Estimating Thermal Regimes of Bull Trout and Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Warming on Critical Habitats

Jones, Leslie; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy; McGlynn, B. L.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

doi:10.1002/rra.2638

Cited by 75 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 47 publications

(76 reference statements)

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“…Numerous studies on the impact of recent or projected climate change on the thermal regimes of surface water bodies and the associated impact for cold-water fish habitats have already been conducted (e.g., Kaushal et al, 2010;van Vliet et al, 2011van Vliet et al, , 2013Wenger et al, 2011;Isaak et al, 2012;Wu et al, 2012;Jones et al, 2014), but the thermal sensitivity of shallow aquifers to climate change is a relatively unstudied phenomenon (e.g., Brielmann et al, 2009Brielmann et al, , 2011Taylor and Stefan, 2009;Kurylyk et al, , 2014a. The thermal response of GWT to climate change is of particular interest to river temperature analysts, as the thermal regimes of base-flow-dominated streams or rivers and hydraulically connected aquifers are inextricable linked (Hayashi and Rosenberry, 2002;Tague et al, 2007;Risley et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change

Menberg

Blum

Kurylyk

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

125

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Abstract. Climate change is known to have a considerable influence on many components of the hydrological cycle. Yet, the implications for groundwater temperature, as an important driver for groundwater quality, thermal use and storage, are not yet comprehensively understood. Furthermore, few studies have examined the implications of climate-change-induced groundwater temperature rise for groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we examine the coupling of atmospheric and groundwater warming by employing stochastic and deterministic models. Firstly, several decades of temperature time series are statistically analyzed with regard to climate regime shifts (CRSs) in the long-term mean. The observed increases in shallow groundwater temperatures can be associated with preceding positive shifts in regional surface air temperatures, which are in turn linked to global air temperature changes. The temperature data are also analyzed with an analytical solution to the conductionadvection heat transfer equation to investigate how subsurface heat transfer processes control the propagation of the surface temperature signals into the subsurface. In three of the four monitoring wells, the predicted groundwater temperature increases driven by the regime shifts at the surface boundary condition generally concur with the observed groundwater temperature trends. Due to complex interactions at the ground surface and the heat capacity of the unsaturated zone, the thermal signals from distinct changes in air temperature are damped and delayed in the subsurface, causing a more gradual increase in groundwater temperatures. These signals can have a significant impact on largescale groundwater temperatures in shallow and economically important aquifers. These findings demonstrate that shallow groundwater temperatures have responded rapidly to recent climate change and thus provide insight into the vulnerability of aquifers and groundwater-dependent ecosystems to future climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change

Menberg

Blum

Kurylyk

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

125

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“…Stream thermal regimes are likely to respond to changes in hydroclimatic regimes (Cristea and Burges 2010), as the capacity for streams to store heat is inversely proportional to volume (Poole and Berman 2001;Webb et al 2003). Degradation of thermal habitat as a result of anthropogenic and natural disturbance, coupled with competition from introduced species, will likely further reduce habitat availability for native salmonids in the Rocky Mountains (Meyer et al 1999;Isaak et al 2012a;Isaak et al 2012b;Jones et al 2013). Therefore, it is important to understand how hydrologic and thermal regimes of mountain streams will respond to climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Potential future climate effects on mountain hydrology, stream temperature, and native salmonid life history

MacDonaldRyan

BoonSarah

ByrneJames

et al. 2014

Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci.

