Estimation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Frequency in the United States

Feldmann, Monika; Emanuel, Kerry; Zhu, Laiyin; Lohmann, Ulrike

doi:10.1175/jamc-d-19-0011.1

Cited by 45 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…(2008) and Feldmann et al. (2019). The hurricane simulations (see example in Figure 4) utilized seven downscaled GCM scenarios from leading modeling centers.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…The spatial resolution of the dataset is 0.25° (∼25 km × 25 km) and the downscaling approach used is based on bias-correction spatial disaggregation (Thrasher et al, 2012;Wood et al, 2004). Next, a large synthetic catalog of hurricane activity and associated storm precipitation was simulated using the approaches defined in Emanuel et al (2008) and Feldmann et al (2019). The hurricane simulations (see example in Figure 4) utilized seven downscaled GCM scenarios from leading modeling centers.…”

Section: Pluvial Boundary Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

Bates

Quinn

Sampson

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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200

165

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This study reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30 m spatial resolution. Specific improvements include updated hydrography data, new methods to determine channel depth, more rigorous flood frequency analysis, output downscaling to property tract level, and inclusion of the impact of local interventions in the flooding system. For the first time, we consider pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood hazards within the same framework and provide projections for both current (rather than historic average) conditions and for future time periods centered on 2035 and 2050 under the RCP4.5 emissions pathway. Validation against high-quality local models and the entire catalog of FEMA 1% annual probability flood maps yielded Critical Success Index values in the range 0.69-0.82. Significant improvements over a previous pluvial/fluvial model version are shown for high-frequency events and coastal zones, along with minor improvements in areas where model performance was already good. The result is the first comprehensive and consistent national-scale analysis of flood hazard for the conterminous US for both current and future conditions. Even though we consider a stabilization emissions scenario and a near-future time horizon, we project clear patterns of changing flood hazard (3σ changes in 100 years inundated area of −3.8 to +16% at 1° scale), that are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area where human use is possible or in terms of the currently protected land area where the standard of flood defense protection may become compromised by this time. Plain Language Summary We develop a method to estimate past, present, and future flood risk for all properties in the conterminous United States whether affected by river, coastal or rainfall flooding. The analysis accounts for variability within environmental factors including changes in sea level rise, hurricane intensity and landfall locations, precipitation patterns, and river discharge. We show that even for a conservative climate change trajectory we can expect locally significant changes in the land area at risk from floods by 2050, and by this time defenses protecting 2,200 km 2 of land may be compromised. The complete dataset has been made available via a website (https://floodfactor.com/) created by the First Street Foundation in order to increase public awareness of the threat posed by flooding to safety and livelihoods. BATES ET AL.

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“…(2008) and Feldmann et al. (2019). The hurricane simulations (see example in Figure 4) utilized seven downscaled GCM scenarios from leading modeling centers.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Pluvial Boundary Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

Bates

Quinn

Sampson

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

Self Cite

200

165

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…To account for climate change, both up to 2020 and to 2050, we adopt a change factor approach. A large synthetic catalogue of hurricane events based on the methods of Emanuel et al 41 and Feldmann et al 42 was simulated using 7 downscaled general circulation model (GCM) scenarios to yield 55,000 years of synthetic hurricanes for each time horizon. 55,000 annual maximum (AMAX) daily rainfall accumulations were then extracted.…”

Section: Hazard Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

U.S. flood risk in the Anthropocene

Wing

Lehman

Bates

et al. 2021

Preprint

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A national depiction of high-resolution flood risk estimates has previously been thought to be beyond the grasp of reasonable computational capabilities. However, recent developments in inundation modelling now permit the first comprehensive national flood risk assessment of the US, which indicates an expected annual direct damage to property of 27 billion USD in 2020’s climate. Current flood risk is disproportionately borne by poorer and more White communities, and is concentrated on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, the Northeast through Appalachia, and the Pacific Northwest. Under a medium-case concentration pathway (RCP4.5), we project a 37% increase in risk by 2050 due to climate change alone. This climate signal appears to disproportionately impact Black communities, with risk increases concentrated again on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Medium-case (SSP2) projections of population change cause flood risk increases that dwarf the impact of climate change by 4:1, illustrating the need for a holistic view on changes in risk with consideration of all its constituent causes. These results make clear the desperate need for adaptation to flood and emergent climate risks in the US, with mitigation required to prevent acceleration of this risk into the latter half of the century. These results can and should inform zoning, regulations, and targeted adaptation policies, as well as motivate wide reaching reforms in how flood risk and emergencies are managed.

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“…They found that the rainfall climatology estimated from the coupled simulation compares well with that from observations. Feldmann et al (2019) used the same coupling method as Zhu et al (2013) and TCRM with an updated drag coefficient specification to evaluate the estimated TC rainfall climatology in the coastal United States. They found that, in general, the coupled simulation can generate TC rainfall climatology comparable to that estimated from gauge and radar observations; however, the performance of the model is less satisfactory for regions with a large surface roughness gradient.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model for Risk Assessment

Lin

Smith

2020

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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Heavy rainfall generated by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause extreme flooding. A physics-based TC rainfall model (TCRM) has been developed and coupled with a TC climatology model to study TC rainfall climatology. In this study, we evaluate TCRM with rainfall observations made by satellite (of North Atlantic TCs from 1999 to 2018) and radar (of 36 US landfalling TCs); we also examine the influence on the rainfall estimation of the key input to TCRM – the wind profile. We found that TCRM can simulate relatively well the rainfall from TCs that have a coherent and compact structure and limited interaction with other meteorological systems. The model can simulate the total rainfall from TCs well although it often overestimates rainfall in the inner core of TCs, slightly underestimates rainfall in the outer regions, and renders a less asymmetric rainfall structure than the observations. It can capture rainfall distribution in coastal areas relatively well but may underestimate rainfall maximums in mountainous regions and has less capability to accurately simulate TC rainfall in higher latitudes. Also, it can capture the interannual variability of TC rainfall and averaged features of the time series of TC rainfall but cannot accurately reproduce the probability distribution of short-term (1-hour) rainfall. Among the tested theoretical wind profile inputs to TCRM, a complete wind profile that accurately describes the wind structure in both the inner ascending and outer descending regions of the storm is found to perform the best in accurately generating various rainfall metrics.

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Estimation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Frequency in the United States

Cited by 45 publications

References 28 publications

Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates

U.S. flood risk in the Anthropocene

Evaluation of a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model for Risk Assessment

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