Estimating the total size of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria via different approaches

Rezki, Mohamed

doi:10.1101/2020.07.29.20164509

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 9 publications

(11 reference statements)

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“…Multiple models have been achieved in Algeria to forecast the epidemic or to evaluate the preventive implemented measure with different approaches including local, regional and global studies (Balah and Djeddou, 2020;Belkacem, 2020;Ben Hassen et al, 2020;Bentout et al, 2020;Boudrioua and Boudrioua, 2020;Daw and El Bouzebdei, 2020;Hamidouche, 2020;Moussaoui and Auger, 2020;Nail et al, 2020;Rahmani, 2020;Rezki, 2020;Rouabah et al, 2020;Zhao et al, 2020). These studies used the most common SIR (Boudrioua and Boudrioua, 2020;Rezki, 2020) and SEIR (Belkacem, 2020;Bentout et al, 2020;Moussaoui and Auger, 2020;Peng et al, 2020;Rouabah et al, 2020) models or other mathematical models such as ARFIMA (Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average Models) (Balah and Djeddou, 2020) and the Alg-COVID-19 Model (Rahmani, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria

Lounis

Azevedo

2021

EUR J SUSTAIN DEV RE

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The novel coronavirus disease 2019 reported in Wuhan is continuing to impress the world by its fast spread and the number of affected persons attracting an unprecedented attention.In this article, the classical SEIR model and a generalized SEIR model called SEIRDP were applied to predict the evolution of COVID-19 in Algeria for a future period of 100 days using official reported data from early April to early August, 2020. Initial evaluation showed that the two models had a net correspondence with the reported data during this period for cumulative infected cases but the number of cumulative deaths was underestimated with the classical SEIR model. Model prediction with the SEIRDP concluded that the number of cumulative infected cases will increase in the next days reaching a number of about 60 k in middle November with a median of about 300 daily cases. Also, the number of estimated deaths will be around 2k. These results suggest that the COVID-19 is ongoing to infect more persons which may push national authorities to carefully act in the probable leaving of containment.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria

Lounis

Azevedo

2021

EUR J SUSTAIN DEV RE

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“…Multiple models have been achieved in Algeria to forecast the epidemic or to evaluate the preventive implemented measure with different approaches including local, regional and global studies [4, 6, 7,8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18]. These studies used the most common SIR[6, 7] and SEIR [4, 8, 9, 15,19] models or other mathematical models such as AFRIMA (Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average Models ) [12]and the Alg-COVID-19 Model [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of a generalized SEIR model for covid-19 in Algeria

Lounis

Azevedo

2020

Preprint

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The novel coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan is continuing to impress the world by its fast spread and the number of affected persons attracting an unprecedented attention. In this article, we used the classical SEIR model and a generalized SEIR model called SEIRDP model inspired in a model previously used during the outbreak in China to predict the evolution of COVID-19 in Algeria for a future period of 100 days using official reported data from early April to early August, 2020. Initial evaluation showed that the two models had a net correspondence with the reported data during this period for cumulative infected cases but the number of cumulative deaths was underestimated with the classical SEIR model. Model prediction with the SEIRDP concluded that the number of cumulative infected cases will increase in the next days reaching a number of about 60 k in middle November with a median of about 300 daily cases. Also, the number of estimated deaths will be around 2k. These results suggest that the COVID-19 is ongoing to infect more persons which may push national authorities to carefully act in the probable leaving of containment.

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Assessing the Accuracy of Early COVID-19 Case and Fatality Model Projections in Africa

Mabuka¹,

Craig²,

Schueller³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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ObjectiveWe compared reported COVID-19 case, fatality, and peak date data for Africa Union (AU) member states with estimates and projections produced by various mathematical models to assess their accuracy in the context of an ongoing pandemic and identify key gaps to improve the utility of models in the future.MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature review to identify studies published in any language between January and December 2020 that reported results of COVID-19 modeling analyses for any AU member state. Reported COVID-19 case, fatality, peak date, and testing rate data were obtained. Descriptive, bivariate, and meta-analyses were conducted to compare reported data to model-generated estimates. FindingsFor included countries in the respective model simulation periods, model-predicted cumulative cases ranged from 2 to 76,213,155 while model-predicted cumulative deaths ranged from 8 to 700,000. The difference between reported and predicted cumulative COVID-19 cases was between -99.3 % to 1.44×106 % with most values being above 24.7%, and the difference between reported and predicted cumulative COVID-19 deaths for models reviewed was between -2.0 % to 2.73×105 % with most values being above 50.0%. The difference in the predicted and reported dates for the first epidemic wave peak was between -242 Days to 249 Days.ConclusionFor the first COVID-19 epidemic wave, epidemiological model results were observed to have high precision but low accuracy when compared to reported peak case date and cumulative cases and deaths indicating that these data were either under-reported or model-overestimated.

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Estimating the total size of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria via different approaches

Cited by 3 publications

References 9 publications

Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria

Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria

Application of a generalized SEIR model for covid-19 in Algeria

Assessing the Accuracy of Early COVID-19 Case and Fatality Model Projections in Africa

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