Estimating the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease by a dynamic model

Chen, Shuilian; Yang, Dong; Liu, Ruchun; Zhao, Jin; Yang, Kewei; Chen, Tianmu

doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2019.05.032

Cited by 36 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In this study, we used the R 0 to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Commonly, R 0 was defined as the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population [13,16,17]. If R 0 > 1, the outbreak will occur.…”

Section: The Simplified Reservoir-people Transmission Network Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

et al. 2020

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Background: As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. Methods: In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results: The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Conclusions: Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.

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Section: The Simplified Reservoir-people Transmission Network Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

et al. 2020

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“…The simulation methods were as previously described [17,[29][30][31][32]. According to our previous published studies [33,34], we assumed that heterogeneity of the transmissibility existed during an ascending trend and a descending trend. The annual data were therefore divided into numerous parts and the simulated time step was a day; for example, the data of 2010 were divided into 13 parts (Fig.…”

Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals: a modeling study in Hubei Province, China

et al. 2020

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Background: Developing countries exhibit a high disease burden from shigellosis. Owing to the different incidences in males and females, this study aims to analyze the features involved in the transmission of shigellosis among male (subscript m) and female (subscript f) individuals using a newly developed sex-based model. Methods:The data of reported shigellosis cases were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017. A sex-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/ Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to explore the dataset, and a sex-age-based SEIAR model was applied in 2010 to explore the sex-and age-specific transmissions.Results: From 2005 to 2017, 130 770 shigellosis cases (including 73 981 male and 56 789 female cases) were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model exhibited a significant fitting effect with the shigellosis data (P < 0.001). The median values of the shigellosis transmission were 2.3225 × 10 8 for SAR mm (secondary attack rate from male to male), 2.5729 × 10 8 for SAR mf , 2.7630 × 10 -8 for SAR fm , and 2.1061 × 10 -8 for SAR ff . The top five mean values of the transmission relative rate in 2010 (where the subscript 1 was defined as male and age ≤ 5 years, 2 was male and age 6 to 59 years, 3 was male and age ≥ 60 years, 4 was female and age ≤ 5 years, 5 was female and age 6 to 59 years, and 6 was male and age ≥ 60 years) were 5.76 × 10 -8 for β 61 , 5.32 × 10 -8 for β 31 , 4.01 × 10 -8 for β 34 , 7.52 × 10 -9 for β 62 , and 6.04 × 10 -9 for β 64 .Conclusions: The transmissibility of shigellosis differed among male and female individuals. The transmissibility between the genders was higher than that within the genders, particularly female-to-male transmission. The most important route in children (age ≤ 5 years) was transmission from the elderly (age ≥ 60 years). Therefore, the greatest interventions should be applied in females and the elderly.

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“…Our previous study shows that the susceptible-infectious-removed model could be used to calculate the transmissibility of HFMD based on weekly incidence data [11]. In this study, daily incidence data were employed.…”

Section: Transmission Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonality of the transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China

Huang

Wang²,

Qiu

et al. 2019

Epidemiol. Infect.

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This study attempts to figure out the seasonality of the transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). A mathematical model was established to calculate the transmissibility based on the reported data for HFMD in Xiamen City, China from 2014 to 2018. The transmissibility was measured by effective reproduction number (Reff) in order to evaluate the seasonal characteristics of HFMD. A total of 43 659 HFMD cases were reported in Xiamen, for the period 2014 to 2018. The median of annual incidence was 221.87 per 100 000 persons (range: 167.98/100,000–283.34/100 000). The reported data had a great fitting effect with the model (R2 = 0.9212, P < 0.0001), it has been shown that there are two epidemic peaks of HFMD in Xiamen every year. Both incidence and effective reproduction number had seasonal characteristics. The peak of incidence, 1–2 months later than the effective reproduction number, occurred in Summer and Autumn, that is, June and October each year. Both the incidence and transmissibility of HFMD have obvious seasonal characteristics, and two annual epidemic peaks as well. The peak of incidence is 1–2 months later than Reff.

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Estimating the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease by a dynamic model

Cited by 36 publications

References 22 publications

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals: a modeling study in Hubei Province, China

Seasonality of the transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China

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