Estimation and forecasting of carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired thermal power plants in Ukraine

Abstract

Purpose. Development and verification of a method for calculating and forecasting CO2 emissions from coal combustion at thermal power plants based on proximate analysis data. Calculation of gross and specific CO2 emissions per unit of output energy and mass of coal consumed at Ukrainian thermal power plants (TPPs). Methodology. Methods of mathematical statistics were used for processing the data of ultimate and proximate analysis of 170samples of A, L, G, and LFG coal ranks with low heat value on operating state in the range of 17.2 to 31.0 MJ/kg and ash content on dry state (Ad) in the range of 3.8 to 38.0% to determine relationships between carbon emission factors (kc), calorific value, and ash content. Findings. The values of emission factors and gross CO2 emissions for mixtures of coals of grades A and L, G and LFG at Ukrainian TPPs in 20172021 were calculated. For 2021, the average value of for coals of grades G and LFG was 94,128 g/GJ, and for coals of grades A and L it was 104,987 g/GJ. Gross CO2 emissions at Ukrainian TPPs have been in the range of 3849million tons in recent years, and their annual reduction is due to a decrease in energy production and fuel consumption at TPPs, primarily of grades A and L. Originality. Empirical dependencies kc for steam coal of different ranks are determined in the form of The coefficients a, b, and c are determined for grades A, L, G, and LFG and their mixtures. The relationship between the carbon content in coal and the low heat value for coal is linear: where K is a coefficient depending on the coal grade. The values of K are determined for coal of grades A, L, G, and LFG. Practical value. Verification of the created method shows that the calculation error is less than 1.0%. This is in line with the requirements of the Monitoring Procedure and Directive 2003/87/EC. In 2021, the specific CO2 emission per unit of output energy at TPPs in Ukraine was 1,084 g/kWh for all ranks of steam coal. The values of specific CO2 emissions per unit mass of consumed coal were 1.94 t/t for coals of all grades, 1.91 t/t for grades G and LFG, and 2.21 t/t for grades A and L. The official annual reports of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine contain information on the amount of produced electricity, consumed coal, and forecast balances of electricity production at TPPs, therefore, the values of specific emissions established by us are convenient to use for estimating and forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.