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Native salmonids of western North America are subject to many environmental pressures, most notably the effects of introduced species and environmental degradation. To better understand how native salmonids on the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains may respond to future changes in climate, we applied a process-based approach to hydrologic and stream temperature modelling. This study demonstrates that stream thermal regimes in western Alberta, Canada, may only warm during the summer period, while colder thermal regimes during spring, fall, and winter could result from response to earlier onset of spring freshet. Model results of future climate impacts on hydrology and stream temperature are corroborated by an intercatchment comparison of stream temperature, air temperature, and hydrological conditions. Earlier fry emergence as a result of altered hydrological and thermal regimes may favour native westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisii) in isolated headwater streams. Colder winter stream temperatures could result in longer incubation periods for native bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and limit threatened westslope cutthroat trout habitat.Résumé : Les salmonidés indigènes de l'ouest de l'Amérique du Nord sont assujettis à de nombreuses pressions ambiantes, notamment les effets d'espèces introduites et de la dégradation de l'environnement. Afin d'établir une meilleure compréhen-sion de la réaction possible des salmonidés indigènes sur le versant est de Rocheuses canadiennes aux changements climatiques futurs, nous avons appliqué une approche axée sur les processus à la modélisation de l'hydrologie et de la température des cours d'eau. L'étude démontre que les régimes thermiques des cours d'eau dans l'ouest de l'Alberta (Canada) pourraient ne se réchauffer que durant la période estivale, alors que des régimes thermiques plus froids au printemps, à l'automne et en hiver pourraient découler du devancement des crues printanières. Les résultats de la modélisation des impacts climatiques futurs sur l'hydrologie et la température des cours d'eau sont corroborés par la comparaison de la température des cours d'eau, de la température de l'air et des conditions hydrologiques dans différents bassins versants. L'émergence devancée des alevins décou-lant de la modification des régimes hydrologiques et thermiques pourrait favoriser la truite fardée versant (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisii) dans des cours d'eau d'amont isolés. La diminution des températures hivernales des cours d'eau pourrait se traduire par de plus longues périodes d'incubation pour l'omble à tête plate (Salvelinus confluentus) indigène et limiter l'habitat de la truite fardée versant, une espèce menacée. [Traduit par la Rédaction]

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“…Many fish biologists have focused on weekly, monthly, or summer-only metrics of stream temperature to relate warm conditions to trout distributions [Al-Chokhachy et al, 2013b;Jones et al, 2014]. However, daily temperatures are useful because they can be used to understand and model activity or detection conditional on the thermal conditions at the time of sampling [Kery, 2010;Hocking et al, 2013;Milanovich et al, 2015].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature for regional predictions

Hocking

O'Neil

Letcher

2018

Preprint

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Key Points:• Flexible approach to modeling daily stream temperature across broad space • Hierarchical modeling approach allows for inclusion of short observed stream temperature time series to fine-tune estimates to local conditions • Air temperature effects on stream temperature were moderated by precipitation and drainage area AbstractStream temperature is an important exogenous factor influencing populations of stream organisms such as fish, amphibians, and invertebrates. Many states regulate stream protections based on temperature. Therefore, stream temperature models are important, particularly for estimating thermal regimes in unsampled space and time. To help meet this need, we developed a hierarchical model of daily stream temperature and applied it across the eastern United States. Our model accommodates many of the key challenges associated with daily stream temperature models including the lagged response of water temperature to changes in air temperature, incomplete and widely-varying observed time series, spatial and temporal autocorrelation, and the inclusion of predictors other than air temperature. We used 248,517 daily stream temperature records from 1,352 streams to fit our model and 100,909 records were withheld for model validation. Our model had a root mean squared error of 0.61 C for the fitted data and 2.03 C for the validation data, indicating excellent fit and good predictive power for understanding regional temperature patterns. We then used our model to predict daily stream temperatures from 1980 -2015 for all streams <200 km 2 from Maine to Virginia. From these, we calculated derived stream metrics including mean July temperature, mean summer temperature, and the thermal sensitivity of each stream reach to changes in air temperature. Although generally water temperature follows similar latitudinal and altitudinal patterns as air temperature, there are considerable differences at the reach scale based on landscape and land-use factors.

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Estimating Thermal Regimes of Bull Trout and Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Warming on Critical Habitats

Cited by 75 publications

References 47 publications

Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change

Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change

Potential future climate effects on mountain hydrology, stream temperature, and native salmonid life history

A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature for regional predictions

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