A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

Abstract

Background: As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. Methods: In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results: The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Conclusions: Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.

Estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran using epidemic modeling

“…In the second week the working time reduced and effective reproduction number decreased to 4.29 from 13 th day to 16 th . Comparing to the other researches, the results showed that R of COVID-19 in Iran in the early stages were higher than the previous estimated basic reproduction number [1][2][8] [9][10] [11].…”

“…Previous studies estimated basic reproduction number between 2.2 and 4. Chen et.al [1] showed that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 was 3.58 using the reported data in Wuhan City, China. Read et.al [8] showed that the ܴ of COVID-19 was between 3.6 and 4.…”

Challenges of managing the asymptomatic carriers of SARS-CoV-2

“…Besides hospitalized or confirmed cases, many asymptomatic individuals potentially carry the virus. Thus, diagnosing the patients and finding the asymptomatic carriers will help us understand the exact viral transmission routes.Simulation studies can mathematically modelthe contribution of the asymptomatic carriers in person-person viral transmission [4], highlighting thatfulminating cases are unlikely to be the only viral sources. Reportedly, the viral load in an asymptomatic carrier is akin to that in a symptomatic patient; thus, asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic patientsare likelyto transmit the virus as well as symptomatic patients.…”

Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province

“…Their estimations based on likelihood and model analysis showed that R 0 with control measures might be as high as 6.47 ( [5]). Most recently, Chen et al ( [11]) developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model to simulate the potential transmission from the infectious sources to human. The estimated values of R 0 were 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person.…”