastal water levels which are, secondly, translated into inundated areas. Here, we evaluate an alternative approach where ocean dynamics and coastal inundation are modeled in a single step using the open-source solver GeoClaw that accounts for the event-specific variation over time of flood drivers. We compute the surge-induced flood extents for a global set of 71 storms from 2000-2019. We show that GeoClaw better reproduces satellite observations and high water marks than two different common modeling approaches that lack a process-based representation of inundation dynamics: a state-of-the-art two-step approach combining a full-scale ocean dynamics with a static (bathtub-type) inundation model and a lightweight approach that directly translates parametric tropical cyclone wind fields into inundation maps using statistical relationships. GeoClaw does not reach the performance of the ocean dynamics model in reproducing coastal water levels, but this deficiency is overcompensated by the dynamic modeling of inundated areas. The computational efficiency of the one-step approach opens up new perspectives for global assessments of coastal risks from tropical cyclones.

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“…La aplicación de modelos hidrológicos completamente distribuidos basados en las ecuaciones de aguas someras bidimensionales, también conocidas como 2D Shallow Water Equations (2D-SWE), es cada vez más habitual en las simulaciones lluvia-escorrentía a escala de cuenca (Costabile et al, 2012;Liang et al, 2015;Fernández-Pato et al, 2018;Bellos et al, 2020;Uber et al, 2021;Cea, Álvarez, et al, 2022;García-Alén et al, 2022). Estos modelos presentan varias ventajas con respecto a los modelos agregados o semi-distribuidos, como la capacidad de incluir en sus cálculos la variabilidad espacial de la lluvia y de las propiedades físicas de la cuenca (Refsgaard, 1997).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Implementación de embalses en cálculos hidrológicos con Iber

et al. 2023

Self Cite

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La consideración del efecto laminador de los embalses en la evaluación de caudales de avenida es un aspecto fundamental en aquellas cuencas donde la hidrología está condicionada por la presencia de presas. En este trabajo se presenta la implementación de embalses y presas en el módulo hidrológico del modelo Iber, el cual resuelve las ecuaciones de aguas someras bidimensionales a escala de toda una cuenca. Para la modelización del caudal de salida del embalse se incluyen aliviaderos con y sin compuerta, desagües de fondo y la posibilidad de definir una curva de desagüe ad hoc que relacione el caudal de salida con el nivel del embalse. Como caso de estudio se modeló el efecto del embalse de Iznájar en la hidrología de la cuenca del río Genil, en España. Se consideraron tres hipótesis de cálculo con el fin de comparar el efecto de los diferentes órganos de desagüe definidos en esta nueva implementación en Iber. La metodología definida demuestra ser capaz de representar numéricamente los órganos de gestión del embalse y resolver así una limitación fundamental en el modelado de grandes cuencas con Iber.

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Estimation of flood-exposed population in data-scarce regions combining satellite imagery and high resolution hydrological-hydraulic modelling: A case study in the Licungo basin (Mozambique)

Cited by 10 publications

References 108 publications

Using integrated hydrological-hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi catchment (Mozambique)

Using integrated hydrological-hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi catchment (Mozambique)

Accounting for surge dynamics is key to modeling tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding

Implementación de embalses en cálculos hidrológicos con Iber

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